Vote leave or vote remain, but please vote knowing that Britain is Great…
Anyone who thinks otherwise is obviously uneducated, or French.
Without Great Britain the world would be a poorer place in every regard.
Let’s just remind ourselves why…
We gave the world democracy, common law, the Bailey Bridge, tanks, gravity, the worlds most common second language, Led Zeppelin, fair play, queuing, the backhoe loader, metal bridges, the Magna Carta, modern economics, the industrial revolution and Hollywood villains.
The Beatles, Morris Dancing, penicillin, HP sauce, the World Wide Web (you’re welcome), One Direction, Carry On and Simon Cowell.
Tea drinking, chicken tikka masala, Shakespeare, Winston Churchill, battered Mars Bars, the BBC, the mini (car, roundabout and skirt), the Spice Girls, Darwin, football, Marmite, rugby, cricket, golf, tennis, ping pong, pubs, tea, sharp suits, Spitfires and the fact there are homosexuals, lesbians and transsexuals in the armed forces and you know what, no one gives two shits.
With our friends and allies stood against the Nazis, invented the railway, sarcasm, MRI scanners, the screw propeller and a proper breakfast, been on the right side of the Napoleonic, First, Second and Cold War and gave the world steam power, the Mexeflote, Wallace and Gromit, roast beef dinners, the Dyson, Doctor Who, television, telephones, the Rolls-Royce Merlin, text messaging, GMT, electric motors, lawn mowers, the Land Rover, spotted dick, sewage systems, the thermos flask, the jet engine, carbon fibre, the flushing toilet and polyester (just for the RAF), pencils, radar and the Bank of France (ha ha ha).
The correct method of holding an umbrella
The fighter aircraft, battleship, aircraft carrier, drill that doesn’t look ridiculous, proper salutes, the torpedo, sonar, underwater knife fighters (special forces), the armoured vehicle boiling vessel (for the tea), the Paralympic Games, independent air forces (yep, sorry about that one), the equal sign and gin & tonic.
Did I mention, tea
I am not actually a fan of the term ‘place in the world’ but it does serve as a reasonable place to start a conversation about what we stand for and who we are.
The UK is one of the worlds largest economies, has world-class research, science, engineering, culture, finance and technology industry’s. European Geostrategy even ranked the UK the worlds only global soft super-power, above the USA. We occupy one the UN’s few permanent security council seats and have a disproportionate influence on world governance and business, technology and security standards.
Our military has an incredible reputation and most nations know that whilst we may seem a little soft on the outside we are not to be messed with. Trident, a conventional military force with genuine global reach and a range of capabilities honed in numerous conflicts means that despite recent problems it would be a very brave nation that took us on directly.
The UK, therefore, has a deep well of hard and soft power from which to draw.
There is an ongoing obsession with putting nations into league tables and any casual online search will reveal a plethora of indices, but the bottom line is basic, the UK is one of the worlds leading nations by any measure you care to use.
We should have no illusions about our relationships with the USA, Germany or France and others. Although we are allies and firm friends should not expect anything but self-interest from them, to think otherwise is delusional.
We should not describe ourselves as a bridge to anything or anyone, we are more than that and have the ability to act as an important nation in our own right at the heart of global affairs whether we are part of the EU or not.
The world is changing at a rapid pace and if Great Britain wants to be safe, prosperous and influential our outlook must be outward looking, in all the forms that this might take. We might be an island nation, but we are as interconnected as any, reliant on a complex web of relationships, alliances and connections.
But no matter what, democracy and the ability to govern ourselves is the most important of all things.
So when it comes to voting on the 23rd, if you are voting, please vote not from fear, but from the knowledge this nation of ours is called Great Britain for a bloody good reason and nothing to do with Brittany!
A decision is made. I respect for it.
In Japan, there is a worry about Scotland and North Ireland. I read that local governments stated they are planning new referendum to leave or stay-within GB. I lack information, how is the atmosphere there…?
Cameron should have stayed neutral throughout the decision. He came out too heavily in favour of one side and it cost him, but that’s hindsight. I expected Brexit, didn’t expect his too heavy support and need for resignation. Oh well.
And I’ll leave you guys with the words the Sultan of Brunei told us 50 years ago on a somewhat similar occasion:
“You’re finally out. Good, it’s better this way.”
I haven’t contibuted to the discussions on this fantastic forum for a long time, but waking up this morning I feel compelled to get some things off my chest. If only for my own sanity.
I am a member of the younger generation who appear to have voted largely for remain and who’ll have to live with the consequences of today’s referendum for decades to come.
I expect fully that the current economic and political turmoil will abate and I have great faith in UK business to figure out how to prosper in the new trading environment that will come out of this. Immigration isn’t even a top 10 issue for me.
My problem is that I wake up this morning feeling that this country has somehow become smaller. We seem to be on a more nationalistic, isolationist trajectory. The politics of “me me me” and not us & consensus. We could become marginalised when addressing the big issues of our time, like climate change or our increasing unstable world, that require big solutions. Our standing on the world stage will diminish. An anachronistic oddity on the edge of Europe, bleating on about past glories, with less and less influence over supranational issues that effect us.
There is no going back now, and I accept that. I’m not looking for a fight so please feel free to ignore this post. I just feel an incredible sadness by today’s events.
Agree market stuff is short term nonsense. Congrats on making your own destiny.
As I type this, Cameron has just said he will go by October. Still waiting for the Bank of England. If they have any sense, they will raise base rate by 0.25%, to match the rate rise the Americans did last year. That would settle things. Once the bankers are on their yachts/Villas for six weeks from mid July & all of August, the markets will settle.
Bit of a necro but good luck on the Brexit. Ignore the panic selling in the market and the drop of the pound, those are literally panic and kneejerk reactions, give it 2 weeks and you’ll be back to normal again, so endure it out, it won’t last. Tough times don’t last. Tough people do.
For what it’s worth.
My thoughts on the geopolitics of Brexit:
https://jedibeeftrix.wordpress.com/2016/04/24/the-geopolitics-of-brexit-what-outcome-should-we-aim-for/
And what I want in the referendum:
https://jedibeeftrix.wordpress.com/2016/06/15/brexit-what-do-i-want/
May I ask whether geographically Europe is part of the Global communities? Or should I mask my World map with tape to exclude Europe? (Try it- see if it looks right) Whether we leave or stay, it won’t go away.
Wf, I thought that might the case.
@Necessary Evil: Farage was debating the PM because the PM refused to be a party to any debate with any Tory cabinet member.
should have got, rather
TG, you seem to basically agreeing that in the case of 1,2,3 and 5 we don´t have to agree to anything, but it may be politically awkward not to do so, in which case we will have to decide whether we still want to be in the EU or not, surely? In the case of 4, you only responded to Cameron´s claim that EU spending has gone down, not to his claim that we have ultimate control over it. In the case of 6, it seems like both sides may be trying to get their excuses in early. The idea that the EU has nothing to do with it is a bit silly, since it is the largest trading bloc in the world. If the EU´s economy takes a hit the recession you are predicting will be worse, just as it would be if the economy of the US or China were to take a hit. I am not going to try to pretend that I know what will happen with the economy, but from what I understand volatility is something that it is best to avoid, and the pound is already being affected by the referendum.
As an aside, I really think the Brexiters should have gone Boris to debate Cameron, he´s a much more likeable buffoon than Farage.
Dear Necessary Evil can I just point out a few things that we all “know” as per dealing with the MoD or any Governmental organisation will find a way so :
1. We won’t have to pay for a Euro bailout. No we won’t what we will be asked to pay for is an intergovernmental solidarity payment or some such reworded amount. Basically anything but a “Euro” bailout, but bailout it will be caused by the failure of the Euro.
2. Nope on its own we will never have to give back our rebate. However as part of Lisbon Mk2 negotiations when the Euro Countries have to come together in ever political union to make the Euro work, then there will be a set of proposals a lot of which we will not like, what will happen is we will “negotiate” and as part of the deal struck we will give up the rebate to stop some of the harmful to the UK parts of the treaty change, the effect we’ve lost the rebate, but the EU will shout “you agreed to it” the same as a prisoner signs a confession with a Gun pointed at his head.
3. EU Treaty Veto. Again we negotiate if you’re in a club you get the best compromise you can. Using the Veto is like Nuclear Weapons, if you use it you’ve lost the war.
4. Spending. No the increase in EU spending was cut from an increase of 6% or 7% I forget the figure, to around 3% or no increase allowing for inflation (which in most of Europe is 0% or less so in fact it was an increase in the budget) but the ability to pay formula was changed, including taking in to account a countries “black” economy such as Drugs and Prostitution. Thus the UK contribution jumped by about £10bn a year. And this increase was only for items the EU already had competency over, all the new items that the EU have taken on under the treaty of Lisbon is not related to this increase, so the overall budget has gone up considerably, whilst the EU for the 30th year running can not get its accounts signed off by any external auditors.
5. Yes, but there is nothing stopping EU Countries pulling equipment and manpower from Nato posts and placing them in an EU Army. The Veto we have is for the UK to participate, so it is in fact an opt out, the EU Army will exist its just the UK will not allegedly contribute. However just look at the number of senior personnel appointed to joint commands in Europe and by the back door this will happen.
6. Again the stayers using cleaver words. So in net terms it ranges between £8bn and £15bn depending on which parts of the EU you wish to stay in, such as maybe the European Space Agency which you can stay a member of but not be a member of the EU. Since the UK contributes one of the largest shares to ESA you count it as EU money, but it would be the old DTi budget pre the EU.
As to the “black whole” please that is the Torry party getting it’s excuse in early. The world economy if you look at all the signs is heading for a recession mid to late 2016, it is nothing to do with in the EU or Out, the US for example has borrowing amounts higher than pre 2007, its job creation collapsed last year, China is hiding a massive currency and capital outflow all these world events are going to catch up soon and it has nothing to do with the EU. Secondly the Treasury and everybody else uses the Treasury models for the UK all use assumptions and certain guesses as to the future. Just 2 of those 100’s of assumption are off by 1% or 2% then we have a net gain of £10bn, remember George Osbourne finding £27bn down the back of the couch in November so he could stop the Working Tax Credit Cuts ? Then in April having to admit the forecasts now mean he needed to find £10bn of extra cuts or a swing in the figures of £37bn ?
As is usual with this debate people throw around “facts” when in fact they are guesses on how 27 other countries and a world economy are going to perform over the next 30yrs. Go back 30yrs to 1986 and could you have predicted all the recessions, housing booms and events in that period. Of course not. So the Remain campaign need too convince people like me who are still sitting on the fence, but know enough about the EU and Economics to know that the rubbish they are coming out with is claptrap. I look out of my window at a Town I live in that in the last 16yrs since 2000 has changed immensely, I see one street where men lounge around starring at Woman and shouting comments that only 16yrs ago would have not been acceptable and I am told its “cultural” I watch young people struggling to get jobs, I watch big business such as Mike Ashley’s make billions out of Polish workers, I watch the Labour Party admit it can never win another election so hopes the EU will protect workers rights to be on benefits and that is a pretty compelling augment to leave. The remainers need to show me a way that being in the EU would stop this and to date they have not.
A way that UK and European politicians can actually come out and be honest and not use weasel words such as “in REAL terms it is not an increase in the budget” but in fact the cost to the UK has gone from £350bn to £400bn in my mind that’s an increase. The list of outright lying done by the politicians in the remain camp and by EU Officials and Politicians are legion and in essence that lack of trust is why I might just vote leave, they have 15 days to set out a “Vision” that we will get the truth the whole truth and nothing less going forward and I am not holding my breath.
I do get Jeremy’s point and it’s one that I agree with. The question of stay or leave would not have come up if people saw a need or cause to remain in the EU.
That being said, the EU was a long time forming, ever since Harold Macmillian and his observation on the East of Suez policy that federations are centrifugal or centripetal, that they either look inward or look outward and that they can’t be both at the same time. In this, I think this is where a serious difference in viewpoint between the EU and the UK comes about. The EU is inward looking on Europe and European integration while the UK is beginning to have an eye out on the international stage after a period of introspection, so technically, the 2 are going in different directions.
And didn’t France once veto UK membership in the EEC?
Anyway, we’ll see how it goes in the vote.
As for the monetary losses, some of us already pointed out that capital flight is a temporary fear based response and will return once people see it’s much ado about nothing. That and profit taking. People selling just before a perceived drop in price. Then they’ll try and wait to catch the beginning of the rebound for more profit. Welcome to the international stocks market. It’s never “once gone never coming back”, it’s more “hit them when they are down” for profit. Not wrong, but don’t take their actions as approval or validation of economic policy, investors are only there for profit, not to rubber stamp economic policy.
Well, I try to be a ´thinker´ rather than a ´feeler,´ so I will just say good luck with your approach!
NE
That is because the “facts” are neither compelling nor are they facts in the pure sense of the word.
People want a compelling reason to the question of why bother with all this. It’s something the west has largely lacked since the end of the Cold War. The EU in particular seems to lack a clear forward goal at the moment.
People advocating the status quo have to wear all of this. Is wish the Trumps and Farge types weren’t who they were. I think people vote that way simply because they see no difference in voting establishment candidates for the most part.
I have been on record with many that Trump is a protest candidate who is simply ignorant of basic facts of government and looks for simple solutions playing on anger. But many people would rather chance that than put in the ultimate insider deal that they are sick of.
It’s the same to a degree in the EU issue. People are mostly casting a vote against the nonsense they are sick of. They have a clear chance to tell the establishment to go suck a lemon and many will do so just for that reason.
These things exist because of a lack of leadership in western governments. Politics has been too tactical for too long. There is likely to be a heavy price paid by the establishment for having done so.
Well, it definitely doesn´t seem to pay in the US, JMH, and I think something similar may be happening now in the UK – for Trump, read Farage and Boris, not in terms of their policies (at least not in Boris´ case) but in terms of their complete lack of reliance on facts.
I have no dog in his fight but I would say that it is often a mistake that too many politicians and policy wonks make to focus entirely on a dry recitation of “facts”. A nation is more than an attempt to maximize economic gains and minimize economic risk. Like any cooperative venture people want a purpose behind it all. If the stay campaign is floundering it is because it doesn’t really speak to that primal need, at least not effectively.
I will say from across the ocean the one thing that made me mad as hell was our president saying the UK would be back of the line on a new trade deal. That is a heaping bunch of crap. The UK should go right to the top to the degree we put other business on hold. It’s not our place to say what you should do. But whatever you decide supporting the UK should be a first priority. Anyone who says otherwise doesn’t get my vote.
Watching the debate now. Farage asked about pharma, replies that he doesn´t like pharma because it it isn´t allowing ´alternative medicine´ to flourish. Pharma rep points out that alternative medicine isn´t proven against placebo. Once again, Farage seems to be in fantasy land.
What worries me most about the Leave campaign is that it seems to be rather fact-free, like Trump´s presidential campaign. I knew all these claims were untrue without having to be told, but that´s because I have time to read the papers – what about all those people who don´t have time, and who may just think that Cameron is lying himself?
Cameron´s comments today:
And because they don’t have any credible experts on their side, what are [Vote Leave] reduced to? Telling complete untruths to the British people.
Now in the space of the past few days, here are six of them:
1 – They said we are liable to bail out eurozone countries. Not true. My renegotiation means we are categorically not liable for eurozone bailouts. It is there in black and white in the legally binding and irreversible negotiation deal.
2 – They said that our rebate, the money that we get back from the EU, is at risk. Again, not true. The British prime minister has a veto on changes to our rebate. Only a British prime minister could decide to give it up.
3 – They said we’ve given up our ability to veto EU treaties. Again, not true. There’s absolutely nothing in the renegotiation that gives up our veto as a full member of the European Union.
4 – They said we had no ability to stop overall EU spending from going up. Again, not true. The budget for the current period, 2014 to 2020, is set in stone and can only be changed with the consent of all countries, including the British prime minister. Again, it’s wrong to claim anything different, and by the way, the spending for this period is lower than in the last period because I negotiated a cut in the EU budget.
5 – They said we were powerless to stop Britain being forced in to an EU army. Again, not true. We have a rock solid veto on EU foreign and defence policy initiatives. Even if it was proposed, we would veto it. Just like William Hague did when he vetoed the idea of a European HQ on defence policy.
6 – They said we’d save £8bn if we left the EU. Again, not true – almost every credible economic organisation who’s looked at this has said that the economic shock of leaving Europe would cause a black hole in the public finances, and this would wipe out any saving that might be made. This black hole is estimated at between £20bn and £40bn. That is the scale of the damage that leaving would do to our ability to fund the NHS, our schools or our defences. Indeed, in an unprecedented intervention yesterday, the IFS – one of the most respected independent think tanks in our country – directly took on this falsehood from the leave campaign. They said, and I quote: “Leaving Europe would mean spending less on public services, or taxing more, or borrowing more”.
So there you have it. Credible experts warning about risks to our economic security on the one side, and a series of assertions that turn out to be completely untrue on the other. The leave campaign resorting to total untruths to con people into taking a leap in the dark.
It is irresponsible. It is wrong. It is time that the leave campaign was called out on the nonsense that they are peddling.
@APATS
Thanks for the link , the report of £77bn leaving in the run up to April ,with bulk of it ,£59bn , leaving in March is scary numbers. With the source of the article being the Bank of England who are presently in the “no comment” mode and hopefully planning for both outcomes such a capital flow is strong indicator of many analysts views on the outcome , if Britain votes in no big issue just buy back in , if out then ride the wave and buy in at the right millisecond or stay in the position your in.
Some investors are obviously very nervous , quite rightly , but the bulk of UK investors whose stake numbers in the £trillions are at present confident enough to stick with us.
Personally I think the EU needs a kick in the B*ll*cks to change its governing structure to be more in line with normal western governments. The whole Commissioner thing is fundamentally flawed IMHO.
A BREXIT might just be the best thing for both.
@Stephen Duckworth
http://news.sky.com/story/1708390/billions-of-pounds-leave-uk-ahead-of-eu-vote
At the moment cannot post to site other than from my mobile on 4G as my home ip just leads to awaiting moderation. So far more difficult to post links but not making it up.
Who predicted the sub-prime mortgage crash that felled Lehman Brothers etc etc , please watch the film The BIG Short .
On the UK suffering a short term economic contraction , more than possible but the implications of reducing the EU imposed burdens on companies operating in the iUK could , a very BIG could , swing investment into the iUK.
(P.S. APATS the figures you mentioned of £60bn ‘leaving’ the country , your source on that?)
@Hannay
Huge assumption there. Far more likely these international independent organisations are forecasting on what their experiences tell them is likely to happen. Even utilising indicators such as the £60 Billion that has left the UK in the last 2 months compared to the £2 Billion in the previous 6?
Or the business people telling us jobs would go?
@apats
The problem with listening to the economic experts is that they are forecasting based on Project Fear’s worst case Brexit outcome where the UK just sort of slams down the portcullis.
The experts may not be wrong per se but their forecasts are irrelevant to scenarios that might actually happen e.g. UK leaves “EU” but the EEA construct is massively reformed. Free trade without political union – like every other free trade agreement…
@Wise Ape
6 Economists are reckoned to have forecast 2008. Of course huge! Difference between forecasting the result of an event and forecasting one just happening.
Nouriel Roubini probably foremost amongst them and his forecast for a BREXIT is not only financially bad but the break up of the UK and Europe.
Has anyone got the phone numbers of those economic experts who predicted the 2008 crash? Perhaps we should ask their opinion.
@Observer
Economists for BREXIT?
You know what is interesting about them is that a couple are members of organisations yet are not publishing on behalf of their organisations!
Actually APATS, the link wf provided shows that not all the experts agree and ironically the publication (which I suspect has a bias, “Economists for Brexit”, sounds neutral doesn’t it? :) ) does follow closely to my estimates. I usually hate to support something so obviously biased and one sided, but their points do tally with what I guess will happen.
@observer
As have I but what is common in trials is that expert oppose each other. Same as in the Scottish Independence Referendum.
Here they all agree and your “Gibbs” gut may tell you something different but I think you do not quite get the geopolitical complexity of the EU and trade.
APATS, on the other hand, I’ve also seen “expert witnesses” been proven really, really wrong before, the most notable one was a professor of mine who took a look at a student’s presentation and the experimental results and went “Well, there goes 7 years of my work…”.
Even “expert witnesses” are subject to the laws of physics and can’t tell the future. They too give their “best guess” estimates and let the chips fall where it may. They used to call this type of “science” Futureology or something like that but that sort of died out as a specific field though the methodologies survived and are still being used today. And are still famous for their hit or miss predictions. In this case, I think their ideology of the “common market” predisposes the large organizations to lean towards a negative view of any attempt to split from the market.
And as I mentioned, my gut call is the opposite.
@Wf
We are not in the Euro so that is irrelevant. Refugee flood? We will lose the ability to influence any EU policy on refugees so we no longer have any input into policy until they are sitting on a rubber boat in the channel and heh the EU does not have to take them back, we left :) extreme but no more unrealistic than some of the BREXIT BOYZ assumptions.
As for economics well I refer you to every expert and organisation to voice an opinion.
There will be a queue of companies in the EU waiting to take up what we currently provide.
The thing about Brexit is that the risks are actually probably better quantified than those for Remain. We don’t know how bad the next Euro crisis / refugee flood / insane regulation will be or when they will arrive exactly. But they are going to, that’s for sure.
The risks to Brexit on the other hand can largely be summed up as loss of tariff free access to the EU single market. Given that only Russia and Belarus *don’t* have tariff free access right now, I’m feeling fairly relaxed.
BTW @APATS: some light reading for you :-)
http://static1.squarespace.com/static/570a10a460b5e93378a26ac5/t/5722f8f6a3360ce7508c2acd/1461909779956/Economists+for+Brexit+-+The+Economy+after+Brexit.pdf
@Observer
They are called opinions but that is also why courts have things called expert witnesses whose opinions in certain fields carry weight.
Also why some people are paid a lot of money to air those opinions.
In this case all these experts and organisations tell us the same thing that our departure from the EU will cost us financially.
Therss is based on being multi national economic experts with decades in international economics and trade and a huge understanding of the geopolitical and economic make up of the EU.
I harp on a bit but even during the Scottish Independence referendum economists disagreed, this time no credible organisation or person has said anything other than going is going to make you worse off. That says an awful lot.
That’s why these things are called opinions APATS, not facts. :)
None of us can really predict the future, it really is more a matter of gut calls than anything else.
Mine was taken from the observation that companies like familiarity and consistency, so even with the exit, any pre-existing contracts are not going to be nulled and voided, especially since possible cancellation penalties might be present, so the economic “hit” the UK might take could be lesser than the “worst case” scenarios painted. The biggest problem would be market worry and uncertainty but that is a temporary problem, once people see “life as usual” going on, the pound should regain or even exceed any lost ground since it isn’t a structural problem and should go away once the fear and uncertainty is gone.
@Observer
Do not confuse sanctions with tarifs.
The counter to your point is that being part of the world’s largest economic trading block means you do not need to sneak anything in under the radar as trade is a 2 way deal and the EU has huge markets that people want into. So we negotiate from a position of strength.
Also the 28 country EU block is not going to let us walk away and carry on as if nothing has happened. Huge number of companies within the EU that will want to replace goods and services currently provided by UK companies.
Then we have the weird fact that not one single credible economic organisation tells us it would be good for us.
WTO, OECD,. Chairman of the Federal Reserve, chairman Bank of England etc are all saying the same.
I am afraid you have totally failed to convince me they are wrong.
“Fortune favors the bold.”
“Sarcasm favors the italics”. :P
One good catchphrase deserves another lol.
Personally, I think the UK might be better off not shackled to the EU. For one, it’s easier to get access to markets if you did not look so large and threatening that people slap protectionist tariffs on you and for another, a single country decision making process is a lot more flexible than a multi-national one where they have to satisfy everybody.
My opinion call on this is that the UK has more to gain out of the EU than staying within it. No one is going to slap sanctions on the UK the instant it leaves, too disruptive for business, so there is really no serious loss leaving with some gains to be had, so staying is a “win” situation for the UK, leaving is a “win+ some extra gains” situation for the UK.
APATS,
Agreed. Unfortunately BREXIT has completely forgotten to plan exactly HOW or WHAT they will do. There is simply no strategy for BREXIT making it an unbelievably risky option however much it might appeal.
APATS,
Agreed. Unfortunately BREXIT has completely forgotten to plan exactly HOW or WHAT they will do. There is simply no strategy for BREXIT making it an unbelievably risky option however much it might appeal.
JH
Fortune does favour the bold but boldness should not detract from having an actual plan that is properly thought through and benefits from realistic Intel.
From an estimate point of view the BREXIT campaign have completely failed to do their Intel prep of the battle space ( in fact choosing to ignore and mock the experts)and this has led them to make huge assumptions on COAS that we would be forced into.
Bold but bold in a Charge of the Light Brigade or Market Garden rather than Overlord or Corporate style I am afraid
Fortune favors the bold.
NE, I’m not really sure if the economy will really suffer while you make new deals. One thing you have to remember is that people like familiarity to anchor their work and anything that has been going on for a while has a lot of momentum behind it. My guess is that nothing much will happen. You still supply those you supply and you still buy from those you buy, for familiarity’s sake if nothing else. No one cancels deals just because of politics, they cancel for reasons of cost and production shortfalls.
Hell, I’ve seen companies take higher quotations from suppliers than other suppliers with lower prices just because they have been doing business with that guy for a decade and no one wanted to redo a whole cost/benefit analysis just to change suppliers!
No, exit or no exit, my guess is that life goes on for the little hamsters making the hamster wheel turn.
Oh, and thanks for teaching me a new word, ACP. I´m not sure I will use it though – I feel self-conscious enough asking for an infusion.
It’s up to the Brits, of course.
The pro Brexit case appears to rest on a transfer of authority from EU commission and council (hardly any from EU parliament) to London.
The contra Brexit case appears to rest on a permanent loss of likely 0.5-2% GDP per annum by Brexit, after considering UK payments to the EU. Furthermore, the UK would lose the ability to influence EU decisions and regulations by the Brexit – decisions and regulations that will affect the UK anyway.
What’s wrong is the notion that economists could calculate what’s the right choice (I’ve seen such claims). They can only make educated guesses about the economic loss (those 0.5-2% GDP), but they don’t know the preferences of the people in the UK and thus cannot weigh the pro vs. the contra arguments. Proper economic theory surrenders in such cases and excuses itself by pointing at a vote (plebiscite or election) as the best known way to get those preferences expressed.
The most important thing about this is to properly inform ‘everybody’ about known facts and noteworthy estimates, so preferences can guide the decision on a healthy and robust basis.
Murphy, the whole point of trade deals (like the ones you are talking about) is that they are bilateral. It would be a rather stupid move to open our economy to everyone without first ensuring that they do the same.
Once again, I am not going to claim that we will definitely end up with worse trading deals in the future if we leave, I am saying that the economy will suffer while we are making those deals, which should have been made before a referendum, not after, thereby giving the populace a clear choice, rather than a choice between the status quo and uncertainty. The world economy will suffer because of this uncertainty, which is already affecting the pound:
: https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/06/pound-slides-referendum-brexit-polls-janet-yellen-speech-live
Wasn’t the Worcestershire sauce recipe bought from India? I sort of recall a children’s show regarding that where Lea and Perrins first run was terrible and they chucked it somewhere until it fermented.
Traffic lights. Something else from Britain.
“The other drinks are called tea simply because they are also steeped in hot water. In other countries (and in the UK sometimes) they are called infusions.”
Probably being a bit pedantic here, but they should all really be called “tisanes”
Oh – and you forgot Branston Pickle, Worcestershire sauce, English mustard and bottled Perrier Water (sorry France!)
The link is an article from a couple of years ago so numbers may vary slightly. It includes two maps showing the major countries we export to and import from
http://www.theweek.co.uk/uk-news/your-business/61274/biggest-trends-in-british-trade
Now I suspect if we are in or out of the EU neither the uk or any other country are going to wipe billions off there respective economies by suddenly deciding we aren’t gonna buy or sell from the UK.
When the EU goes economically “tits up” which economies are going to be pressured into dumping funds (down the toilet – never to be seen again ) into the ECB? That would be us and the other two.
If the Germans are leading by example by what they forced the Greeks to endure and sort out a systemic failure of the EU economy it is going to disatrous and why did the Germans have such a massive say in further destroying its economy anyway , it was ECB money IIRC , yes Germany lent it to the ECB but surely the ECB should be strong enough in its own right to determine where and how they spend it or are they?
“tits up” – another British first :-)
If you listen to the SNP, everyone in Scotland loves the EU. I was visiting my Aunts in Scotland in early April & I was surprised how critical my cousins were of the EU. I thought it was just Surrey that was pro Brexit, but the Northern working class have had their jobs undercut by unlimited immigration. It will be interesting to see the leave/remain votes North of the border.