Vote Leave or Vote Remain but Remember why Great Britain is Great

Vote leave or vote remain, but please, vote knowing that Britain is Great…

Anyone who thinks otherwise is obviously uneducated, or French.

Without Great Britain the world would be a poorer place in every regard.

Lets just remind ourselves why…

We gave the world democracy, common law, the Bailey Bridge, tanks, gravity, the worlds most common second language, Led Zeppelin, fair play, queuing, the backhoe loader, metal bridges, the Magna Carta, modern economics, the industrial revolution and Hollywood villains.

The Beatles, Morris Dancing, penicillin, HP sauce, the World Wide Web (you’re welcome), One Direction, Carry On and Simon Cowell.

Tea drinking, chicken tikka masala, Shakespeare, Winston Churchill, battered Mars Bars, the BBC, the mini (car, roundabout and skirt), the Spice Girls, Darwin, football, Marmite, rugby, cricket, golf, tennis, ping pong, pubs, tea, sharp suits, Spitfires and the fact there are homosexuals, lesbians and transsexuals in the armed forces and you know what, no one gives two shits.

With our friends and allies stood against the Nazis, invented the railway, sarcasm, MRI scanners, the screw propellor and a proper breakfast, been on the right side of the Napoleonic, First, Second and Cold War and gave the world steam power, the Mexeflote, Wallace and Gromit, roast beef dinners, the Dyson, Doctor Who, television, telephones, the Rolls Royce Merlin, text messaging, GMT, electric motors, lawn mowers, the Land Rover, spotted dick, sewage systems, the thermos flask, the jet engine, carbon fibre, the flushing toilet and polyester (just for the RAF), pencils, radar and the Bank of France (ha ha ha).

The correct method of holding an umbrella

Umbrella

The fighter aircraft, battleship, aircraft carrier, drill that doesn’t look ridiculous, proper salutes, the torpedo, sonar, underwater knife fighters (special forces), the armoured vehicle boiling vessel (for the tea), the Paralympic Games, independent air forces (yep, sorry about that one), the equal sign and gin & tonic.

Did I mention, tea

Tea

I am not actually a fan of the term ‘place in the world’ but it does serve as a reasonable place to start a conversation about what we stand for and who we are.

The UK is one of the worlds largest economies, has world class research, science, engineering, culture, finance and technology industry’s. European Geostrategy even ranked the UK the worlds only global soft super-power, above the USA. We occupy one the UN’s few permanent security council seats and have a disproportionate influence on world governance and business, technology and security standards.

Our military has an incredible reputation and most nations know that whilst we may seem a little soft on the outside we are not to be messed with. Trident, a conventional military force with genuine global reach and a range of capabilities honed in numerous conflicts means that despite recent problems it would be a very brave nation that took us on directly.

The UK, therefore, has a deep well of hard and soft power from which to draw.

There is an ongoing obsession with putting nations into league tables and any casual online search will reveal a plethora of indices but the bottom line is very simple, the UK is one of the worlds leading nations by any measure you care to use.

We should have no illusions about our relationships with the USA, Germany or France and others. Although we are allies and firm friends should not expect anything but self interest from them, to think otherwise is delusional.

We should not describe ourselves as a bridge to anything or anyone, we are more than that and have the ability to act as an important nation in our own right at the heart of global affairs whether we are part of the EU or not.

The world is changing at a rapid pace and if Great Britain wants to be safe, prosperous and influential our outlook must be outward looking, in all the forms that this might take. We might be an island nation but we are as interconnected as any, reliant on a complex web of relationships, alliances and connections.

But no matter what, democracy and the ability to govern ourselves is the most important of all things.

So when it comes to voting on the 23rd, if you are voting, please vote not from fear, but from the knowledge this nation of ours is called Great Britain for a bloody good reason and nothing to do with Brittany!

Great Britain

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Peter Feeney
Peter Feeney
June 2, 2016 6:45 am

“They” are being remarkably bellicose about their little club. they might do well to remember that the poliglot people of these island AND our cousins from around the Britich Commonwealth have bailed them out three times so far. Without out Contemptable, proud, stubbornly nationalistic Island the Corporals would have seen to it that the European project was very different. We are neither dependant on, nor limited by European Federations. We are a key player in a Global family and prefer to keep it that way. I want Out because I am a proud (and unfashionable) Nation (alist)! They want us In so that they can finally rid themselves of us – the Incorrigibly , stubborn British.

Barborossa Dave
Barborossa Dave
June 2, 2016 7:10 am

You’ve forgotten factories, industrial processes, Bessemer steel processing, the moving production line (yes- bollox to Ford, the worlds first was a traction engine company in the south-east), Powered flight (and indeed the principles of flight), Computers, fundamental christianity (the puritans)….

….The police (a proper civilian force, as opposed to giving soldiers nailed clubs), forensic science, a legal system, civil rights,
professional Fire Brigades.

….did you mention tea?

Mike nield
Mike nield
June 2, 2016 7:10 am

Nicely put. I suspect that if Brexit win Scotland will be leaving one of the most successful unions in history thus making Great Britain substantially less “great”. Is that a price worth paying (a question to Brexit supporters)?

Brian Black
Brian Black
June 2, 2016 7:42 am

I think you left roller skates and real custard off the list of British gifts to humanity.

Peter
Peter
June 2, 2016 8:51 am

Independance Day 323rd June.

Repulse
June 2, 2016 9:16 am

Hear hear TD.

I would go either further and say that the UK (and Commonwealth) paid a heavy price to keep the candle of democracy burning in Europe. Whilst the Americans were key ultimately in victory, the price we paid them early in the war in terms of money, land and technological secrets ultimately diminished this country to the betterment of the US. It seems Europe and the US now want us to pay an even greater price of freedom and ambition to keep Europe “peaceful”.

The problem with the whole EU debate is that it is done in the absence of any clear statement of UK ambition, the government and virtually all governments post war have seen their role as managing decline rather than setting a new vision. I’m not talking empire / conquest, but purpose greater than trying to keep the NHS funded and the worship of false celebrity idols. Europe has a vision, but the government will not tell it straight as they know the British public do not want it. Nor should we pretend that we can change the rules of the club against the majority wishes. The problem is by not having vision, the void will be filled by right wing nationalists – something very unbritish.

Without vision and ambition the UK will continue to be a rudderless boat and continue to live of the achievements off the past, which are slowly being eroded due to leftist / PC tendencies in our media / teaching professionals.

Here is one vision, that would make best use of our scientific, industrial and exploratory skills – Britain should take the lead in Space Exploration, aiming for a permanent base on Mars by 2035.

So in short TD, Britain is Great, but can and must do so so much more.

chris brown
June 2, 2016 9:40 am

Repulse

It may be a point of opinion rather than outright fact, but i think it was Russia who won World War Two rather than the USA. The USA (with British and Commonwealth help) stopped Russia in Germany and prevented western Europe becoming communist.

Mark1603
Mark1603
June 2, 2016 10:24 am

Great list of achievements, and others have added more. I would like to add: Penicillin, Accurate Time Keeping, Longitude, Breech loaded weapons and of course the Longbow (thanks Wales !). Sadly Churchill’s statement “it is better to jaw jaw than war war”, has been taken to extremes by some of our European neighbors, and we need more than just a talking shop.
Interesting times ahead, and for some on both sides of the debate, they have forgotten that when we, “The British”, are threatened with “Fear”, we all club together and respond as a collective and most times come out on top.
Keep up the good work

Mental Crumble
June 2, 2016 10:52 am

agreed and will repost

Anthony Gilroy
Anthony Gilroy
June 2, 2016 11:00 am

Would just like to echo the statement Repluse had made.

In fear of losing individuals on the way to the vision we now have a vision of “everyone being the same”. What a shame. What a waste. Why would we all want to be the same anyway?

Lets aim for something. Lets let people be diverse. Let them try and fail so they can try a second and third time. When they do succeed it will be so much sweeter.

The nation needs a target in the sights. Otherwise we end up with Politicians concerned with their own power rather than genuine progression.

WiseApe
June 2, 2016 5:18 pm

It’s a secret ballot and far be it for me to try and influence anyone, but you do know that not one of the other 27 members of the EU is a Test playing nation, don’t you?

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
June 2, 2016 5:21 pm

I was hoping for an extended article on inshore security. Perhaps written by a serving RN officer?

JohnHartley
JohnHartley
June 2, 2016 5:48 pm

Whisky, don’t forget the whisky.

JohnHartley
JohnHartley
June 2, 2016 5:50 pm

We did give Europe “The Brotherhood of Man” singing “Making your mind up”. Its no wonder they hate us.

Challenger
Challenger
June 2, 2016 7:26 pm

Brown

‘It may be a point of opinion rather than outright fact, but i think it was Russia who won World War Two rather than the USA. The USA (with British and Commonwealth help) stopped Russia in Germany and prevented western Europe becoming communist’

Agree to some extent and always remember the ‘American money, British brains and Russian blood’ mantra which i think carries at least some weight.

It’s an interesting subject and i think it’s safe to say that by June 1944 the Russian juggernaut was going to thunder into central Europe with or without an Anglo-American campaign in the west. However it’s also interesting to read just how many men and how much war material was needed to try and resist the round the clock aerial bombardment of Germany from 1942 onwards. The Mediterranean campaign, often seen as pointless and mismanaged once North Africa and Sicily were secure, did nevertheless knock Italy out of the war and not only forced the Wehrmacht to commit 25ish divisions to a new theater of war but equally importantly meant they had to take over from the multitude of Italian formations garrisoning Yugoslavia and Greece.

Also whilst the triumphs of Russian war production are (rightly) lorded as part of their success story on the Eastern Front it’s worth remembering that millions of tons of American and British lend-lease equipment and goods were sent to Russia, providing a lot of the less exciting but vital stuff, including most of their radios and trucks and a lot of their medical supplies, boots, other communications equipment, aircraft, ammunition etc.

It’s a fun what if to consider how rapid or successful the Russian victory would have been without all of these indirect but substantial actions by the Western allies up until 1944.

Observer
Observer
June 3, 2016 1:33 am

Best wishes in your decisions, though to be really honest, I don’t see how staying or leaving will affect the common man much.

Anyone kind enough to enlighten me?

JohnHartley
JohnHartley
June 3, 2016 6:38 am

Its worse than I thought. Brotherhood of Man was “Save your kisses for me”. Enough to put a continent in a state of terror. “Making your mind up” was Bucks fizz. No wonder they keep voting us down now. Joe & Jake deserved to be in the top quarter, but they ended up second from bottom.
Observer re common man. A month ago, a newspaper asked a Polish construction worker in Britain what he thought. He said the British workers had their hourly rate halved, because of the cheaper migrants undercutting them. Now the Pole was moaning that cheaper Romanians were undercutting him.

Deja Vu
Deja Vu
June 3, 2016 9:43 am

WiseApe – True, but in the United Kingdom only England is a Test playing nation and that is definitely not a reason for dismantling the Union.

Dont know why but Betjeman’s poem In Westminster Abbey chimes a distant bell with me.
http://allpoetry.com/poem/8493441-In-Westminster-Abbey-by-Sir-John-Betjeman

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 3, 2016 10:49 am

I believe Mike Nield nailed it.

I think something that has been overlooked is that it wasn´t just Brits who made Britain great, it was all the peoples of the British Empire (for a military example, you need look no further than the Gurkhas). Since we no longer have an Empire, we need to be part of some other large political entity if we want to maintain our greatness. Some Brexiters have suggested making more of our connection to former British colonies, but is this really a better bet than staying in the EU? The colonies may have helped us to become great in the past, but it wasn´t entirely voluntary, whereas the EU has been (at least on a state level).

Perhaps some would argue that we do not need to be part of a large political entity, we only need to be part of a large economic entity, like the EFTA. That might be true, but unfortunately this vote isn´t a choice between staying in the EU and joining the EFTA, it is a choice between staying in the EU and something else. That something else might be much better, or it might be much worse, but I believe the economy will take a hit in the meantime since the markets hate uncertainty, and that seems like a risk that is not worth taking with the world economy in such a fragile state.

Ron
Ron
June 3, 2016 2:50 pm

I couldn’t disagree with you more Necessary Evil. Britain was great because it was the first country to truly become industrialized and therefore massively increased its wealth and productivity which is what enabled it to forge an empire. Greece,Spain,France etc they also are part of the E.U and look at the significant problems they currently have not to mention us. The huge economic risk from leaving and all these doom predictions are based on the assumption that we would stop trading with the rest of the world, which is the opposite of what most Brexiters want. The E.U is now holding itself back because it has become protectionist in mindset and doesn’t want free trade with the rest of the world. There seems to be the opinion trade deals are about getting as much access to their market and giving them as little to yours as possible, therefore the bigger you are the better chance you have. This is wrong. Reducing competition on domestic industries in the long run leads to lower growth in productivity and means as a society we are worse off. That’s before we even get to the argument about democracy and lack of accountability.

Wansteady
Wansteady
June 3, 2016 4:37 pm

Only the future really matters and glorifying what our ancestors achieved rather than what we have done is rather self indulgent and lazy.

(ps. it’s Great Britain and Northern Ireland)

WiseApe
June 3, 2016 6:14 pm

In our munificence we English let the other home nations play for us. With mixed success. Simon Jones helped regain the Ashes. Gavin Hamilton bagged a pair and took 0-63.

BTW seem to recall – from reading not personal experience – that ancient Rome had a fire brigade. Post Nero.

Nick
Nick
June 3, 2016 6:47 pm
MSR
MSR
June 3, 2016 7:13 pm

My biggest problem with the leave campaigners is that, while the remain campaign tend to present facts and figures (you can argue the accuracy of those facts and figures elsewhere, by the principle remains that they are presenting facts and figures) the leave campaign respond to those facts and figures with simple, often childish, emotional statements and no facts and figures of their own that aren’t immediately and verifiably untrue, such as Penny Mordant’s stupid statement about whether the UK gets to veto possible Turkish membership or not. Plus, there is every single thing that comes out of Johnson’s mouth… the leave campaign are doing negative, emotional propaganda and it could well work, because they’re appealing to the lizard brain in all of us, not the rational brain. Plus, the leave campaign has idiots like Johnson and Gove running it, as well as that horrible little gobby tosser Farage (I don’t like him, as you might have noticed), and this line-up doesn’t exactly fill me with confidence that the leave campaign is anything other than a self-serving exercise in pursuit of narrow-minded agendas. That is not a good reason for ditching the EU. There may be good reasons for ditching the EU, but the leave campaign either don’t know them, or don’t care, because they are utterly failing to communicate them.

Ron
Ron
June 3, 2016 8:36 pm

MSR What facts do you want? It’s rather difficult to find facts and figures regarding the future!

If facts and figures are not accurate then that completely diminishes their relevance to the discussion. I would argue that turns them into childish and emotional statements. How is the remain camp any better the only message they seem to be promoting at the moment is that if we leave there will be economic ruin and we will be ostracised by the wider world as some sort of N.Korean state.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 4, 2016 10:48 am

Ron, you didn´t actually disagree with any of my points. I admit that Britain was the superpower of most of the 19th century because of the industrial revolution, but if we hadn´t conquered the colonies we wouldn´t have had the markets to buy raw materials from, and to sell manufactured goods too. Since this is a military blog, it would be wrong to overlook the contribution of Empire and Commonwealth troops in both World Wars too.

The only point I made about the economy was that if we vote to leave their will be more volatility in the markets (just look what happened when Boris Johnson declared that he was pro-Brexit!), and that in these uncertain times it doesn´t seem like a risk worth taking, especially since our economy is doing rather well (compared with other developed nations) at the moment.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 4, 2016 10:54 am

NB, I mean that there will be more volatility in the short-term, simply because the markets hate uncertainty and we haven´t arranged any alternative trade deals to replace the EU ones.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 4, 2016 11:04 am

By the way TD, did you really claim that GB gave the world tea? We may have taught the world to mix different strains of tea all together and then add milk to mask the taste, but I really don´t see that as a great innovation.

Julian
Julian
June 4, 2016 12:10 pm

@NE – re tea I remember (a little vaguely) a fascinating documentary a few years back about the 10 (I think) lesser-known things that enabled the British Empire. Tea drinking was mentioned as one because of the antibacterial effects of tea (as demonstrated in the program by the rate at which a frog putrefied I seem to remember). It was claimed that these health benefits enabled greater population densities in the mill towns of the north before rampant disease started to decimate said populations which was important to us in creating mass-production capabilities.

@MSR – re the Brexiters “simple, often childish, emotional statements and no facts and figures of their own” I tend to agree although I do also acknowledge Ron’s point that when considering a future with many uncertainties absolute facts are in short supply.

I do still wish the discussions were a bit more intelligent though. For instance the treasury forecast a week or so ago about what Brexit might do to the economy with the only real retort from the Brexit camp being “more project fear”. If only the treasury could make that forecast model available to anyone who wanted it (maybe they do) so that Brexit economists could plug in their own assumptions to arrive a different and presumably more favourable economic outcome for Brexit. At least then we could discuss the potential validity of each side’s input assumptions rather than simply being presented with “computer says no” (which rather ironically is a quote from the “Little Britain” TV series).

I saw some clips of the Sky News debate with Michael Gove replayed on BBC news last night. They showed one clip of an audience member saying to Michael Gove “With all due respect Mr Gove it appears to me that it’s almost like a First World War general – you’re waving the flag, you’re saying ‘over the top men’, but you have no idea what’s on the front line or what the casualty rate will be in the conflicts to come.”. Personally I thought that was a masterful and beautifully articulated observation.

– Julian

JohnHartley
JohnHartley
June 4, 2016 12:19 pm

Re tea. It was an early Chinese warlord who is credited with tea drinking. To stop his troops coming down with stomach bugs, he ordered that drinking water be boiled. Some camomile leaves blew into the vats of boiling water. They liked the taste & the rest is history. The UK can take credit for black tea, adding milk & planting in India & Africa (+Cornwall).
As for economic forecasts, I suspect both sides are rubbish, as there is probably a global economic slowdown coming, regardless of the UK referendum vote.

MSR
MSR
June 4, 2016 2:14 pm

@Julian
@Ron

Points taken, but I mentioned the principle which is that the remain camp are taking the facts/figures approach in contrast to the leave camp, which doesn’t bother to offer any, and instead try to grab headlines, doubtless working off the dubious idea (as postulated by some think tanks and statistical studies) that most people only get their news from headlines as they walk by the news stand in the petrol station on their way to work.

Both you mention the uncertainty of the future, and I think this is the key: the remain camp say stay in the EU to avoid uncertainty. The leave camp, however, say leave the EU and… what? When challenged they offer no reasoning as to how we will be better off, and suggest no plan for the future. Thus, the leave camp are arguing in favour of uncertainty, which is death to a stable economy.

In fact, the leave camp even argue that they don’t need to come up with a plan/vision/idea/vague notion/slightest hint at how things will work post Brexit and they justify this by saying they don’t need to because they’re a single issue campaign! Would you vote for a party at a general election that made such an argument? “Vote for us because we haven’t got a clue what we’ll do when we win, we just want to win!”

Observer
Observer
June 4, 2016 2:16 pm

And as a geneticist, I can say that the caffeine in both tea and coffee is a mild carcinogen. :)

Something that tea health advocates seem to have missed noticing.

On a more technical note, the caffeine molecule is just the right shape/size to intercalate between the major groove of a DNA molecule, causing it to “stretch” and cause frameshift mutations when transcribing/translating, if anyone is interested in the technical details.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 4, 2016 4:58 pm

John Hartley, it was apparently discovered by the Yellow Emperor himself. Oh, and camomile is a completely different plant.

Re: the subject of the thread, would Brexiters be willing to trade a short-term military spending cut as a consequence of an economic downturn caused by market uncertainty for the percieved increase in national sovereignty from a Brexit?

stephen duckworth
June 4, 2016 6:46 pm

@Wise Ape
“What have the Romans ever done for us eh….”
Oh yes British humour too.

Observer
Observer
June 4, 2016 7:16 pm

“What have the Romans ever done for us eh….”
Oh yes British humour too.

-Nah, I don’t think they can be blamed for that. :)

DavidNiven
DavidNiven
June 4, 2016 7:22 pm

@MSR

‘The leave camp, however, say leave the EU and… what? When challenged they offer no reasoning as to how we will be better off, and suggest no plan for the future.’

I’d say that sums up the stay campaign as well. I am not aware of any member of the remain campaign who has offered a vision of the UK’s role within the EU after this referendum has taken place and a vote to stay is the result. It would be nice to hear someone saying what they would do with a mandate from the UK public to stay in the EU and what real reforms they would try to achieve and how they would do this, rather than the usual ‘it’s better the devil you know’ crap we are constantly fed while in the same breath agreeing that the EU needs to reform.

Murphy
Murphy
June 4, 2016 8:12 pm

One of the reasons as to why Britain and British industry was so so successful in the 19th century was because of her free-trade policy, which allowed her to export at much cheaper prices and therefore selling a lot more.

The EU on the other hand is the complete opposite. With it’s protectionist ideals, is the perfect organisation for large corporations because of it’s numerous regulations and directives which extensively limit competition. When a politician says he is in favour of staying in, it is probably because he has a well payed job lined up for him in Brussels, and not because he actually believes it.

The economies of the EU are stagnant, starting a buissness in the EU is like stepping into a legal minefield and a great many politicians are bought by the EU, or at the very least influenced. The UK is the 5th largest economy in the world and trade deals aren’t required now with the WTO. That for me is enough to want to leave, but in my opinion sovreignty is what matters the most, and that is why I ask you to vote to leave.

“Those who give up liberty in exchange for security deserve neither, and will lose both.”

Observer
Observer
June 4, 2016 8:39 pm

Wasn’t there a time before the EU? My opinion is that the “leave” campaigners want to reset the clock back to that period of time, so they don’t specify a future scenario since it’s “same as the past” to them.

Have to remember, the EU is really relatively young, there are a lot of people that still remember a time before that. Maybe through rose tinted glasses, but there are a lot of people that were around pre-1993(?)

Observer
Observer
June 4, 2016 10:52 pm

“Those who give up liberty in exchange for security deserve neither, and will lose both.”

-Nice catchphrase Murphy, but coming from somewhere who gave up a lot of liberty for security, we haven’t lost security yet! :)

A more appropriate one (though in a different context) I find is “He is no fool who gives what he cannot keep to gain what he cannot lose.”

Security or Liberty, sooner or later you have to weight one side heavier than the other. Hell, tossing someone in jail is the ultimate definition of depriving someone of liberty, but all countries have jails and laws for “security” of the people. Can you imagine a country that does not clamp down on crime? It has happened many times in many areas and those countries tend not to turn out well. Liberty or death? Too much liberty IS death, look what happened to Syria and Libya post-Arab Spring.

Agree that the EU is protectionist, just object to “catchphrase thinking”. Too many shades of grey in the world to approve of black and white thinking.

JohnHartley
JohnHartley
June 5, 2016 6:03 am

NE. My sister drinks a lot of camomile tea. Look on the supermarket shelves. There are lots of fruit teas, nettle teas, redbush teas, etc.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 5, 2016 9:49 am

Yes, and none of them contain any leaves of the tea plant, Camellia Sinesis, which is I believe what TD was referring to. The other drinks are called tea simply because they are also steeped in hot water. In other countries (and in the UK sometimes) they are called infusions.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 5, 2016 9:51 am

Murphy, if trade deals aren´t required, why is every major economy trying to make trade deals (the trans-Pacific partnership being a good example)?

Brian Black
Brian Black
June 5, 2016 12:09 pm

MSR, you talk about the remain campaign using facts, but they are happily presenting uncertain economic forecasts as absolute facts.

They are then disingenuous to a further extent in the way they present those ‘facts’.

The bleaker economic forecasts, used to describe a future outside the EU, are often presented in such a way as to suggest a decline against today’s economic performance; however, the figures regularly being used are actually only relative to the rosy forecasts used to describe a future within the EU. The result is that their forecasts, which only suggest slower economic growth outside the EU, misleadingly appear to suggest economic contraction against current performance.

The difference between the uncertain forecasts, of economic performance inside and outside the EU, is then regularly but disingenuously divided by the number of UK households to give a subjective cash figure of some thousands of pounds. This cash figure is presented per household to deliberately give the impression that you and your family will or will not have this money in your hand, depending on how you vote. This is of course not how the economy works, and the size of the overall economy is not necessarily directly related to the wealth of the individuals within it.

Households will not necessarily find themselves with another £N,000 in their hand just because the economy is N% larger than an alternative forecast – not least because a part of the expected economic growth is directly related to predicted population growth. All other things being equal, if you let in three million immigrants over a given period of time, rather than one million over the same period, the economy will be somewhat bigger; that won’t automatically deliver a cash bonus to households though – those additional people will themselves require investment in transport, healthcare, education, housing, policing, etc.

Observer
Observer
June 5, 2016 12:13 pm

NE, I think it’s actually easier to get past tariffs if you are a small entity than if you are a large one. For example, if you were trying to sell something in China, as an independent UK, your volume is small, so it looks less threatening than if you combined it with the whole of the EU where the “total volume produced” might look so large and threatening that it scares them to block the whole thing.

Protectionism if you get right down to the basis for it, is a fear reaction, the fear that their own industries can’t compete and need an “edge” or be forced to close down. Anything that lessens that fear increases the likelihood of a successful “free trade” deal.

Large entities in trade do have their benefits as they represent a huge market which the opposite party might want to do business in and do function well as a threat (open your market or we’ll close ours!), but when you get down to the level where threats are exchanged, that’s already an acrimonious relationship, not somewhere you like to end up. Better to guilt trip and sneak in by incremental small volumes than to try betting the whole pot on one hand.

But I’m also well aware that my stand might be the result of long term historical brainwashing on the advantages of free trade, so *shrug*. We’ll see how it goes.

Brian Black
Brian Black
June 5, 2016 12:14 pm

Can we expect pro-EU Scottish nationalists to vote tactically to leave in the hope of justifying another Scottish independence referendum?

And would it be likely to make a difference?

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 5, 2016 12:51 pm

Test from my mobile on 4G lap top posts just show awaiting moderation.

Brian Black
Brian Black
June 5, 2016 12:54 pm

Challenger, by D-Day the Germans were indeed already on the slide against the Russians; but if you were to consider America’s complete absence from the war, it might be worse than a slowing of Russian progress on the eastern front.

Without active American involvement in the war, and perhaps (before the point they did join) even just without loaned US-built destroyers in the North Atlantic, the Battle of The Atlantic could have been won by the Germans earlydoors.

Success in the Atlantic, and a successful blockade of Britain would have eliminated the realistic threat of a western front. A couple of million men and thousands of tanks and aircraft could have been released for the war in the east.

Even with US support in the war, had Hitler recognized the potential of the U-boats earlier, the build up of allied forces in England could have been prevented with a relatively small outlay of resources. Much of the German forces in France, Norway, and Italy could have been eastward bound before it went irredeemably pear shaped against the Soviets, and the lack of allied carpet bombing from English airbases could also have had an exponential effect on German industrial output.

The whole war could have hinged on a few US-built destroyers.

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 5, 2016 1:05 pm

@BB

Very very unlikely to see Scots vote tactically to leave. The vote will likely to be 70/30 stay in Scotland. Plus the higher the stay vote the more ammo to be claimed to have been dragged out in case of a BREXIT.

The leave campaign has issues in Scotland

Farage and Johnson are despised north of the border, give merely strongly disliked.
Actually does make me think that even if I understood none of the arguments I could still not bring myself to adopt a position supported by odious creeps like Johnson, Garage, Give and Putin.

That last name should really hit home to those who do not believe that a BREXIT will affect UK or European security. Does a man who last year had x nuclear submarines poised off our coast have our best interests at heart?

Rob Collinson
Rob Collinson
June 5, 2016 4:41 pm

You forgot the NHS.

In my humblest opinion (and I and my family do not work for it) the NHS is the single greatest thing thus country gas ever done.

An do not forge how the NHS supports the armed services (not forgetting what the NHS gets from the armed services)

Murphy
Murphy
June 5, 2016 5:17 pm

@Necessary Evil

Trade deals nowadays are more specific. For example, if Liberia seeks more investment within its country, it might be a good idea for it to have a trade deal or a bilateral investment treaty with for example the USA. Now that deal would take around about 1-3 years to conclude, because Liberia is a small economy, and therefore its industries are very limited. Now say the EU (not a member state as they are forbidden from making their own trade agreements) seeks a trade agreement with China (which they do not have). As they are both large economies there will be numerous tariffs and quotas, which inevitably add a lot of time to the negotiations. The thing is, China, whose production costs are very low due to limited regulation, still exports on a huge scale to the EU, and makes a nice profit.

If the UK leaves the EU, it should in my opinion opt for a free-trade economy, thereby rendering exprort tariffs irrelevant. So if British ships are built with cheaper steel, the UK ship industry will still be able to export to the EU and make a nice profit. That can happen without a free-trade agreement. After Brexit there’s no doubt the German car industry which constitutes a large part of the UK-EU trade deficit will want a free-trade agreement, so as long as we negotiate on our terms, UK industries should make an even bigger profit.

If the EU refuses a trade deal, then that’s their loss. In an era of globalisation we can do better, on a global scale.

JohnHartley
JohnHartley
June 5, 2016 6:13 pm

If you listen to the SNP, everyone in Scotland loves the EU. I was visiting my Aunts in Scotland in early April & I was surprised how critical my cousins were of the EU. I thought it was just Surrey that was pro Brexit, but the Northern working class have had their jobs undercut by unlimited immigration. It will be interesting to see the leave/remain votes North of the border.

stephen duckworth
June 5, 2016 6:33 pm

When the EU goes economically “tits up” which economies are going to be pressured into dumping funds (down the toilet – never to be seen again ) into the ECB? That would be us and the other two.
If the Germans are leading by example by what they forced the Greeks to endure and sort out a systemic failure of the EU economy it is going to disatrous and why did the Germans have such a massive say in further destroying its economy anyway , it was ECB money IIRC , yes Germany lent it to the ECB but surely the ECB should be strong enough in its own right to determine where and how they spend it or are they?
“tits up” – another British first :-)

Mark
Mark
June 5, 2016 6:52 pm

The link is an article from a couple of years ago so numbers may vary slightly. It includes two maps showing the major countries we export to and import from

http://www.theweek.co.uk/uk-news/your-business/61274/biggest-trends-in-british-trade

Now I suspect if we are in or out of the EU neither the uk or any other country are going to wipe billions off there respective economies by suddenly deciding we aren’t gonna buy or sell from the UK.

A Caribbean Perspective
A Caribbean Perspective
June 5, 2016 11:49 pm

“The other drinks are called tea simply because they are also steeped in hot water. In other countries (and in the UK sometimes) they are called infusions.”

Probably being a bit pedantic here, but they should all really be called “tisanes”

Oh – and you forgot Branston Pickle, Worcestershire sauce, English mustard and bottled Perrier Water (sorry France!)

Observer
Observer
June 6, 2016 12:35 am

Wasn’t the Worcestershire sauce recipe bought from India? I sort of recall a children’s show regarding that where Lea and Perrins first run was terrible and they chucked it somewhere until it fermented.

Traffic lights. Something else from Britain.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 6, 2016 8:53 am

Murphy, the whole point of trade deals (like the ones you are talking about) is that they are bilateral. It would be a rather stupid move to open our economy to everyone without first ensuring that they do the same.

Once again, I am not going to claim that we will definitely end up with worse trading deals in the future if we leave, I am saying that the economy will suffer while we are making those deals, which should have been made before a referendum, not after, thereby giving the populace a clear choice, rather than a choice between the status quo and uncertainty. The world economy will suffer because of this uncertainty, which is already affecting the pound:

: https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2016/jun/06/pound-slides-referendum-brexit-polls-janet-yellen-speech-live

S O
S O
June 6, 2016 8:55 am

It’s up to the Brits, of course.

The pro Brexit case appears to rest on a transfer of authority from EU commission and council (hardly any from EU parliament) to London.

The contra Brexit case appears to rest on a permanent loss of likely 0.5-2% GDP per annum by Brexit, after considering UK payments to the EU. Furthermore, the UK would lose the ability to influence EU decisions and regulations by the Brexit – decisions and regulations that will affect the UK anyway.

What’s wrong is the notion that economists could calculate what’s the right choice (I’ve seen such claims). They can only make educated guesses about the economic loss (those 0.5-2% GDP), but they don’t know the preferences of the people in the UK and thus cannot weigh the pro vs. the contra arguments. Proper economic theory surrenders in such cases and excuses itself by pointing at a vote (plebiscite or election) as the best known way to get those preferences expressed.

The most important thing about this is to properly inform ‘everybody’ about known facts and noteworthy estimates, so preferences can guide the decision on a healthy and robust basis.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 6, 2016 8:55 am

Oh, and thanks for teaching me a new word, ACP. I´m not sure I will use it though – I feel self-conscious enough asking for an infusion.

Observer
Observer
June 6, 2016 2:32 pm

NE, I’m not really sure if the economy will really suffer while you make new deals. One thing you have to remember is that people like familiarity to anchor their work and anything that has been going on for a while has a lot of momentum behind it. My guess is that nothing much will happen. You still supply those you supply and you still buy from those you buy, for familiarity’s sake if nothing else. No one cancels deals just because of politics, they cancel for reasons of cost and production shortfalls.

Hell, I’ve seen companies take higher quotations from suppliers than other suppliers with lower prices just because they have been doing business with that guy for a decade and no one wanted to redo a whole cost/benefit analysis just to change suppliers!

No, exit or no exit, my guess is that life goes on for the little hamsters making the hamster wheel turn.

JohnHartley
JohnHartley
June 7, 2016 9:20 am

Fortune favors the bold.

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 7, 2016 10:22 am

JH

Fortune does favour the bold but boldness should not detract from having an actual plan that is properly thought through and benefits from realistic Intel.
From an estimate point of view the BREXIT campaign have completely failed to do their Intel prep of the battle space ( in fact choosing to ignore and mock the experts)and this has led them to make huge assumptions on COAS that we would be forced into.

Bold but bold in a Charge of the Light Brigade or Market Garden rather than Overlord or Corporate style I am afraid

Rocket Banana
June 7, 2016 10:25 am

APATS,

Agreed. Unfortunately BREXIT has completely forgotten to plan exactly HOW or WHAT they will do. There is simply no strategy for BREXIT making it an unbelievably risky option however much it might appeal.

Observer
Observer
June 7, 2016 2:42 pm

“Fortune favors the bold.”

“Sarcasm favors the italics”. :P

One good catchphrase deserves another lol.

Personally, I think the UK might be better off not shackled to the EU. For one, it’s easier to get access to markets if you did not look so large and threatening that people slap protectionist tariffs on you and for another, a single country decision making process is a lot more flexible than a multi-national one where they have to satisfy everybody.

My opinion call on this is that the UK has more to gain out of the EU than staying within it. No one is going to slap sanctions on the UK the instant it leaves, too disruptive for business, so there is really no serious loss leaving with some gains to be had, so staying is a “win” situation for the UK, leaving is a “win+ some extra gains” situation for the UK.

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 7, 2016 2:54 pm

@Observer

Do not confuse sanctions with tarifs.

The counter to your point is that being part of the world’s largest economic trading block means you do not need to sneak anything in under the radar as trade is a 2 way deal and the EU has huge markets that people want into. So we negotiate from a position of strength.
Also the 28 country EU block is not going to let us walk away and carry on as if nothing has happened. Huge number of companies within the EU that will want to replace goods and services currently provided by UK companies.

Then we have the weird fact that not one single credible economic organisation tells us it would be good for us.
WTO, OECD,. Chairman of the Federal Reserve, chairman Bank of England etc are all saying the same.

I am afraid you have totally failed to convince me they are wrong.

Observer
Observer
June 7, 2016 3:07 pm

That’s why these things are called opinions APATS, not facts. :)
None of us can really predict the future, it really is more a matter of gut calls than anything else.

Mine was taken from the observation that companies like familiarity and consistency, so even with the exit, any pre-existing contracts are not going to be nulled and voided, especially since possible cancellation penalties might be present, so the economic “hit” the UK might take could be lesser than the “worst case” scenarios painted. The biggest problem would be market worry and uncertainty but that is a temporary problem, once people see “life as usual” going on, the pound should regain or even exceed any lost ground since it isn’t a structural problem and should go away once the fear and uncertainty is gone.

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 7, 2016 3:14 pm

@Observer

They are called opinions but that is also why courts have things called expert witnesses whose opinions in certain fields carry weight.
Also why some people are paid a lot of money to air those opinions.
In this case all these experts and organisations tell us the same thing that our departure from the EU will cost us financially.
Therss is based on being multi national economic experts with decades in international economics and trade and a huge understanding of the geopolitical and economic make up of the EU.

I harp on a bit but even during the Scottish Independence referendum economists disagreed, this time no credible organisation or person has said anything other than going is going to make you worse off. That says an awful lot.

wf
wf
June 7, 2016 3:27 pm

The thing about Brexit is that the risks are actually probably better quantified than those for Remain. We don’t know how bad the next Euro crisis / refugee flood / insane regulation will be or when they will arrive exactly. But they are going to, that’s for sure.

The risks to Brexit on the other hand can largely be summed up as loss of tariff free access to the EU single market. Given that only Russia and Belarus *don’t* have tariff free access right now, I’m feeling fairly relaxed.

BTW @APATS: some light reading for you :-)

http://static1.squarespace.com/static/570a10a460b5e93378a26ac5/t/5722f8f6a3360ce7508c2acd/1461909779956/Economists+for+Brexit+-+The+Economy+after+Brexit.pdf

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 7, 2016 3:40 pm

We are not in the Euro so that is irrelevant. Refugee flood? We will lose the ability to influence any EU policy on refugees so we no longer have any input into policy until they are sitting on a rubber boat in the channel and heh the EU does not have to take them back, we left :) extreme but no more unrealistic than some of the BREXIT BOYZ assumptions.
As for economics well I refer you to every expert and organisation to voice an opinion.
There will be a queue of companies in the EU waiting to take up what we currently provide.

Observer
Observer
June 7, 2016 3:42 pm

APATS, on the other hand, I’ve also seen “expert witnesses” been proven really, really wrong before, the most notable one was a professor of mine who took a look at a student’s presentation and the experimental results and went “Well, there goes 7 years of my work…”.

Even “expert witnesses” are subject to the laws of physics and can’t tell the future. They too give their “best guess” estimates and let the chips fall where it may. They used to call this type of “science” Futureology or something like that but that sort of died out as a specific field though the methodologies survived and are still being used today. And are still famous for their hit or miss predictions. In this case, I think their ideology of the “common market” predisposes the large organizations to lean towards a negative view of any attempt to split from the market.

And as I mentioned, my gut call is the opposite.

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 7, 2016 3:50 pm

@observer

As have I but what is common in trials is that expert oppose each other. Same as in the Scottish Independence Referendum.
Here they all agree and your “Gibbs” gut may tell you something different but I think you do not quite get the geopolitical complexity of the EU and trade.

Observer
Observer
June 7, 2016 4:00 pm

Actually APATS, the link wf provided shows that not all the experts agree and ironically the publication (which I suspect has a bias, “Economists for Brexit”, sounds neutral doesn’t it? :) ) does follow closely to my estimates. I usually hate to support something so obviously biased and one sided, but their points do tally with what I guess will happen.

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 7, 2016 4:06 pm

@Observer

Economists for BREXIT?

You know what is interesting about them is that a couple are members of organisations yet are not publishing on behalf of their organisations!

WiseApe
June 7, 2016 4:34 pm

Has anyone got the phone numbers of those economic experts who predicted the 2008 crash? Perhaps we should ask their opinion.

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 7, 2016 5:03 pm

@Wise Ape

6 Economists are reckoned to have forecast 2008. Of course huge! Difference between forecasting the result of an event and forecasting one just happening.
Nouriel Roubini probably foremost amongst them and his forecast for a BREXIT is not only financially bad but the break up of the UK and Europe.

Hannay
Hannay
June 7, 2016 5:13 pm

@apats

The problem with listening to the economic experts is that they are forecasting based on Project Fear’s worst case Brexit outcome where the UK just sort of slams down the portcullis.

The experts may not be wrong per se but their forecasts are irrelevant to scenarios that might actually happen e.g. UK leaves “EU” but the EEA construct is massively reformed. Free trade without political union – like every other free trade agreement…

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 7, 2016 5:19 pm

@Hannay

Huge assumption there. Far more likely these international independent organisations are forecasting on what their experiences tell them is likely to happen. Even utilising indicators such as the £60 Billion that has left the UK in the last 2 months compared to the £2 Billion in the previous 6?
Or the business people telling us jobs would go?

stephen duckworth
June 7, 2016 5:36 pm

Who predicted the sub-prime mortgage crash that felled Lehman Brothers etc etc , please watch the film The BIG Short .
On the UK suffering a short term economic contraction , more than possible but the implications of reducing the EU imposed burdens on companies operating in the iUK could , a very BIG could , swing investment into the iUK.
(P.S. APATS the figures you mentioned of £60bn ‘leaving’ the country , your source on that?)

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 7, 2016 5:43 pm

@Stephen Duckworth

http://news.sky.com/story/1708390/billions-of-pounds-leave-uk-ahead-of-eu-vote

At the moment cannot post to site other than from my mobile on 4G as my home ip just leads to awaiting moderation. So far more difficult to post links but not making it up.

stephen duckworth
June 7, 2016 6:28 pm

@APATS
Thanks for the link , the report of £77bn leaving in the run up to April ,with bulk of it ,£59bn , leaving in March is scary numbers. With the source of the article being the Bank of England who are presently in the “no comment” mode and hopefully planning for both outcomes such a capital flow is strong indicator of many analysts views on the outcome , if Britain votes in no big issue just buy back in , if out then ride the wave and buy in at the right millisecond or stay in the position your in.
Some investors are obviously very nervous , quite rightly , but the bulk of UK investors whose stake numbers in the £trillions are at present confident enough to stick with us.
Personally I think the EU needs a kick in the B*ll*cks to change its governing structure to be more in line with normal western governments. The whole Commissioner thing is fundamentally flawed IMHO.
A BREXIT might just be the best thing for both.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 7, 2016 7:32 pm

What worries me most about the Leave campaign is that it seems to be rather fact-free, like Trump´s presidential campaign. I knew all these claims were untrue without having to be told, but that´s because I have time to read the papers – what about all those people who don´t have time, and who may just think that Cameron is lying himself?

Cameron´s comments today:

And because they don’t have any credible experts on their side, what are [Vote Leave] reduced to? Telling complete untruths to the British people.

Now in the space of the past few days, here are six of them:

1 – They said we are liable to bail out eurozone countries. Not true. My renegotiation means we are categorically not liable for eurozone bailouts. It is there in black and white in the legally binding and irreversible negotiation deal.

2 – They said that our rebate, the money that we get back from the EU, is at risk. Again, not true. The British prime minister has a veto on changes to our rebate. Only a British prime minister could decide to give it up.

3 – They said we’ve given up our ability to veto EU treaties. Again, not true. There’s absolutely nothing in the renegotiation that gives up our veto as a full member of the European Union.

4 – They said we had no ability to stop overall EU spending from going up. Again, not true. The budget for the current period, 2014 to 2020, is set in stone and can only be changed with the consent of all countries, including the British prime minister. Again, it’s wrong to claim anything different, and by the way, the spending for this period is lower than in the last period because I negotiated a cut in the EU budget.

5 – They said we were powerless to stop Britain being forced in to an EU army. Again, not true. We have a rock solid veto on EU foreign and defence policy initiatives. Even if it was proposed, we would veto it. Just like William Hague did when he vetoed the idea of a European HQ on defence policy.

6 – They said we’d save £8bn if we left the EU. Again, not true – almost every credible economic organisation who’s looked at this has said that the economic shock of leaving Europe would cause a black hole in the public finances, and this would wipe out any saving that might be made. This black hole is estimated at between £20bn and £40bn. That is the scale of the damage that leaving would do to our ability to fund the NHS, our schools or our defences. Indeed, in an unprecedented intervention yesterday, the IFS – one of the most respected independent think tanks in our country – directly took on this falsehood from the leave campaign. They said, and I quote: “Leaving Europe would mean spending less on public services, or taxing more, or borrowing more”.

So there you have it. Credible experts warning about risks to our economic security on the one side, and a series of assertions that turn out to be completely untrue on the other. The leave campaign resorting to total untruths to con people into taking a leap in the dark.

It is irresponsible. It is wrong. It is time that the leave campaign was called out on the nonsense that they are peddling.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 7, 2016 8:11 pm

Watching the debate now. Farage asked about pharma, replies that he doesn´t like pharma because it it isn´t allowing ´alternative medicine´ to flourish. Pharma rep points out that alternative medicine isn´t proven against placebo. Once again, Farage seems to be in fantasy land.

Jeremy M H
June 7, 2016 8:25 pm

I have no dog in his fight but I would say that it is often a mistake that too many politicians and policy wonks make to focus entirely on a dry recitation of “facts”. A nation is more than an attempt to maximize economic gains and minimize economic risk. Like any cooperative venture people want a purpose behind it all. If the stay campaign is floundering it is because it doesn’t really speak to that primal need, at least not effectively.

I will say from across the ocean the one thing that made me mad as hell was our president saying the UK would be back of the line on a new trade deal. That is a heaping bunch of crap. The UK should go right to the top to the degree we put other business on hold. It’s not our place to say what you should do. But whatever you decide supporting the UK should be a first priority. Anyone who says otherwise doesn’t get my vote.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 7, 2016 8:31 pm

Well, it definitely doesn´t seem to pay in the US, JMH, and I think something similar may be happening now in the UK – for Trump, read Farage and Boris, not in terms of their policies (at least not in Boris´ case) but in terms of their complete lack of reliance on facts.

Jeremy M H
June 7, 2016 8:56 pm

NE

That is because the “facts” are neither compelling nor are they facts in the pure sense of the word.

People want a compelling reason to the question of why bother with all this. It’s something the west has largely lacked since the end of the Cold War. The EU in particular seems to lack a clear forward goal at the moment.

People advocating the status quo have to wear all of this. Is wish the Trumps and Farge types weren’t who they were. I think people vote that way simply because they see no difference in voting establishment candidates for the most part.

I have been on record with many that Trump is a protest candidate who is simply ignorant of basic facts of government and looks for simple solutions playing on anger. But many people would rather chance that than put in the ultimate insider deal that they are sick of.

It’s the same to a degree in the EU issue. People are mostly casting a vote against the nonsense they are sick of. They have a clear chance to tell the establishment to go suck a lemon and many will do so just for that reason.

These things exist because of a lack of leadership in western governments. Politics has been too tactical for too long. There is likely to be a heavy price paid by the establishment for having done so.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 7, 2016 9:01 pm

Well, I try to be a ´thinker´ rather than a ´feeler,´ so I will just say good luck with your approach!

Observer
Observer
June 7, 2016 9:26 pm

I do get Jeremy’s point and it’s one that I agree with. The question of stay or leave would not have come up if people saw a need or cause to remain in the EU.

That being said, the EU was a long time forming, ever since Harold Macmillian and his observation on the East of Suez policy that federations are centrifugal or centripetal, that they either look inward or look outward and that they can’t be both at the same time. In this, I think this is where a serious difference in viewpoint between the EU and the UK comes about. The EU is inward looking on Europe and European integration while the UK is beginning to have an eye out on the international stage after a period of introspection, so technically, the 2 are going in different directions.

And didn’t France once veto UK membership in the EEC?

Anyway, we’ll see how it goes in the vote.

As for the monetary losses, some of us already pointed out that capital flight is a temporary fear based response and will return once people see it’s much ado about nothing. That and profit taking. People selling just before a perceived drop in price. Then they’ll try and wait to catch the beginning of the rebound for more profit. Welcome to the international stocks market. It’s never “once gone never coming back”, it’s more “hit them when they are down” for profit. Not wrong, but don’t take their actions as approval or validation of economic policy, investors are only there for profit, not to rubber stamp economic policy.

TheGinge
TheGinge
June 8, 2016 8:26 am

Dear Necessary Evil can I just point out a few things that we all “know” as per dealing with the MoD or any Governmental organisation will find a way so :

1. We won’t have to pay for a Euro bailout. No we won’t what we will be asked to pay for is an intergovernmental solidarity payment or some such reworded amount. Basically anything but a “Euro” bailout, but bailout it will be caused by the failure of the Euro.

2. Nope on its own we will never have to give back our rebate. However as part of Lisbon Mk2 negotiations when the Euro Countries have to come together in ever political union to make the Euro work, then there will be a set of proposals a lot of which we will not like, what will happen is we will “negotiate” and as part of the deal struck we will give up the rebate to stop some of the harmful to the UK parts of the treaty change, the effect we’ve lost the rebate, but the EU will shout “you agreed to it” the same as a prisoner signs a confession with a Gun pointed at his head.

3. EU Treaty Veto. Again we negotiate if you’re in a club you get the best compromise you can. Using the Veto is like Nuclear Weapons, if you use it you’ve lost the war.

4. Spending. No the increase in EU spending was cut from an increase of 6% or 7% I forget the figure, to around 3% or no increase allowing for inflation (which in most of Europe is 0% or less so in fact it was an increase in the budget) but the ability to pay formula was changed, including taking in to account a countries “black” economy such as Drugs and Prostitution. Thus the UK contribution jumped by about £10bn a year. And this increase was only for items the EU already had competency over, all the new items that the EU have taken on under the treaty of Lisbon is not related to this increase, so the overall budget has gone up considerably, whilst the EU for the 30th year running can not get its accounts signed off by any external auditors.

5. Yes, but there is nothing stopping EU Countries pulling equipment and manpower from Nato posts and placing them in an EU Army. The Veto we have is for the UK to participate, so it is in fact an opt out, the EU Army will exist its just the UK will not allegedly contribute. However just look at the number of senior personnel appointed to joint commands in Europe and by the back door this will happen.

6. Again the stayers using cleaver words. So in net terms it ranges between £8bn and £15bn depending on which parts of the EU you wish to stay in, such as maybe the European Space Agency which you can stay a member of but not be a member of the EU. Since the UK contributes one of the largest shares to ESA you count it as EU money, but it would be the old DTi budget pre the EU.
As to the “black whole” please that is the Torry party getting it’s excuse in early. The world economy if you look at all the signs is heading for a recession mid to late 2016, it is nothing to do with in the EU or Out, the US for example has borrowing amounts higher than pre 2007, its job creation collapsed last year, China is hiding a massive currency and capital outflow all these world events are going to catch up soon and it has nothing to do with the EU. Secondly the Treasury and everybody else uses the Treasury models for the UK all use assumptions and certain guesses as to the future. Just 2 of those 100’s of assumption are off by 1% or 2% then we have a net gain of £10bn, remember George Osbourne finding £27bn down the back of the couch in November so he could stop the Working Tax Credit Cuts ? Then in April having to admit the forecasts now mean he needed to find £10bn of extra cuts or a swing in the figures of £37bn ?

As is usual with this debate people throw around “facts” when in fact they are guesses on how 27 other countries and a world economy are going to perform over the next 30yrs. Go back 30yrs to 1986 and could you have predicted all the recessions, housing booms and events in that period. Of course not. So the Remain campaign need too convince people like me who are still sitting on the fence, but know enough about the EU and Economics to know that the rubbish they are coming out with is claptrap. I look out of my window at a Town I live in that in the last 16yrs since 2000 has changed immensely, I see one street where men lounge around starring at Woman and shouting comments that only 16yrs ago would have not been acceptable and I am told its “cultural” I watch young people struggling to get jobs, I watch big business such as Mike Ashley’s make billions out of Polish workers, I watch the Labour Party admit it can never win another election so hopes the EU will protect workers rights to be on benefits and that is a pretty compelling augment to leave. The remainers need to show me a way that being in the EU would stop this and to date they have not.

A way that UK and European politicians can actually come out and be honest and not use weasel words such as “in REAL terms it is not an increase in the budget” but in fact the cost to the UK has gone from £350bn to £400bn in my mind that’s an increase. The list of outright lying done by the politicians in the remain camp and by EU Officials and Politicians are legion and in essence that lack of trust is why I might just vote leave, they have 15 days to set out a “Vision” that we will get the truth the whole truth and nothing less going forward and I am not holding my breath.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 8, 2016 9:17 am

TG, you seem to basically agreeing that in the case of 1,2,3 and 5 we don´t have to agree to anything, but it may be politically awkward not to do so, in which case we will have to decide whether we still want to be in the EU or not, surely? In the case of 4, you only responded to Cameron´s claim that EU spending has gone down, not to his claim that we have ultimate control over it. In the case of 6, it seems like both sides may be trying to get their excuses in early. The idea that the EU has nothing to do with it is a bit silly, since it is the largest trading bloc in the world. If the EU´s economy takes a hit the recession you are predicting will be worse, just as it would be if the economy of the US or China were to take a hit. I am not going to try to pretend that I know what will happen with the economy, but from what I understand volatility is something that it is best to avoid, and the pound is already being affected by the referendum.

As an aside, I really think the Brexiters should have gone Boris to debate Cameron, he´s a much more likeable buffoon than Farage.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 8, 2016 9:17 am

should have got, rather

wf
wf
June 8, 2016 10:36 am

@Necessary Evil: Farage was debating the PM because the PM refused to be a party to any debate with any Tory cabinet member.

Necessary Evil
Necessary Evil
June 8, 2016 10:39 am

Wf, I thought that might the case.

Tanzy Lee
Tanzy Lee
June 15, 2016 11:46 am

May I ask whether geographically Europe is part of the Global communities? Or should I mask my World map with tape to exclude Europe? (Try it- see if it looks right) Whether we leave or stay, it won’t go away.

jedibeeftrix
jedibeeftrix
June 17, 2016 4:33 pm
Observer
Observer
June 24, 2016 2:43 am

Bit of a necro but good luck on the Brexit. Ignore the panic selling in the market and the drop of the pound, those are literally panic and kneejerk reactions, give it 2 weeks and you’ll be back to normal again, so endure it out, it won’t last. Tough times don’t last. Tough people do.

JohnHartley
JohnHartley
June 24, 2016 7:33 am

As I type this, Cameron has just said he will go by October. Still waiting for the Bank of England. If they have any sense, they will raise base rate by 0.25%, to match the rate rise the Americans did last year. That would settle things. Once the bankers are on their yachts/Villas for six weeks from mid July & all of August, the markets will settle.

Jeremy M H
June 24, 2016 10:59 am

Agree market stuff is short term nonsense. Congrats on making your own destiny.

C...
C...
June 24, 2016 12:13 pm

I haven’t contibuted to the discussions on this fantastic forum for a long time, but waking up this morning I feel compelled to get some things off my chest. If only for my own sanity.
I am a member of the younger generation who appear to have voted largely for remain and who’ll have to live with the consequences of today’s referendum for decades to come.
I expect fully that the current economic and political turmoil will abate and I have great faith in UK business to figure out how to prosper in the new trading environment that will come out of this. Immigration isn’t even a top 10 issue for me.

My problem is that I wake up this morning feeling that this country has somehow become smaller. We seem to be on a more nationalistic, isolationist trajectory. The politics of “me me me” and not us & consensus. We could become marginalised when addressing the big issues of our time, like climate change or our increasing unstable world, that require big solutions. Our standing on the world stage will diminish. An anachronistic oddity on the edge of Europe, bleating on about past glories, with less and less influence over supranational issues that effect us.

There is no going back now, and I accept that. I’m not looking for a fight so please feel free to ignore this post. I just feel an incredible sadness by today’s events.

Observer
Observer
June 24, 2016 12:13 pm

Cameron should have stayed neutral throughout the decision. He came out too heavily in favour of one side and it cost him, but that’s hindsight. I expected Brexit, didn’t expect his too heavy support and need for resignation. Oh well.

And I’ll leave you guys with the words the Sultan of Brunei told us 50 years ago on a somewhat similar occasion:
“You’re finally out. Good, it’s better this way.”

Donald_of_Tokyo
Donald_of_Tokyo
June 24, 2016 1:13 pm

A decision is made. I respect for it.

In Japan, there is a worry about Scotland and North Ireland. I read that local governments stated they are planning new referendum to leave or stay-within GB. I lack information, how is the atmosphere there…?

Observer
Observer
June 24, 2016 1:47 pm

C, forging your own path does not mean becoming insular. In fact, it might just be the opposite! Federations by their own nature tend to be inward looking, most of the federations I know of usually put such a high focus on internal politics that they actually neglect external affairs, so if you want to be an internationally focused country, the EU is surprisingly *not* the way to go.

After all, you don’t hear much these days internationally about the African Union or the Federation of Malaya or the Federal Union of India. And even less so about their individual member states. Check how much the EU spends per year on “integration”.

No, you’re not smaller. You just stopped focusing purely on Europe.

Donald, I doubt the SNP’s going to get a second vote, or at least if they are smart, they won’t try for one, the previous vote is still fresh in people’s minds and trying again would make them seem like sore losers and annoy people for even worse results. All their current publicity stunts are just trying to make headlines to make them seem like they are “doing something”. As for Sinn Fein, they’re the “opposition party” in Ireland and you know opposition parties, lots of “opposition” not much action. The one to watch out for is the DUP (Democratic Unionist Party) and they haven’t said anything yet.

JohnHartley
JohnHartley
June 24, 2016 2:23 pm

Well the UK agreed on co-development of Concorde & Jaguar with France before the UK joined the EEC. Yes, the UK has voted to leave the EU, but that is no reason to stop joint development projects. In fact they might be just the thing to settle nerves. So if the Germans want a stealthy Tornado replacement using bits from the Typhoon, I see no reason why Britain should not be a partner in that.

wf
wf
June 24, 2016 4:34 pm

@Donald_of_Tokyo: Scotland cannot call another independence referendum. Only the UK government can do that, and since it’s less than two years since the last one, that’s unlikely. As well as being a bit “EU”, where unwanted voters are told to bloody well think again and vote the right way, this time :-(

On a practical basis, the SNP doesn’t want one. It knows perfectly well it would lose, not least because there is no oil money at the moment. This is just Nicola salving the cybernats :-)

wf
wf
June 24, 2016 4:38 pm

@C…: I’m at a loss as to how a decision that will involve us interacting directly with the world rather than via a large supranational bureaucracy is supposed to make us more insular. We will also have a full vote in various international bodies, rather than the current 1/28th.

On the subject of nationalism, what did you think “ever closer union” was, exactly?

stephen duckworth
June 24, 2016 6:45 pm

The next stage of this process , exiting EU control , will be most interesting .Calm ,clear heads are needed to examine why the iUK voted the way it did and what the public want from it. Many EU imposed laws and declarations are perfectly sensible and fit with a progressive ,inclusive society but others impinge on our national sensibilities and concepts of “fairness” about what we should support and what is a step to far. We as a Nation are the ONLY ones in the World that meet the 0.7% GDP overseas aid target and one of only three NATO countries that meet the spending goal of 2% GDP.
We also heavily support the Commonwealth ( obviously some crossover of spending here ) and are key player in global politics and commerce ,sometimes being the only sane voice in the room.
We must strive to maintain our present position in the rest of the world and ensure that there is minimal repercussions in terms of trade and support of our beneficent aspirations across the globe in maintaining peace and prosperity.
Basically , situation normal as far as the rest of the world is concerned but we will deal with our own internal politics on our own.

The Other Chris
June 24, 2016 7:43 pm

It is EU institutions overruling UK ones that has been a common theme as well. If the Supreme Court makes a ruling, a European Court overriding that decision was a step too far for many.

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 24, 2016 9:34 pm

Not true Westminster can make a referendum binding but we can have one any time and we will.
Scotland has had enough of being ignored by Marseille rioting, union short wearing Essex wide boys.
We have grown apart and last night was the final straw.
Scotland is ready to take its place among the small successful nations of Europe.

Don
Don
June 24, 2016 9:52 pm

The morning after the night before .

Definitely remember going to bed in the EU, but don’t know where I woke up this morning !

The Other Chris
June 24, 2016 10:06 pm

“Britain will ‘go to back of trade queue’, White House says” – Reuters

Observer
Observer
June 24, 2016 10:38 pm

TON, I wasn’t aware that there was a “trade queue”. So where is this list that is mentioned? :)

This seriously illustrates the flaw that politicians know nuts about business.

It’s even bad enough that I’m starting to think Trump for president isn’t that bad an idea. And I think he’s a lunatic! But at least they get a president that actually does business, so at least knows what’s going on.

james d
james d
June 24, 2016 11:31 pm

apats tearing england and scotland apart will be far more damaging to both countries than leaving the EU ever would be,and you think your voice will be heard more loudly in brussels than london?
makes me laugh cant be in our union but an even bigger one where you have less say is ok?
makes sense.

Brian Black
Brian Black
June 25, 2016 5:06 am

Observer, you can’t really expect a political leader to not express an opinion in a referendum campaign like this; particularly as when Cameron first made the pledge to hold an EU referendum, nearly three and a half years ago, he also pledged to put his “heart and soul” into the remain campaign.

We see what wishy-washy political leadership gets you with Labour MPs now calling for a vote of no confidence against their guy.

Cameron could probably continue. Leading Tory Brexiteers pledged their support for Cameron shortly before the referendum, regardless of outcome.

I think the main reason that Cameron resigned is that, having supported EU membership, he does not want to be the one to enact the treaty clause to leave the EU. Remember also that this is a PM who has already stated he would be stepping down before the next election; the timing now allows for the cleanest exit, with a new leader in place before the next party conference, and plenty of time to establish themselves before the next general election.

I think Cameron has at least ensured that the Conservative leadership handover will be smoother than the potentially messy assassination set in motion by Labour MPs.

Brian Black
Brian Black
June 25, 2016 5:37 am

APATS, a Scottish independence referendum that has not originated in Westminster, and is not a legislative referendum, is at best a petition. As a consequence, one might expect the outcome to be in favour of independence, as Scottish nationalists would be much more inclined to bother voting than unionists.

While you insist that Scotland can and will hold this non-binding referendum (petition/opinion poll), not even the SNP support you on that. The SNP has only announced that they will prepare Scottish legislation to facilitate a possible referendum in the event of primary legislation from Westminster.

A referendum without Westminster legislation would risk the credibility of the nationalist cause (if there was any outcome other than a landslide for independence) and risk increasing voter apathy through electoral fatigue – with unpredictable outcomes and diminished mandate with a small turnout.

Observer
Observer
June 25, 2016 6:19 am

BB, I get what you mean but I still find it a pity. Not because he did something wrong but simply because he supported a position that the majority disagreed with. If people were to be penalized for that, then 48% of the UK’s population would have to be punished.

Can’t stop him if he wants to resign, but it’s a pity.

Brian Black
Brian Black
June 25, 2016 6:24 am

There is no justification to hold another Scottish independence referendum.

Part and parcel with Scotland’s decision to stay in the UK is the acceptance that the majority public opinion in Scotland may differ from the majority public opinion in the UK as a whole – on this or any other issue.

The EU referendum has been a nationwide UK vote. At the time of the Scottish independence referendum, the population of Scotland were a minority part of the UK population – this is not a condition that has only arisen after the Scottish referendum. When Scotland’s residents voted to remain part of the UK, any reasonable person would have realised that folks north of the border could be outnumbered on nationwide UK decisions if they chose to remain.

Both the Scottish independence and EU membership referendums were promised by David Cameron and the Conservative party. Cameron first made the pledge to hold an in-out EU referendum twenty months before the Scottish independence referendum was held. The EU referendum was not sneakily introduced after the Scottish vote. At the time of the Scottish referendum, and decision to remain part of the UK, any reasonable person would have known that a subsequent EU referendum was a realistic prospect.

There were no conditions or qualifications on the Scottish independence ballot paper. No Scottish vetoes were offered. No promises were made to return to the question of independence under any circumstances. A single, unqualified decision was offered to the people of Scotland – wholly approved by the largest nationalist party in Scotland.

The people of Scotland got what they voted for. There will always be winners and losers – that’s democracy in action. Some losers need to learn to deal with that fact; not everyone can have everything their way all of the time.

jedibeeftrix
jedibeeftrix
June 25, 2016 8:00 am

“The EU referendum was not sneakily introduced after the Scottish vote. At the time of the Scottish referendum, and decision to remain part of the UK, any reasonable person would have known that a subsequent EU referendum was a realistic prospect.”

Agreed, BrianB

JohnHartley
JohnHartley
June 25, 2016 8:21 am

Teddy Roosevelt said “speak softly, but carry a big stick”. I think that applies to diplomacy as well as the military. Yes, the “Leave” leaders need to heal wounds & speak nicely, but they also need to hint at the retaliation if others choose to pick on Britain.
Why rush to buy P-8s or any other American equipment while Obama says Britain is at the back of the Q for a trade deal?
Juncker has got the mood wrong. Ruling out any new deal & promising revenge on Britain is the recipe for a trade war with high tariffs. Merkel should override him. The vote was 52-48. A semi detached membership of the EU for Britain would be near guaranteed to pass in a second referendum. Also handy for other EU nations threatening to leave.

Mark
Mark
June 25, 2016 8:54 am

There’s a lot of huffing from the European establishment over this result. They’ve made a very gd living out of Brussels but there is growing dissatisfaction across the people of Europe that to much political and legal dictate is coming from a European system nobody really wanted or voted for. A common market not a United States of Europe. One less level of beuracracy and politicians is no bad thing.

The SNP are much like there Europe counterparts they want to keep re running once in a lifetime votes until they get the right answer the SNP were at it as soon as the lost last years vote perhaps we should have best out of 3!

30m plus people went and freely exercised there democratic right which many on here have fought to defend. For a country that has over the last number of years suffered very low turnouts at general elections we should take some pride in that and use it as an example to the world.

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 25, 2016 12:59 pm

@BB

In one post you sum up exactly why Scotland will be leaving the UK. Arrogant and ill informed. You have no idea of the mood up here and it is not good.
Are Westminster really going to deny us our Democratic right to choose.
No chance, we will have the paperwork through before Cameron levels because he at least is an honourable man.

This is the last election where the compassionate liberal Democracy of Scotland is out voted by people like those that trashed Marseille.

Brian Black
Brian Black
June 25, 2016 1:01 pm

Observer, I voted to remain in the EU, but I won’t be sorry to see those that ran such a poor remain campaign step aside.

As well as running a poor campaign, Cameron has been happy to bash the EU and its institutions over the years when it has suited his agenda. He has himself helped to build the negative attitudes towards the EU that have taken us out. Don’t shed too many tears for the guy.

Brian Black
Brian Black
June 25, 2016 2:01 pm

APATS, far from being arrogant and ill informed, I think I’ve set out an impartial and accurate assessment of the facts. Preferring or wishing that the situation was different does not change the facts of the matter.

Looking at what the SNP are doing, they seem to have a well rehearsed plan for this contingency, and the key theme of their plan appears to be immediacy.

The SNP don’t really have the authority to deal with any of the things currently being urgently expressed – whether it’s calling a referendum or negotiating with the EU.

The urgency being applied seems intended to bounce the UK government into allowing a new Scottish referendum. The SNP might as well be shouting in an empty room though. Cameron’s immediate resignation has inadvertently sidestepped this issue. He’s still PM until a leadership contest has taken place; but he’s a zombie PM who has no authority and who can make no such major constitutional pledges. The UK government is now incapable of being rushed on this matter.

It is also not a case of Cameron being a good egg and pushing through the paperwork for a new Scottish referendum before his time is up. A legislative referendum requires legislation. An Act of Parliament has to be passed which allows Scottish independence to take place, and which sets out the means by which that legislation is enacted, ie, the terms of the referendum. Resignation or not, it is not in the power of the Prime Minister to pass that legislation independently of both houses of Parliament.

Another reason for the SNP’s urgency regarding independence is that UK exit from the EU could take years to actually happen. If the nationalists cannot create a rapid momentum towards a new referendum, the danger for them is that many Scottish voters who wanted to remain in the EU will look around and see that nothing particularly bad has happened.

If this time next year a new Scottish referendum is no closer, and nothing much has changed for the average Scotsman in the street, there will be a growing indifference to the result of the increasingly distant EU referendum. The EU factor in the result of any new Scottish independence referendum will be increasingly diminished, yet the nationalists need that EU factor to have any hope of tipping the balance towards independence.

Elizzar
Elizzar
June 25, 2016 3:25 pm

Brain Black – I think you are making some excellent points. I am very angry at the posturing of Sturgeon as it is not helping anyone really. I’ve just read Merkel has come out with some very reasonable statements about not rushing things or being retaliatory. The SNP are out to cause trouble. As you say, over 33 million UK citizens voted, and 17 million plus voted to leave. That’s around three times the total population of Scotland alone. Unfortunately this is how democracy works and one side must lose. There were 2.7 million votes cast in Scotland in the EU vote. There were 1.7 million for Remain and 1 million for Leave. In the independence vote 3.6 million turned out; the Yes number was around the same as Remain – 1.6 million – but No was 2 million. So around a million-ish less voters in the EU vote turned out. I’m not saying they would all be Leave, but they might have been. We don’t know. I recall the Scottish referendum and the finance claims etc. In reality, if Scotland had gone independent, it would already be bankrupt, as those figures were widely optimistic. If Scotland were to leave now (or in the next year) what has changed in this regard? With the rest of the UK leaving, the EU budget will be diminished and so there will not be magic pots of gold to support the Scottish economy. Of course, that assumes Scotland would be accepted into the EU. It would have to apply as any other ‘new’ country and that could take a while. All in all, I think the sensible position in Scotland would be to wait and see what happens over the next couple of years. I appreciate the anger, but then where I live – the old industrial north of England – would have been equally angry with a Remain vote. The blame for all this farce is the lack of the governments – UK and across the EU – to take seriously the complaints of voters. Discussing immigration concerns, or job fears, or welfare / health / education pressures due to population shifts, is not racist in of itself. A lot of my neighbours feel abandoned and insulted by their representatives and this is the result of 20+ years of being told “you’re wrong, and stupid, and racist”. Blame Brown, Blair, Corbyn, Cameron and the rest. Let’s take a big deep breath, be respectful and reasonable to reach other, and not rush anything in the next few weeks.

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 25, 2016 3:28 pm

@BB

Wait and watch. You totally fail to grasp what has just happened and what is about to happen.
As for support you are so distant it is incredible. If I am going Yes and a lot of my professional colleagues too then it is a stick on.

JohnHartley
JohnHartley
June 25, 2016 3:59 pm

APATS. Remember the UK vote was 52 to 48%. I think Merkel has already hinted at some sort of associate membership in the EU for the UK. Scotland should keep its powder dry, until it sees what sort of a deal Merkel makes to the whole UK. Then is the time to make a decision.

The Other Chris
June 25, 2016 4:25 pm

The initial demographics are in, and far from being “Made in Chelsea watching Essex boys rioting in Marseille”, it’s a group of voters that are far, far more surprising. Turns out they voted to Remain as well. (Probably because they like getting pissed in Marseille…).

Leavers: It’s ex Bristol Siddley engineers. It’s ex British Leyland workers. It’s Sheffield steel smelters. It’s ex Yorkshire colliers. It’s Nurses who worked under the Matron system. It’s former members of the Merchant Navy. Sailors from a 40+ escort Navy. Airmen from a 17 squadron force. Soldiers who participated in a single, sustained, 28,000 troop contribution. It’s an age group that voted in 1975 to join the European Economic Community in the first place.

It’s also those living in the parts of the country that during the timeline of the EEC and EU (with us a part of or not, with or without opt-outs) have suffered the closure of industries, the removing of railways and infrastructure, the shutting of trading ports, devastated fishing communities, the green-tax hit oil industry, cities where shipbuilding was sacrificed on the altar of keeping Remain voters elsewhere happy, the locations with the fewest MP’s per capita and those places receiving the least investment from either Westminster or the EU.

Those locations who do not feel they benefit from the City financial sector or the Single Market, who feel that regenerating areas under the flag of the EU brand with strings attached using the UK’s own money is inefficient, who may be able to sell into the Free Market of the rest of the planet if they were able.

Without constituency voting system protecting the establishment and the status quo, a directly proportional vote has been held and the areas that have been neglected and ignored for, at the least 30 years, have received a 1:1 weighting in a voting booth.

Now…

No matter which way you voted or which “area” your political class is claiming voted the other way, we’ve had our ships burned. But not TD’s precious bridges.

There’s no going back to the EU the way it was. It’s right there in the referendum Act: No takebacks (the technical term for it, I believe).

Even if Scotland and Northern Ireland (who also need to respect their own not-insignificant volume of Leave voters) “referend” to leave the UK and join the EU, they still can’t Remain as it is now with the veto’s and opt-outs that the UK used to (currently?) have/has. Is France/Germany going to let Scotland into their top-table veto club? They’d have to apply and will be looking at a second fiddle arrangement akin to the latest Eastern European joiners.

Is that a better position than the UK could negotiate in it’s exit?

Because on the other hand if – and it is indeed a big if – the UK as a whole (including Scotland and NI) can negotiate a close to a status quo financial and trade arrangement with Europe as possible for our existing primary industries, there are regions of the UK that are itching to do some form of business, almost any business, and the rest of the world open to trade that the EU has been unable, unwilling or just not interested allowing us to open up deals with.

There is a chance, if we work hard, that we can preserve the majority of our trade with Europe and export to the globe at the same time.

Our markets have not tanked overnight as the doomsayers claimed: The FTSE 100 actually closed 2% up on last week believe it or not. Germany’s Dax crashed twice as far (-6% vs -3%) on the day. Our currency has fallen in dollar terms, but only dipped against an also-slumping Euro. There’s carbon-taxes and tariffs that can be dropped immediately to ameliorate the oil purchasing power of a dipped GBP/USD rate so that pump prices don’t rocket. Plenty of options for a historically opportunistic nation with a reasonably high education level and a majority skilled workforce.

Every change gets worse before it gets better. You just have to work hard to shorten the timescale of the dip.

As Clarkson, a Remain voter allegedly, has tweeted:

https://twitter.com/JeremyClarkson/status/746350798112710660

mickp
mickp
June 25, 2016 4:30 pm

@Elizzar “Let’s take a big deep breath, be respectful and reasonable to reach other, and not rush anything in the next few weeks.”

Precisely

Peter Elliott
June 25, 2016 5:13 pm

APATS much as I respect your professional views as a Warfare Officer you are now frothing: take a chill pill.

Mark
Mark
June 25, 2016 6:14 pm

A lot has been made in the media of how the Scottish have voted how Londoners voted Northern Irish voted how the young were somehow done over by old people. It’s becoming farcical, we’re all British citizens no matter were we live our age colour or creed we all had 1 vote which was just as important as anyone else’s. Some people may not like it but that’s democracy in action I’ve never seen so many sore losers.

Observer
Observer
June 25, 2016 6:16 pm

I’m not exactly sure if a pro-independent Scotland vote is going to be better the 2nd time around. IIRC, the EU votes were about a 38/62 percent split? That’s about a 12 percent majority, but there is one major caveat, that all the 12 percent is pro-independent Scotland. It’s very possible that a fraction of the voters are the ones in the middle ground. Pro-UK but anti-EU. For all we know, the vote could even go the other way, people that are pro-independence but anti-EU might simply go “No thanks!” just to stay out of the EU.

Reminds me of the old Venn diagrams we had in school.

So technically we can have 4 factions:
Pro-independence/Pro-EU
Pro-Independence/Anti-EU
Anti-Independence/Pro-EU
Anti-independence/Anti-EU

And a possible last faction: “A pox on all your houses!! Get lost and don’t disturb me!!” :)

stephen duckworth
June 25, 2016 6:18 pm

Perhaps those north of the border are pissed because of the EU funding they will lose .The 2014-2020 EU allocation was 941m euros.
http://www.gov.scot/Topics/Business-Industry/support/17404/EuropeanStructuralFunds
They have no need to worry as Westminster, on top of the 27% extra each Scottish citizen receives more than an English one from the Barnett formula , will make up the loss from the net 11.342bn euros of contributions we will gain from leaving.
http://europa.eu/about-eu/countries/member-countries/unitedkingdom/index_en.htm
And whatever happened to Scotland raising taxes locally , it has had the abilitity raise/lower income tax by 3% since 1999 but hasn’t used this ability . Council tax has been frozen for 8 years in Scotland and tracks Westminster guideline exactly for business tax except giving relief to big business’s.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-35470086

Observer
Observer
June 25, 2016 6:30 pm

SD, unless each and every one get a check from the government monthly or annually, I have my doubts that the common man will be seeing much of that money. I don’t mind reasons for leaving the EU, but to say that every man will get $X amount from leaving is a misrepresentation of the issue, most won’t even see that money. Maybe as a tax rebate or a tax reduction, but hard cash? Not likely.

And tax reduction?… Maybe, but I have my doubts. When has any politician liked to lower taxes when they didn’t have to, even those that use it as a campaign promise? :)

mr.fred
mr.fred
June 25, 2016 6:32 pm

APATS,
Your post at 15:28 is quite threatening. Was that intended?

TD,
Enforced change of email. The old one’s still active for a week or so if you want to check

Julian
Julian
June 25, 2016 7:07 pm

@SD, @Observer – If by extra money you mean the saving on the EU contributions, finally pretty much agreed by both sides to be about £8.5 billion net per year after deducting the UK rebate and money that came back to the UK via EU funding of UK projects, I’m afraid that consequences of Brexit are very likely to more than offset that saving for many years at least.

I did some calculations this morning based on current issued index-linked debt (fixed rate doesn’t count because interest rate is locked in) plus expected new-issue index-linked and fixed rate over the coming few years. If one then accepts that the decline in the pound is likely to import extra inflation (which BoE is expecting) and possible credit rating downgrades (Moody’s has already downgraded us to negative outlook and S&P has said a downgrade is likely) increasing fixed interest rates (which will apply to new issue only) then a 2% increase in inflation plus a 1% increase in fixed rate interest translates to an additional £8.61 billion required each year to service government debt. That’s before you even start factoring in lower tax revenues due to banking industry relocating high earners out of London (Morgan Stanley already rumoured to be planning to move 2,000 to Dublin & Frankfurt after the Brexit result and, although denying it, the denial is carefully worded to say they’re not planning any immediate action. They are already on record prior to the vote that they would look at moving staff on Brexit).

Basically the Brexiteers have pressed self-destruct on the UK economy. OK, it clearly isn’t going to be anything like destroyed but the damage done initially will be significant and it is unclear whether this vision of an envigirated, unfettered global trading powerhouse that emerges will ever happen and, if it does, how much damage will need to be repaired before we end up with a net benefit. All in all the UK has just made a very bad decision.

All Politicians are the Same
All Politicians are the Same
June 25, 2016 7:47 pm

@Mr Fred

I do not see it as threatening in the slightest and it was certainly not intended to be.
Was not even warning one stuff.
What we have is a huge Democratic deficit best described by Sir Tom Device in a piece in the Herald.

We have grown apart and seem to share differing values. Time for one of the oldest countries in the world to resume it’s rightful place.

mr.fred
mr.fred
June 25, 2016 8:12 pm

APATS,
In isolation perhaps it is benign, but read with the others?

There are a great many pithy quote regarding the foibles of democracy; without repeating them here the best I can do is point out that removing yourself from dissenting opinions does nothing to broaden your horizons and that the best way to get your point across is not by demonising the “other side”

Observer