The Week in Defence: Ukraine Peace Force and the Undersea Front – 31 Oct – 6 Nov 2026

This edition covers Saturday 31 October to Friday 6 November 2026. Planning for a multinational force in Ukraine moved from paper to the training area, the state of the submarine enterprise came under fresh scrutiny at home and in Australia, and a string of cyber incidents, hoax bomb threats and drone disruption kept home resilience in the headlines.

A peace force for Ukraine moves to the training area

The clearest signal of the week came from the MoD: the UK and France will jointly lead Exercise Koalicja in Poland from 9 to 22 November. It is the first major exercise of the Multinational Force Ukraine, and the UK contribution includes 300 personnel from 7 Brigade, RAF Typhoons and a Voyager, among 2,800 troops from 11 nations. Updated government guidance describes the force as the military component of the Coalition of the Willing, with planning continuing on an enduring basis.

Two other strands sharpened the picture. Western officials said British troops would be allowed to fire back at Russian forces if attacked during a future mission to secure a peace. And US envoy Steve Witkoff said Washington will mediate trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, with US negotiators meeting the UK, France, Germany, the EU and NATO in Brussels on security guarantees. In parallel, the Defence Secretary and his German counterpart Boris Pistorius held the second Defence Ministerial Council under the Trinity House Agreement, and the UK and the Netherlands set out deeper cooperation through NATO, the Joint Expeditionary Force and a joint Amphibious Transport Ship programme.

Why it matters: rules of engagement, a named exercise and a standing guidance page suggest planning is maturing from political offer towards a force that could deploy, even while the war goes on. A guided-bomb attack on an aid centre in Komyshuvakha that killed at least 31 people was a reminder of how far there is to go.

Sources: GOV.UK (Exercise Koalicja), GOV.UK (Multinational Force-Ukraine), Sky News, The Guardian (Abu Dhabi talks), GOV.UK (UK-Germany), GOV.UK (UK-Netherlands), The Guardian (Komyshuvakha)

Submarines, the seabed and an AUKUS challenge

A briefing from the 878 Institute said no Astute class submarine was operationally deployed through summer 2026, and argued for two boats at sea at all times: one countering Russian submarine activity around British waters and one supporting the deterrent. The supporting infrastructure is moving, if unevenly. Babcock entered main construction on the redevelopment of 10 Dock at Devonport for submarine deep maintenance, while the MoD said the separate Submarine Waterfront Infrastructure Future berth programme there still faces challenges. Facility upgrades for Dreadnought reactor core production at Rolls-Royce Submarines have been delivered, and a written answer kept the first Dreadnought on track for service in the early 2030s.

The seabed itself is a growing commitment. Ministers said the Defence Investment Plan adds £330m for critical underwater infrastructure protection, including enhancements to RFA Proteus. Royal Navy Merlins tracked a Vishnya-class intelligence ship as it watched NATO warships on Exercise Strike Warrior, and DE&S awarded HII Unmanned Systems £303m for eight Mine Hunting Capability Block 2 mission systems, alongside £8m to Leonardo UK for Mode 5 IFF sets for the same programme.

Abroad, a public inquiry in Australia led by Peter Garrett and former defence chief Adm Chris Barrie called AUKUS the country’s “worst, riskiest and most costly” defence decision and urged that the submarine deal be suspended. The call shows the political exposure of a programme in which the UK holds SSN-AUKUS design authority, as a written answer on HII’s advisory role confirmed this week.

Sources: UK Defence Journal (Astute), UK Defence Journal (10 Dock), UK Defence Journal (berths), UK Defence Journal (reactor cores), Written answer 36926 (Dreadnought), Written answer 37301 (undersea protection), UK Defence Journal (spy ship), The Guardian (AUKUS inquiry), Written answer 38894 (SSN-AUKUS)

Hybrid threats and the home front

The NCSC’s annual review warned that AI-powered malware is highly likely to be used in a ransomware attack on UK critical national infrastructure by 2028. The same week, a cyber-attack that switched supermarket freezers to defrost in seven European countries reached the UK, where the NCSC said it knew of a couple of cases and meat suppliers reported tampered cold units. Hoax bomb threats then hit flights twice in a week, including two from UK airports and later threats to Heathrow and Birmingham that were assessed as not credible. Unauthorised drone activity also led to flight cancellations at Jersey Airport on two nights running.

Government is trying to get ahead of this. A written answer described Exercise ALBISTON SHADOW in 2027 as the largest UK home defence exercise in decades, testing preparedness for hybrid attacks through a refreshed Government War Book. The Integrated Security Fund report put 2025-26 spending at more than £800m across over 20 departments, and the Commons Library published briefings on Russia’s hybrid campaign in Europe and on Iranian state threats. On wildfires, the RAF is buying a containerised firefighting kit for the A400M for the 2027 season, and the MoD said it holds 12 Bambi buckets. The Defence Secretary even said he had started keeping emergency supplies at home.

Sources: The Guardian (NCSC review), BBC (freezer attack), BBC (hoax threats), BBC (Jersey), Written answer 37802 (ALBISTON SHADOW), HCWS451 (Integrated Security Fund), Commons Library (hybrid warfare), Written answer 38935 (A400M firefighting), The Guardian (stockpiling)

Trends to watch

• Industrial sovereignty. A new offsets policy can require overseas firms to return up to the full contract value in UK benefits, the Chancellor cited Norway’s Type 26 deal as a model, and Sky News reported the Prime Minister is reviewing a decision to give the SKYNET military satellite contract to a US firm.
• Uncrewed and counter-drone capability. The Nyan strike drone flew from HMS Queen Elizabeth, the Defence Investment Plan commits £490m to directed energy weapons and £150m to uncrewed ground vehicles, and Skyhammer has been integrated with elements of ORCUS.
• Money still tight. The Defence Secretary rejected claims of kicking 3% decisions into next year’s spending review, while the MoD confirmed several Army exercises have been fully or partially cancelled this financial year.

Sources: UK Defence Journal (offsets), UK Defence Journal (Norway), Sky News (SKYNET), UK Defence Journal (Nyan), Written answer 38696 (directed energy), Written answer 37606 (UGVs), Written answer 38687 (Skyhammer), BBC (spending), Written answer 38297 (exercises)

Contract announcements

Contract, tender and planning notices reported in the Think Defence daily updates this week. Dates are those of the daily update; values are as stated in the notice. No contract items were reported on 1 or 2 November.

• 31 Oct · Award · Leonardo UK · £8m ex. VAT · DE&S: 12 Mode 5 IFF sets with supporting equipment and support for Mine Hunting Capability Block 2 · Find a Tender 103307-2026
• 31 Oct · Planning notice (DIO) · Not yet awarded · est. £5.17m ex. VAT · Technical and professional support for asset valuation and condition surveys as PFI contracts across the England estate come to an end · Find a Tender 103105-2026
• 31 Oct · Request for information · Not yet awarded · indicative c.£1.67m ex. VAT · UK Defence Innovation: air transportable isolators for high consequence infectious disease medical evacuation · Find a Tender 103008-2026
• 31 Oct · Award · Accuracy International · £416,666 ex. VAT · Enabling contract for through-life support, maintenance and repair of L115A3, L115A4, L118A2 and L121A2 sniper rifles · Find a Tender 103067-2026
• 31 Oct · Planning notice · Not yet awarded · est. £1.2m ex. VAT · DE&S: replacement metal laundry equipment, including shot blasting, phosphating, degreasing and paint stripping, with in-service support · Find a Tender 103157-2026
• 3 Nov · Award · VE3 Global · £444,550 ex. VAT · Project Vesta: a Defence-wide modelling and simulation knowledge base · Find a Tender 103949-2026
• 3 Nov · Planning notice (framework) · Babcock Land Defence, as agent to the MoD · est. £35m ex. VAT · 15-lot framework (IRM25/7712) for repair and calibration of general purpose test equipment · Find a Tender 103798-2026
• 3 Nov · Updated notice · Not yet awarded · £1.2m ex. VAT · DE&S: 240 replenishment-at-sea support vehicles for the three Fleet Solid Support ships; deliveries Jan 2029 to autumn 2032 · Find a Tender 103637-2026
• 3 Nov · Award · Probrand · £380,513 · Telecommunications hardware and ancillaries through the RM6098 TEPAS 2 framework · Contracts Finder
• 4 Nov · Award · HII Unmanned Systems, Inc. · £303m ex. VAT · DE&S: eight Mine Hunting Capability Block 2 mission systems, including UUVs, launch and recovery systems, equipment and in-service support · Find a Tender 104308-2026
• 4 Nov · Award · MBDA UK · Value not stated · Study on the viability of integrating the Mk41 vertical launching system with the Aster 30 missile · Find a Tender 104123-2026
• 4 Nov · Planning notice · Not yet awarded · est. £3.8m ex. VAT · Survive, Evade, Resist and Escape (SERE) training for fast jet aircrew and other users · Find a Tender 104281-2026
• 4 Nov · Award · Orchid Cellmark · £1.167m ex. VAT · Forensic scientific support and reporting to the Service Police · Find a Tender 104064-2026
• 4 Nov · Planning notice (DIO) · Not yet awarded · Value not stated · Three-year contract from April 2027 for a digital NEC4 contract management tool supporting capital programmes including DEOP and Clyde · Find a Tender 104282-2026
• 4 Nov · Award (FDIS supply chain, via Amey) · Ser Contractor · £1.19m · Internal refurbishment of 13 properties in Colchester · Contracts Finder
• 5 Nov · Planning notice (market engagement) · Not yet awarded · est. £2bn · National Armaments Director Group: overseas facilities management for the Permanent Joint Operating Bases and the Germany and wider Europe estate · Find a Tender 104648-2026
• 5 Nov · Timeline update · Not yet awarded · Value not stated · Next Generation Red Air: market engagement Q1 2027, procurement questionnaire Q2 2028, contract award Q1 2030, delivery likely 2031 or later · Find a Tender 104887-2026
• 5 Nov · Award · University of Strathclyde · £304,167 ex. VAT · Project Lodestone: development and sea trials of a second-generation quantum magnetic navigation sensor · Find a Tender 104604-2026
• 5 Nov · Award · Supplier not stated · £800,000 ex. VAT · Aerial targets for Exercise Formidable Shield 2027 · Find a Tender 104668-2026
• 5 Nov · Award · 2Excel Aviation · Value not stated · Live flying training module for intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance trainees · Find a Tender 104497-2026
• 5 Nov · Tender · Not yet awarded · £1.556m ex. VAT · Light aircraft and pilot to support RAF Falcons parachute display training and seasons, three years from March 2027 · Find a Tender 104724-2026
• 6 Nov · Award · Serco · £144.46m ex. VAT · Lyneham Technical Training Partnership: engineering and technical training at MOD Lyneham, including the Defence Schools of Electrical and Mechanical Engineering and of Aeronautical Engineering; starts 19 Nov 2026 · Find a Tender 104997-2026
• 6 Nov · Award · Ether NDE · £998,985 ex. VAT · DE&S: dynamic rotary guns and conductivity testers for the non-destructive testing community · Find a Tender 105295-2026
• 6 Nov · Award · Airtec · £887,000 ex. VAT · Resupply, repair and maintenance of CYPRES automatic activation devices on Airborne Forces parachute systems · Find a Tender 105105-2026
• 6 Nov · Award (SDA) · NESC · Value not published · Nuclear site safety justification services at HMNB Devonport, including safety case production and periodic safety reviews · Find a Tender 105013-2026
• 6 Nov · Award · Marlborough Communications · £870,000 ex. VAT · Communications ancillaries and hearing protection equipment with in-service support, April 2027 to March 2030 · Contracts Finder

SME Update

PARALLAX fits between a platform’s GNSS antenna and its receiver, mixing the real satellite signal with controlled jamming or spoofing across any GNSS constellation based on virtual jammers and realistic RF modelling over terrain. The receiver sees a contested environment; but nothing is radiated meaning no complicated regulatory paperwork and permissions.

It works with any GNSS receiver on any platform with no integration work, so it can go on vehicles, ships, and uncrewed systems, enabling users to exercise exactly as they’d expect to operate.

Read more at the link below

https://forceeffect.co.uk/products/parallax/

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