F35B – Hedging Ones Bets

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Whilst the Lockheed Martin F35B STVOL Joint Strike Fighter is the preferred option to fulfil the Joint Combat Aircraft requirements for the RAF and FAA, replacing the Harrier, the door has long been left open for an alternative.

But what alternative?

There isn’t really an alternative to the STVOL F35B, unless one considers a redesign of the Harrier a worthwhile venture, it is the only game in town if one wants the flexibility of short take off and vertical landing.

F35B would also allow the RAF and FAA to share training and logistics, recognising that flying off the CVF will not always be the mode of operation and expeditionary planning generally calls for the initial flying to be done with CVF with follow on operations moving the aircraft to land bases that can support more sustained operations. Sortie generation rates also favour the F35B and a recent runway closure at Kandahar in Afghanistan meant that the only aircraft that was able to provide CAS were Joint Force Harrier aircraft.

Although the F35B was always going to cost more than the conventional carrier take off and landing version this was amply offset by the cost of installing catapults and traps, the cost of maintaining them and more significantly, the cost of maintaining carrier landing skills.

These are extremely perishable skills and need an enormous amount of training to maintain safety.

If we want to extract maximum benefit from the significant investment in the fast jet fleet, STVOL is the most sensible option.

The worst outcome in terms of cost would be a separate RN and RAF jet fleet using 2 variants of the F35, CTOL for the RN and STVOL for the RAF. Add on the aspirations of the RAF for a Tornado GR4 replacement that might be  fulfilled by another F35 variant and the capital and through life operating costs start spiralling upwards.

Rumours abut interest in F18′s, Sea Typhoon and Sea Grippen continue to float around and of course the other option of sharing a carrier force with the French and therefore Rafale is also regularly hinted at.

Lack of ratification of the ITAR treaty, with the US clearly reneging on an agreement on technology transfer to allow the UK full sovereignty over its F35′s, continues to cast a long shadow over the programme. The Defence Select Committee covered this in a 2005 report

We fully support MoD’s position that the ability to maintain and upgrade the JSF independently is vital. We would consider it unacceptable for the UK to get substantially into the JSF programme and then find out that it was not going to get all the technology and information transfer it required to ensure ‘sovereign capability’. This needs to be sorted out before further contracts are signed and we expect MoD to set a deadline by which the assurances need to be obtained. If the UK does not receive assurances that it will get all it requires to ensure sovereign capability, we would question whether the UK should continue to participate in the JSF programme

We all know the MoD is absolutely strapped for cash, every option to save money is being looked at so read into this announcement what you will.

Converteam F35B   Hedging Ones Bets

Converteam have made excellent progress with the EMCAT system and although only scaled for small UAV’s the intention was clear, at the end of the programme, this month, a number of challenges had been solved.

The F35B’s continued problems and uncertainty over costs mean that a Plan B makes a lot of sense.

£650k might seem like something the MoD loses down the back of a sofa but this was a significant investment and talking of its success sends a message to all concerned with the F35 and those wanting us to share CVF with the French

The door is still open.

Is It Starting to Unravel for the JSF?

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Aviation Week are reporting that Denmark’s Ministry of Defence is gearing up to recommend changing the preferred design to fulfill its fighter replacement programme  from the Lockheed Martin F35 Joint Strike Fighter to another design, likely the Boeing FA-18E/F.

Seismic news, not so much in the impact on production orders or even industrial participation but because it would be the first of the launch partners to jump ship and hugely symbolic.

Of course, this is just speculation and no official announcement has been made but whether they do change their mind and go for the F18 or even other contenders like Typhoon, Gripen NG or Rafale it might just be the catalyst for other nations to do likewise.

FDR – Maritime (Amphibious and Logistics)

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To set the scene for this post, our earlier suggestion of cancelling CVF and JCA was nothing short of a brutal cost saving measure. Some may argue that significant costs have already been sunk and contracts signed, to cancel now would not result in any savings. This is simply not the case, yes, there would be a great deal of waste but to continue means even more cost for both the RN and RAF because you can’t have an aircraft carrier with no aircraft. The pressure on the defence equipment budget as a whole will also inevitably mean reductions in capability elsewhere, across all three services, something has to give. It also fails to recognise the reality of the mono culture in UK military shipbuilding, cancelling would need some compensation and tough negotiating combined with a solid commitment to future business but would not be the disaster many paint it as being.

As an attempt at a more balanced fleet the suggestion on Think Defence was a slight increase in the Astute numbers to 8, keeping Type 45 at 6, a small quantity (6) fully specified C1 and a couple of novel C2/C3 concepts from a number of our contributors. Obviously with the loss of maritime fast jet aviation we would be out of the forced entry amphibious game although the combination of UAV’s, FLAADS/CAMM, Attack Helicopter and Type 45 might mitigate some of the loss of capability.

Read more…

A Billion Here, A Billion There

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And pretty soon you are talking serious money.

Revisiting the F35B Joint Combat Aircraft and CVF theme, the true costs have which yet to reveal themselves but to date it is a rough estimate that we have either spent or contractually committed to spend about 3 to 4 billion pounds on the two programmes in design effort, materials, studies and initial purchases. The £2billion invested in the JSF programme is just that, an investment so even if we were to withdraw a healthy return would still be likely, unless of course that is the US cancels it.

Cancelling them both would be a enormous waste of that money but at some point there comes a time when you have to cut your losses and run.

No one knows the actual cost of the final, delivered version of the F35B, the preferred option to fulfil the joint Combat Aircraft for the RAF and RN future carriers. The initial number of 150 aircraft was predicated on a minimal increase in costs and a low price, the great white hope of an affordable airframe was the promise, yeah right, the cheque is in the post!

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B or C

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As a penance for our last sweary blog posting…

Recent reports of a rumour from the usual ‘reliable defence sources’ indicates that the MoD is considering switching its preferred option to fulfil the Joint Combat Aircraft from the F35B STVOL version to the traditional carrier version, the F35C. The MoD reiterated its preferred option is the B model.

The whole argument is like two bald men arguing over a comb.

Either option is, we think, a poor one for the Royal Navy and UK armed forces.

Whilst having carrier borne aviation (something by the way the Royal Navy and Royal  pioneered) is without a doubt a superb military capability to have we think at this point, it is simply not worth the basic cost or more importantly, the distortion it causes to the rest of the Royal Navy surface and sub surface fleet.

So whilst everyone else is dabbling in conjecture and opinion so here is ours…

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F35 Hacked! (and other creative headlines)

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Last March the US Inspector General of the Department of Defence issued a report on the Security Controls in the Joint Strike Fighter programme that raised concerns on information security. In this report it highlighted specific concerns about the lack of visibility of records from BAE Systems and therefore information may have been compromised.

It is somewhat of a leap to say that just because you can’t see the records that security may have been breached.

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Does Anyone Know How Much a JCA Will Cost?

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There are three versions of the F35 or Joint Strike Fighter. The Royal Navy and Royal Air Force’s preferred option to fulfil the Joint Combat Aircraft requirement to replace the existing Harriers is the F35B variant. The final decision on aircraft and numbers will be taken in in 2013 although in practice the decision on type has already been made, the lack of catapults (or the ordering of these long lead time items) on the CVF signposts the decision.

Read more…

Links and Updates

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About Think Defence

Think Defence is the collected ramblings of a few people that wish defence to go much higher up the UK national agenda, recognising that the answer is not always more money but better spending. Although focused on UK issues, anything we find interesting will find its way in. We operate a fairly open door policy and encourage guest contributors, if you want to say something just contact us or leave a comment. This will result in blog entries that disagree with each other but that it fine, debate is good. Where we are incorrect (and it will happen, probably a lot) just let us know, review and correction strengthen the quality of posts. Finally, it's just a blog, so don't take it too seriously!

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