This is a long and mostly boring video but skip forward to 20:20
This is what he said;
And in terms of the Maldives or the Falklands, whatever your preferred term, our position on this is that we are going to remain neutral. We have good relations with both Argentina and Great Britain, and we are looking forward to them being able to continue to dialogue on this issue. But this is not something that we typically intervene in
Putting aside the Maldives mistake and the predictability of the right wing backlash from the US and UK should we expect something more than fence sitting from our principle ally?
Without conflating Afghanistan and Iraq, conflicts in which we supported the US but had clear national interest (arguably I guess) could we count on the US to come off the fence if things get hotter at some point in the future?
Have a read of this link that describes Argentine/Brazilian defence cooperation and mentions specific programmes.
The govt-controlled media here (Arg.) never tire of ranting about Yank perfidy on this matter, if that’s any comfort. As long as the Arg. govt doesn’t buy the kit necessary to make things difficult for you lot down south then the Yank “nuetrality” really doesn’t matter. Any strong pro-Brit statement from BO would only inflame feeling “al pedo”, as we say here, i.e. to no good purpose.
As long as we retain the ability to “look after” the Falklands without the possibility of needing direct help from anyone else then it doesn’t matter one jot what the US thinks. Hang on a minute… Oh shit…
Yes, you should expect more, what next, Mexico would like California back, after all that happened after the UK took over the Falklands.
The US should stand on the principle of self determination.
Should they? Wouldn’t that be stupid?
The principle of self determination would probably mean that Texas and South California become Mexican after a while…
Didn’t the US fight a civil war in the mid 1800′s to deny the Confederates their right to self-determination?
To be honest, it doesn’t matter a whole lot what the President actually says. I’d imagine behind the scenes the US would offer intelligence support and any other basic support we requested, as long as it was kept quiet and didn’t involve anything too major.
Then maybe next time when they ask for a brigade, the UK should offer them a phone number book compiled by MI6 instead, discreetly?
There was a time when ridiculing the Brits for their naive and one-way ‘special relationship’ was an invitation for a shitstorm. Those times have faded away during the past two years.
amazing TD.
i brought up many of these same issues and was LAUGHED off these pages and now only now do you all realize the seriousness of the issue.
amazing!
but the sets are in place. they’ve already nationalized the Spainish oil company … not only do they have Brazil on their side but they also have many other S. American country’s too.
but perhaps most disturbing is that in the past, the UK was able to handle this by itself..more importantly the future was suppose to be that the UK would look to its EU partners.
the question that really should be asked is where is the rest of the EU on this subject but that hits a little too close to home and its easier to bash the US.
but lets look at recent history. in reality you should be asking where is France on this issue.
but again, you won’t ask that, because it hits too close to home.
i love the UK but damn you guys have really set about wrecking your own defense structure all in preference for the welfare state. you’ve tried to cover it up with “jointness” but the end result is a still weaker defense stance.
and S.O. can rattle all he wants but Germany is a non-player. they’re hated by the rest of the EU and will soon be as irrelevant on the continent as they are in the rest of the world.
Solomon, if that was what you thought you need to re-read your posts and the main article above.
Your take was that a military invasion is possible and would be successful, this article is about US fence sitting. Totally different topics.
@ solomon i think it less of hitting too close to home, more a case of we know what the eu is like. So it’s no real insight to look at their lack of interest, it’s a given. The us less so, right or wrong, plenty here expect more of them.
The US were neutral in 1982. That didn’t stop them providing fuel tankers, satellite intel and offering to loan us Enterprise (although I guess it would never have really happened).
I expect to be able to walk the streets safely, and expect to find trouble if I walk to the shops at night.
By expect do you mean, moral entitlement or prediction?
Sending “Our Brave Boys” TM to be blown up in the sands of Iraq and Afghanistan doesnt win influence.
There, I’ve said it.
It just doesnt
Not Iraqs government, not Afghanistans, and not the United States.
Simon
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Strait_Crisis_of_1996#U.S._military_response
China threatend Taiwan
The US parked a full carrier battle group in front of Chinas invasion force, sat two more out in the deep sea and said “come and have a go if you think your hard enough”.
We suffered over 1000 casualties and lost seven ships, with three supoporting battlegroups, I think our losses would have been a bit lighter.
That last post went totally over my head. How does that relate to US-Argentina relationships?
… where did the 1000 casualties come from? I remember the fall of the Berlin Wall and the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1996, but I sure don’t recall any shooting war with the US and China then.
@ dom j it’s not my view just what i think others expect.
“and S.O. can rattle all he wants but Germany is a non-player. they’re hated by the rest of the EU and will soon be as irrelevant on the continent as they are in the rest of the world.”
You must live in the 50′s or something. Hint: It’s not the U.S. that wins popularity contests in global popularity polls. Others do. Literally.
About influence; again, don’t confuse scarcity of embarrassing episodes of entanglement with lack of influence. Germany’s influence works through international cooperation much more than an American right-winger can understand.
It was utterly naive to believe that there could be an informal tit-for-tat relationship with the USA.
The USA doesn’t even respect its formal commitments whenever it happens to dislike some such obligation.
That’s when the redneck right-wingers charge and assert that the USS don’t need to honour signatures and ratifications.
Right the next day, the same radicals hammer on some small foreign country for merely being able to violate one such obligation.
Finally, do you really think I represent my country or am somehow the same? I could be a citizen of Luxembourg and my words would have exactly the same weight and meaning.
“The US were neutral in 1982. That didn’t stop them providing fuel tankers, satellite intel and offering to loan us Enterprise (although I guess it would never have really happened).”
Don’t forget the supply of Stinger MANPADS that magically appeared out of nowhere…
It should be remembered that many in Reagan’s White House would have let the Argentines have their way.
We are less important to them now the Cold War is over.
There is a worrying meme that has a hold of the collective Western leadership in that it cannot do enough to accelerate our collective decline. Making it a self fulfilling prophecy if you will.
I am glad to see somebody has mentioned California. At the moment Barry’s Whitehouse is ignoring the fact that the southern US border is on the brink of war. I think by the time Barry leaves office in 2016/17 I think FX will probably be showing a programme called “She wore a Yellow Ribbon” about the trials and tribulations of US Cavalry unit patrolling the Southern DMZ. And without sounding too Daily Fail like in the same time frame I won’t be surprised if there has been a real upswing in communal violence here in Europe. China hasn’t got to fight the West; the Left and unfettered immigration from the Third World is doing the hard yards for them.
http://conservativeoutpost.com/files/u3/Not_Yours.jpg
@ Sol
Are you gunning up matey just in case Barry wins? Some extra hi-capacity mags for your Glock? Or how about a real handgun something like a Ruger GP100 or S&W Mod 686+ ? It is relevant. I think there is more to this sudden upswing in gun ownership in the US than simply concealed carry becoming fashionable or the popularity of first person shooter video games.
Observer said “where did the 1000 casualties come from?”
He meant the Falklands. I think he was saying if the US had sent a CBG south to support the war would have been a lot shorter.
If the US has no firm views on British overseas territories, then perhaps we should refuse the US an extended lease on Diego Garcia, Cherry Garcia, whatever your preferred term.
x.
upgunning? i’m just rotating my stocks of ammo! i have a glock 26, 19 and 17…two AR-15′s…three AK-47′s…a mossberg 500 and a remington 870. i have four 33 round mags for the glocks along with 5 mags per gun. for my AR-15′s i’ve lost count of the mags (i have a trunk full) and 500 rounds of 12 guage 00 buck. 500 rounds of 12 gauge slugs and so many rounds of AK and AR ammo that it boggles the mind.
so yeah i’m ready.
S.O.
you’re a joke buddy. you pop in, spout your green police nonsense and think you’re winning arguments. your arrogance is off putting and i sense a female air to your bearing.
to all.
the special relationship between the US and the UK has always been on the back of us being equals. Taiwan is a protectorate. in deed if not in law. if our relationship is to change to the US being forced to consider the UK a protectorate then thats fine but you can kiss the special relationship good bye. the troubles that you see in relations now are the result of one administration. but by the remarks of some here, i see further trouble ahead…especially if the UK is downgraded to another one of those countries that needs us more than we need them.
@ Sol
All that and not one real gun…..
I see you don’t need the Kel-Tec Sub-2000 I suggested you get even though you do have those big Glock mags.
@X.
I just can’t warm up to Kel-Tec. i was real hot to get one of those handguns chambered in the 22 mag holding 30 rounds but they couldn’t get them to market. i am looking at one of those pocket Kel-Tec’s though. i love my concealed carry license (eat your heart out Brits…i can carry my handgun lawfully in 44 of the 50 states and the states where i can’t i wouldn’t want to go to anyway!).
uh you do know that our European friends are looking at us like we’re some raging cave men right now don’t you?
for my European friends check out this link…
http://www.cabelas.com/2012-tactical-gear-intro-1.shtml
Cabelas is a sporting goods store and the tactical craze is so strong now that they have an entire section outfitted just to take care of guys like me and X who need extra magazines for our firearms…plate carriers, helmets etc….
ain’t America grand? no rioters on my block!
Really, ad hominem in two steps already? You’re still going to fights with an empty magazine, Solomon. Too bad for you that the one in the chamber is always a dud.
You know, facts carry some weight with other people. They don’t simply switch to ad hominem once someone picked their BS apart without lifting a 2nd finger.
You’re living in a fantasy world if you think of UK/US special relationship as being among equals or anyhow balanced, if you think that Germany is “hated” in Europe or that it’s us who are about to lose influence.
I haven’t heard or read the phrase “leader of the free world” associated with recent US presidents in almost a decade. This phrase was commonplace during the 80s and 90s.
Finally, you’re living in fantasyland if you believe that a single European country needs the USA more than the USA needs it. The USA has been exporting troubles and only troubles for about 12 years. It’s about the most useless ally around; a troublemaker who pulls you down into troubles and provides no non-imaginary benefits.
Americans have a hard time understanding it, but Europe is safe without a single US soldier or US nuke. The only realistic threat to us are the USA, that’s why we’re allied.
you didn’t pick a thing apart. Germany is hated in the EU. many countries in that union believe that Germany is simply banking off their pain, twisting the treaty to favor German industry etc….
additionally Germany as a regional or super power is a joke. your soldiers are substandard and even your KSK only matches the skill set of experienced Soldier or Marines…not even special ops. i’ve seen them up close and Poland, Italy the UK and others are far more capable.
but lets talk about fantasy worlds
if you think that Europe doesn’t need the US then take a look at the Libyan operation. the US didn’t want to go but the EU dragged us in. was it successful? only by the skin of its teeth. lets not even talk about a Syrian intervention.
long story short, the EU in general and Germany in particular are living a utopian fantasy subsidized by the US through our defense spending. if we would simply pull all our troops out of Europe you wouldn’t hear one complaint from US citizens…but you would hear wailing and nashing of teeth from many European countries.
you can talk shit all you want but your left leaning ideas only work in dope smoking areas…not in the real world.
Another fantasy: Europe needs to intervene in Libya. We didn’t need to, and many of us didn’t. It was a mere luxury adventure of some European governments.
About soldiers; for one, that’s relative. Russians suck even more. Second, you certainly wouldn’t believe the low opinion German troops have of their US allies’ skills.
US “defense” spending subsidising us? How? Who would attack us otherwise? The Arabs with no navy to speak of across the Med? The Russians with their rotten and rusty forces? Aliens from mars?
As I said, the only military threat to us to speak of is the US. That’s why we’re allied (= smarter than arms racing).
About the hate that’s in your fantasy (how telling!):
Feel free to look up actual studies on the topic of Germany’s reputation. We beat the US hands down, and did so for many years. Germany has enjoyed several years of a reputation high now. Your fantasy is very distant from reality.
http://tinyurl.com/3zpk95z
2011: “Germany was again the most positively viewed nation, with 62 per cent rating its influence as positive (up 3 points).”
Yeah, I know. I insist on annoying facts when all you want is to live in fantasyland and see the likes of me crushed under your feet.
@ Solomon,
different topic, on concealed carry
(I have spent about 3 years total in the US in the last ten, but on multiple separate visits for work purposes, spread around Texas, Nevada, Arizona, Virginia, and shorter hops in and out of DC, Florida, Kentucky and Kansas).
I understand many states have these concealed carry laws. What do you need to do / prove to get such a license, and once you have one, is it normal and routine to actually carry a handgun under your shirt when you go to Starbucks or Home Depot or the library or even to work on your normal day to day business? How many people in day to day life are actually walking around with a concealed weapon?
I recall once driving from Plano Texas to Greenville Texas – about 50 miles, some along the Dallas ring road. There was an unreasonably large pickup truck in front, driving erratically but slowly. I hooted when it pulled into my lane in front of me, then pulled out to overtake. The driver looked at me as I went passed, and showed a large handgun and smiled. I sped up and got out of the area. Is it normal for this sort of thing to happen?
Ouch. Nationalism rears it’s ugly head.
Chill guys, or I’ll dig out my pseudo-Chinese imitation and go “China rulez the world!!”
@solomon
I really like firearms, but I’m also a big fan of my government’s approach to gun crime.
Use of a loaded firearm in a crime, even if it’s simply threatening others like what happened to James = automatic death penalty.
Saves a lot of crap from happening.
Is it the stance of the US which is fence sitting, or does it relate more to Obama’s own personality?
I’ve read summaries of recent books on the administration which suggest he’s incapable of making quick decisions and in cabinet acts more like a chairman moderating between both sides of whatever debate is underway.
@ Sol
I have no European friends I am British. They took our handguns off us. No .357 GP100 goodness for me any more. I grew up in a house where firearms are normal. And I have long time interest in “security” and citizen soldiery so I do follow events in the US. BTW I have now watched a few reviews of the new S&W it is probably more your sort of gun than the PF9…..
While we are discussing Texas I was surprised to find out the other day open-carry is illegal. I am amazed how different Arizona and Texas are for two states that share so many characteristics.
@ Observer
I thought in Singapore you got the death penalty for everything from dropping litter up!!!!??? But heck I wish “here” was like Singapore.
Trouble is here in the West the political classes like to control the law abiding forgetting. Better to stop the local vicar owning a .22 pistol and claim to have done something about gun crime than do something about the whys and wherefores of kids on inner city estates wanting to obtain and use (illegal) guns. Better to outlaws guns for the law abiding to prevent an extremely small number of deaths per decade than tackle something like alcohol abuse that kills thousands each year.
Hi, Solomon. Libya was a NATO led operation, and was exactly the kind of intervention operation that the Americans had in mind as they sought to reform NATO after the cold war. The US has led the effort to keep NATO relevent now that there is little real external threat to the main European territorial block. The US sees NATO as vital to its own strategic interests and doesn’t want the European members drifting off.
As for Syria; I think that were the US focus of attention not tied up with Afghanistan, the US would be the ones pushing for a Syrian intervention. And I wouldn’t rule out American involvement in Syria just yet; if the UN, Turkey or another country gets drawn in first, the US could easily follow.
I should point out that 80% of US forces have withdrawn from Europe since the ’80s, without the wailing and gnashing of teeth from Europe’s nations that you suggest. Those that remain are hardly subsidizing Europes defence, and are staying put in order to support the US’ strategic objectives.
US forces in Europe are supporting the US led mission in Afghanistan, as well as other operations in the Central Command area, and AFRICOM too. The planned missile defence for the continental US relies in large part upon extensive American military facilities throughout Europe.
It’s also worth noting that despite the United States’ planning focus shifting further east, it is not the populous countries in the east -Indonesia, China and India- that are your allies in Afghanistan; the bulk of non-American forces in Afghanistan come from Europe. The US Army states that 38 NATO and non-NATO European countries (including the hated Germans) have provided forces to the US led operation since the start of the war.
Europe is very much important to the US, and will remain so for a long time yet. Doesn’t seem much to ask that Obama be a little more foward in his words of support for one of his country’s closest friends.
Solomon, for all the guns, do you have any witty one-liners? It’s all very well shooting someone, but can you do it with the style that a quick-witted cutting remark can provide?
There’s many a good man that has blown someone away only to think of the smart line they should have said a few hours later. Or worse still, becomming flusterred while shooting someone in the head and using “It’s just been revoked!” when that has no relevence to the situation in hand.
BB
“.
Europe is very much important to the US, and will remain so for a long time yet. Doesn’t seem much to ask that Obama be a little more foward in his words of support for one of his country’s closest friends.”
And he would be, if EUrope were as important as you have convinced yourself it is.
We arent essential to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq.
Most of Europe wont go anywhere there might be shooting, and we turn up without fuel, food and ammunition and immediatly start begging from the nearest american base.
I always laugh at people who own military grade weapons… I mean offensive ones meant for war fighting, not hunting or a pistol to nab a rioter/home invasion. Different mentality though so I put up with it; Sol is obviously waiting for the south to rise again so he can knock them down, again…or for the Red Indians to reclaim their lands XP
Come on, enough of the kiddie talk about guns and rants… S.O et al, Sol; your rant about the german military and S.O. is uncalled for, if you had served with them during the cold war; you’d not say that. Though I agree their governments strangeling of them operatioinally wise is a real problem.
The fence sitting occured in 1982…between arg. and uk I am pretty sure the latter is more interest to the US, despite what Sol says in his basement-bunker.
I am worried how argentina is going under their president; their treatment of a Spanish firm has really pis$ed off their main EU ally, then again, I cant see any aggression; they simply havent the means.
@ Mike
So are you saying that US/Latin American relations aren’t been shaped in anyway by the situation on the US/Meixan border? Are you aware of what’s happening on the US’s southern border?
@ Solomon – We got rid of hand guns after some one shot 16 kids in a school. Strangley enough it has never happended since. You guys seem to have one every other week. To my knowledge every one hass been a legally licenced gun owner. My view any one who wants to have a gun should be the last person to ever be given one.
@ SO – Germaany’s lack of military capability is not the issue its Germany’s insistance on austerity thats the probelm and it paranoia over inflation. Germany is the biggest benefiter from the Euro but complain’s the most about it. I fail to see how Germnay dominates the ECB the way it does but I don’t think it will continue. The German economic model is very broken and has been for a very long time its just taking the rest of Europe upto now to see it.
regarding US support the last thing we need is any one to poor any fuel on the fire. We don’t need US support and asking for it or complaing about the lack of it just makes us look week. Kirchner has commited the ultimate sin this week or nationalising a foreign company. Expect to see her an Argentina branded public enemy number one in the USA very soon. The Brazilians might be talking tough with Argentina but it just the ussual latin BS. Neither Argentina or Brazil have much of a capability to do anything either diplomatically, militarily or economically to us. Lets not foregt we are a net importer from both countries.
I will start getting worried the day Argentina actually takes deliver of a single weapon system built after 1980.
Looking at the title: “The Falklands and US Fence Sitting – Should We Really Expect More”
The answer is a resounding no. They are an independent sovereign nation, why should they give a fat rat’s ass? If it was the other way around would we?
The problem with the UK is that we are a microcosm of Europe, our involement in the Asia – Pacific region is minimal, and yet we expect to be treated as equals along with the likes of China? Economically we are on the retreat but still talk as though we command an empire.
Some of the xenophobic comments above are laughable as well as well as naive. Commentators who give us concise, knowledgeable comments on one thread suddenly resort to cod-politics when ‘the special-relationship’ comes to the fore. I think its time for a reality check.
Interesting post TD, but I believe a question like, “”The Falklands and US Fence Sitting – What Can the UK do to Counter it and Improve Our Global Standing” may produce a more mature and coherent discussion.
The Argentines signed a defence deal with Brazil a few days back. One of the areas for co-operation will be an Exocet replacement.
By 2030 the US will be primarily a Spanish speaking state. Draw from that what you want.
“By 2030 the US will be primarily a Spanish speaking state. Draw from that what you want”
Hmmm, not sure about that one mate.
I think Obama calling the Falklands Islands the Maldives tells you everything you need to know about it. He doesn’t really give a shit, nor do many of his government I suspect.
It’s like Germany and football. For us, facing Germany is a major game, a major rivalry. Typically for them they would see Holland or Italy as being more of a “rival”.
To us the Falklands is a key issue. To the Americans it’s somewhere between filing next weeks reports and replacing the coffee machine at the White House.
I think we all know that behind the scenes the US would be more than willing to help.
THe Falklands are a key strategic location for access to Antarctica.
As long as the alliances are in place it probably doesn’t matter to the US if they belong to the UK or Argentina.
They are, however, mightily important.
Martin, by what measure is the German economic model broken? Lowest unemployment for 20 years, seem to be doing ok. Economy strong enough to prop up the Euro (though polls are now showing a majority want a return to the Mark).
In one way or another, the whole of the EU needs a kick up the arse, but Germany is hardly a basket case in comparison to the rest of us.
Dom, if you removed US EUCOM, and cooperation from all countries covered by EUCOM, Afghan ops would have ended four months ago when Pakistan closed their supply route. And non-US troops make up over a quarter of the coalition, with most of those from Europe. The US would be hard pressed to replace those if they all left tomorrow. Aside from the military aspect, Europe is the US’ most consistent supply of diplomatic support for its ops – providing essential political legitimacy to even the most dodgy foreign adventure. And as I mentioned, NATO and US missile defence facilities in Europe are key strategic interests for the US.
@ Chris B
I agree the Falklands is less than an non-issue for Barry.
As for Spanish as the US first language I was just pointing out to the future.
Once I was laughed at here for saying one of the drivers for the Falklands War beyond the immediate concern of the islanders’ “safety” was to stop the Soviets gaining access to the islands’ harbours and anchorages.
“was to stop the Soviets gaining access to the islands’ harbours and anchorages.”
Like the US would have stood for that.
yes bb, of course, your right, its america thats wrong….
@ Phil
Well they wouldn’t have started WW3 over it. They couldn’t stop Soviet ships coming and going out of North Vietnam when a significant chunk of their navy parked just off the coast. If the Argentines had won the islands they wouldn’t have been the most open piece of geography so no prying eyes. And don’t forget they would have become Argentine sovereign territory. As has been demonstrated by European nations over the years sometimes even the US is stopped by states exercising their sovereignty. Back in the early 80s those extreme southern climes weren’t under the same level of satellite surveillance. The Argentines would have been on a sticky wicket asking for help to stop them; that is if they wanted to have stopped them. The Soviets have a huge variety of government ships at sea that weren’t conventional navy ships as such. Slipping into one of the more remote Falklands harbours to avoid a storm in the SA or for a week or two repairs. All very possible.
@ X
Demographic projections for the US put the Hispanic population at perhaps 30-35% by 2050. That’s a reasonable estimate I think. By that point Mexico’s economy should have progressed a little and the emmigration rate to the US should have come down.
@martin:
The German economic model is not what’s usually called “broken”. It’s in need of reform, but not “broken” such as the rather de-industrialised English economic model.
Sometime around 1990 a historian remarked that West Germany had been as much Germany as NATO could bear and East Germany had been as much Germany as the WP could bear.
It appears that the united Germany is more than the EU can bear.
That’s a tragic development, but one that points not only at economic zeal in Germany, but also at serious homemade economic problems in the rest of the EU.