Linking A400 and FSTA

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Liam Fox has been urging industry to improve value for money for the taxpayer. The irony is that the majority of cost inflation is caused by government interference but that’s another story.

“The defence programme is entirely unaffordable – especially if we try to do what we need to do in the future while simultaneously doing everything that we’ve done in the past

Without cost containment in the current programmes, we have no option but to either cut the programmes currently under way or curtail investment in future programmes. We demand, and the nation expects, that our armed forces are provided with the equipment and support they require to do the jobs that we ask them to do. But in addition, we demand, and the nation expects, that we can demonstrate value for money on defence expenditure”

Serious stuff indeed.

So with that as a backdrop, very limited money and a real pressure for defence suppliers to contribute to cost savings, a stated desire for greater collaboration/resource sharing with the French and Saint Vince of the Cable said to be looking seriously at the FSTA PFI, we have a number of strands that could combine to create a more efficient package.

We have discussed the FSTA PFI a number of times, it seems a PFI too far and on face value, extremely poor value for money for a very ordinary capability. The aircraft that form the service will not be able to refuel a number of RAF types, it will not be able to take on fuel whilst airborne itself and a number of other design deficiencies that are deliberately accepted to ensure the aircraft can be used in the civilian market when not required by the RAF.

We need a mature and very carefully considered approach that provides a realistic and effective capability whilst maintaining the profit of the various companies involved. Profit is not a dirty word because it sustains these manufacturers and that is of course, good for the country.

When we look at the organisations that form part of the Airtanker PFI consortium and the manufacturer of the A400 we see a range of organisations that have the potential for business with the MoD and DGA beyond the A400 and tankers.

Cobham, VT, Rolls Royce, Thales and of course, EADS (parent of Airbus)

Everyone knows the FSTA is a bad deal so if the consortium members decide to lawyer up and enforce their penalty clauses then maybe we might reconsider the A400 and other deals the consortium members are involved in. After all, we can simply walk away from the A400 with no penalties whatsoever and in any arrangement, if both parties agree to walk away, there is no need for expensive contract lawyers.

Its time we stopped being a frightened lamb and got everyone around the table and discuss a long term future that would both deliver capability and sustain industrial capacity to the benefit of all.

Both the UK and France have substantial requirements for the A400

Both the UK and France have substantial requirements for an airborne refuelling and strategic transport aircraft

Training, maintenance and other facilities could be pooled and whilst there are significant issues about the sharing mechanisms there are options worth considering. We don’t have to share the aircraft in their entirety, a national buy plus a shared pool might provide a baseline capability for both the UK and France whilst providing surge capacity for UK/French use or even to other nations.

If we pooled our resources, contracted with OCCAR and created a single ‘mega deal’ we could realise cost savings for the UK and French armed forces whilst providing the industrial partners with a stable long term deal, both are desirable in the kind of financial environment of the day.

Cool heads, maturity, pragmatism and a long term view need to prevail, not contract lawyers.

A400 at Farnborough

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What is in store for the A400?

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As we know, it is due to replace the RAF C130K models, is over budget and will be in service later than expected.

Business as usual then.

Negotiations are still ongoing for the final share of the overspend, various partner nations are talking about order reductions and nothing concrete seems to have come out into the public yet.

Prediction time, the MoD will eventually settle on 22 A400′s and retire the C130J’s early as part of the future SDR moving at an accelerated pace to its ‘two type strategy’

The A400 will also be included in a ‘deal’ with EADS that includes the A330 and the cancellation of the FSTA PFI, this will also be integrated into a joint programme with the French combining strategic transport, air refuelling and tactical transport.

That’s my contribution to the rumour mill for today.

Are We There Yet?

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Despite several ‘deadlines’ coming and going it looks like a deal on the A400 is close

Aviation News International is reporting that the deal will see a reduction in quantities but no reduction in order value. So although EADS looks like it is going to be allowed to renege on a fixed price contract it doesn’t like by that much.

Read more…

A400, talks about talks conclude, let’s talk

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The brinkmanship seems to be coming to a conclusion on the saga that is the A400 with the partner nations concluding talks on their negotiating position. They will now invite EADS to the table to conclude a way forward.

Whilst there remains differences between the partner nations they all recognise that common ground needs to be found and found fast.

The A400 has blown its budget by over  €11 billion and is three years late, the delivery issue remains particularly acute for a number of partner nations as their existing transport aircraft fleets are being flogged to death in high intensity operations in Afghanistan and elsewhere. Costs of plugging the gap must be factored into the cost over runs. EADS has asked the partner nations for a 25% increase, about half of the total cost over run, EADS shouldering the rest.

The consequences of cancellation are dire both for the European aerospace industry and European defence collaboration, which would lead some to say that the A400 is an overly political project that shows the folly of greater European defence integration.

I think the A400 is safe but the partner nations, through OCCAR, must not let EADS off the hook too easily. It is likely that delivery time scales will be elongated, some compromise on initial operating capabilities and dispensing with contract penalties for late delivery will be accepted.

EADS may also contribute aircraft to meet the interim capability gap with a mix of Airbus and CASA aircraft.

Even if the full cost increase is accepted there must be a quid quo pro.

What Next for Callsign Grizzly 1

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There are as yet unknown tribes in the deepest recesses of the Amazon basin who have heard that the A400 has taken its first flight today. The mainstream media, web channels and blogosphere have exploded with news of the maiden flight in Seville this afternoon, callsign Grizzly 1.

MSN001 completed a longer than expected flight and Airbus reported all system performed as expected. Analysis of test data will be carried out before the net series of flights. Other aircraft will join the test programme over the next months and years as the aircraft strives for service. The first deliveries will be to France and these first aircraft may not be capable of the full spectrum of flight operations.

Read more…

A400 Engine Test Video

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Enjoy!

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A400 – Predictions

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As the first flight looms ever nearer and the deadline for a governmental decision on its future comes into sharp focus over the same period, what next for the A400.

It’s fun to predict the future because one is rarely completely correct so here is our Mystic Meg…

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First Flights

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It has been rather a busy period for first flights.

On the 12th of November the Agusta Westland AW159 lynx Wildcat took it’s first flight at the company’s Yeovil site. The type will enter service in 2014/2015 with the Army (34) and Royal Navy (28)

Read more…

Good News for the A400

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The much anticipated decision on the future of the A400 seems to have come and gone, overshadowed by events in Afghanistan.

The partner nations have decided to proceed, perhaps through gritted teeth. Talks will now take place, concluding sometime towards the end of the year, that will seek to agree a revised set of commercial and technical terms. A dose of realism had descended on the programme, it could not continue in its existing fixed price form, EADS would have been seriously damaged, perhaps irreversibly. With so many European jobs at stake this was never going to happen, especially in the current economic climate.

We should not lose sight of the very real fact that many of the issues have been caused by Airbus Military and EADS. A pragmatic approach must provide for some profit from the programme, perhaps even some slippage on some technical issues but these must come with some hard conditions such a fixed and revised delivery schedule that they must meet, some means of limiting excess profit (harder to achieve in practice) or even a greater share of profit on any future sales.

The implications for the partner nations with suffering air transport capabilities combined with operations in Afghanistan and elsewhere should be made abundantly plain to Airbus Military. This is not an academic issue.

The renegotiation of a fixed price contract, i.e. it is not fixed, will have serious implications for defence procurement in the medium and long term, if Airbus can so easily break the contract with a minimum of penalty the cry from others will be ‘why not us’

The negotiations must not result in a free ride for Airbus and not only have serious hard edges but be seen to have them as well.

Takes Your Bets…

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Decision time approaches for launch customers of the A400.

Cancel, reduce numbers or stay with the programme.

Domingo Ureña-Raso, the recently appointed Head of Airbus Military is an professional engineer with a strong reputation, recently outlined so of the issues surrounding the troubled A400 programme and how he intends to get it back on course. The original contract was optimistic to say the least, Airbus had no military experience, there was a shortage of engineers and a number of other structural factors all conspired to bring us to where we are now, over budget and late.

Read more…

Are we the only people that like the A400m?

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Let’s be frank, the A400 military airlifter programme is in trouble, problems with the engines, flight control software and weight issues mean that it is going to be late, likely to cost more and not as good as expected.

Read more…

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About Think Defence

Think Defence is the collected ramblings of a few people that wish defence to go much higher up the UK national agenda, recognising that the answer is not always more money but better spending. Although focused on UK issues, anything we find interesting will find its way in. We operate a fairly open door policy and encourage guest contributors, if you want to say something just contact us or leave a comment. This will result in blog entries that disagree with each other but that it fine, debate is good. Where we are incorrect (and it will happen, probably a lot) just let us know, review and correction strengthen the quality of posts. Finally, it's just a blog, so don't take it too seriously!

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