El Presidente is talking nonsense again, the latest claim is that the UK is escalating the tense situation in the South Atlantic by moving nuclear missile armed submarines into the area and because as a matter of routine we simply do not comment on the whereabouts of our Vanguard submarines she has taken this to be the veritable smoking gun, some sort of proof.
She even claims to have ‘evidence’ and intelligence.
We all know this is complete and utter penguin poop but if we did want to menace Buenos Aries with Trident we would only have to sail one of the Vanguard submarines about 20 yards outside HMNB Clyde
They do say a picture says a thousand words
Trident D5 Missile range (approximate)
What we should of course do is just laugh at the sheer absurdity of Argentina’s increasingly shrill and nonsensical claims and let El Presidente get on closing newspapers and dealing with the problems (various) of a domestic nature because as is well known by anyone with a brain, they are the issues that are driving the ridiculous dog toffee.
@TD: she may be a mad old bat, but that’s the point. A similar Galteri was every bit as desperate, but rather saner. She’s more dangerous
One of things I hope will happen with China’s and India’s growing influence is that the UN fails.
Told you we’d nuke them!
There are quite a few countries that support Argentina’s territorial claim in principle, but I’m pretty sure many of those countries’ politicians and diplomats think that she’s as ridiculous as we think she is.
I’m increasingly convinced that her speech writer is an SIS stooge.
Well, it’s been quiet around that “other” El Presidente (Chavez of Venezuela), and it’s a good thing Argentina is filling the gap. After all, South America without a bellicose and especial vocal “West Basher” just isn’t the same.
To be fair, they are probably assessing “the British” as a nation based upon the contestants we send to Argentina for ‘Total Wipeout’ and therefore think we are a nation of unfit egotistical narcissists who can be defeated with some foam and/or pneumatic boxing-gloves.
I think the BBC should refuse to film any more series of ‘Total Wipeout’ *or* threaten to send Richard Hammond there for real. That’ll teach ‘em…
I agree with WF, the ‘Botox Eva Peron’, as her own national newspapers have called her, is dangerous. She’s intelligent and very politically shrewd, remember how she hoodwinked the U.S when Hillary Clinton dropped in not long since. We shouldn’t underestimate her political or military ambitions, I believe the time to become really concerned is when she goes quiet on the issue.
given the 1500 mile minimum range of trident you’d think that unfriendly nations would positively lobby HMG to offer their territorial waters as patrol space for the Vanguard class!
I have to say I am increasingly alarmed with the reteric from Argentina. What really concerns me is I have little faith in the present government to stand there ground on the issue if sufficent pressure is leveled against them at the UN. I think we need to go on the diplomatic offensive in latin America dn try and split Brazil and Uruguay away from the Agrentine position. From recent reports from FI the sanctions seem to be biting. Its a terrible thing for our citizens to be put under sanctions for doing nothing more than exisiting. Time to put a bit of real weight to bare.
I think another thing to note is while we all understand this to be bollocks i.e an SSn is not an SSBN joe blogs public does not. The Argentines are going for headlines and getting them.
@ Martin
You have to manage your doubt and that is hard isn’t it? Dave may be have been a let down but certainly isn’t Blair. The UNSC is the key to this. China is hobbled because of Tibet and Taiwan; it might sound contrary but supporting Argentina would draw (more) attention to them and be counter productive. Russia is hobbled because of various territorial disputes on its borders for similar reason; what you do at home and what you do in public are separate things! France has little islands everywhere. The US under Barry might not care about the UK, but their diplomatic game is a bit more long term; don’t forget neither the Pentagon or Langley stand for election every 4 years. If I were F&CO I would concentrate on the US, France, Germany, Caribbean states, and perhaps Brazil clandestinely.
Well, you can always send one for real, and publish the fact.
Something along the lines of:
“If the Argentinians want to accuse us of sending nukes there, we might as well do it for real.”
Just send the nukes and keep the boat at home…..
@x
lol
Hard to get the nuke back if you don’t need to use it. Or maybe you can just park an empty one without a warhead on their presidential palace’s front yard.
Hi, x. “China is hobbled because of Tibet and Taiwan”.
In December, Chinese Presidential envoy, Jiang Shusheng said during a visit to Buenos Aires “solidarity with Argentina in the Malvinas issue is an invariable position of China’s foreign policy”. Argentina gives reciprocal support to China’s territorial claim against Taiwan. The Chinese position at the UN is supportive of Argentina’s claim, but that the dispute should be resolved by peaceful negotiation.
Russia doesn’t seem overly concerned with the Islands, but can always be expected to use any issue to make a point on some other area of interest.
@ Brian B
Yes I knew about the visit to BA by the Chinese. You have to understand is that China is very flexible in its diplomacy. If Argentina and Chile were still arguing over the Beagle Channel the Chinese ambassadors in Santiago and BA would be assuring their host governments of the Middle Kingdom’s unwavering support for their position. Why do you think Third World governments like the Chinese so much? Not only do they get shed loads of cash but they are flattered too. When China is in the UNSC it has to play a different game. As for Russia well she wants others to like for reasons other than her money. The US and EU are a bit stand offish and prickly. Beijing treats Moscow like the backward cousin from the country. It is a game of trade offs.
A bit of a non-story realy, as TD puts out, it can be parked pretty much anywhere and still clout them… but of course, there’s no question of us even ‘using them’ – there are a few argentines out there who think we’d use them if we lost in ’82…utter bs.
Oh, and the media there is de-facto state controlled, so you would be getting this gaff alright.
@Mike
Might want to get Phil’s opinion on that.
Anyway, what’s more interesting is why would they want to put this out. Pressure to remove any real subs near there before a strike? Opportunistic PR black eye? Caucus Beli? Loss of credibility attack before sudden World Court mediation request?
How will they play their next hand I wonder…
They’ll continue to make noise. Kick up a stink. Try and provoke an escalation and then whine some more.
The best strategy is to review the plans, exercise discreetly, keep an eye on them, and otherwise just ignore them in the military context. In the diplomatic context continue as normal.
Simple really.
You forgot military alternate plan number 1:
Kick their ass if they try anything physically funny.
Honestly though, there is no way in hell that the UK is going to release the Falklands nor any way to make Argentina’s claims to them anyway legitimate. And I’m really hoping the S.Americans are smart enough to know they really don’t want a “Middle East” situation right on their doorstep.
Brian B, re: the Russian attitude to the FI. I remember reading an article by a former diplomat, who recalled having a ‘terse’ conversation with his Russian opposite number at the time of the Falklands conflict, a Russian Bear had been ‘escorted’ away from the task force as it journeted south. The Russian was giving the usual complaint about the interception, however, as the the diplomatic protestations came to an end, he winked and said, “I hope you drive those bastards into the sea.”
For the Russians, I feel its more about international prestige, I believe, despite what they say in public. We’d get more respect off them (and China) if we stood our ground. If we fought them again and won, I don’t think China would give a fat rats either way apart from possible oil and fish related deals after the conflict. I believe that’s where their real interests lie.
As for Signor Timerman and his comments on the UK trying to ‘militarise’ the Falkland Islands, he should remember that following his armed forces attempts to turn swathes of the Islands into minefields, in this sense the UK has been trying to ‘de-militarise’ the islands for the best part of thirty years.
regarding russia.
Last time it was anti communist thatcher against anti communist galiteri.
Win win for the ivans.
Next time,
There was something of a schizophrenic relationship between the Soviets and the Argentinian junta back then. The USSR was a significant trading partner, and to some extent they were international allies; however, Argentina’s was a right-wing regime on the slide, and one of the pressures they faced was from the communist movement at home. So while the Argentinians could deal with the Soviets, they were also very suspicious of them and their commie intentions and activities in South America.
None of this matters anyway. The UN decolonization committee has heard the arguments and made statements for years, and the UK doesn’t even bother dealing with it. As for the council, if there were ever a possibility of the Argentinians getting any kind of resolution off the back of waffle about nuclear weapons, then we’d just veto whatever we didn’t like anyway.
The more hysterical the Argentinian’s protests, the more counterproductive it must be. I can’t believe their current approach will be changing anyone’s mind in their favour, more likely will only increasingly tire their saner neighbours.
I just hope to god we do have a sub down there. An SSN would obvioulsy be the most capable solution and with no one knowing if its there we cannot be accused of escelating anything. However I still lack faith in Dave and the boys to have actually sent anything other than some rummors put around. Would it not be great to catch The Argentines in a 1982 style Amphibious operation with a modern SSN on station. Although I doubt Dave has the man parts to actually let if fire even if it was invading the island’s
lol if anyone seriously thought we’d use them just because we can get those islands back, those people are dangerous.
I am pretty damn sure we have an SSN down there, regardless of the louder rusty sabre rattling atm I thought it was common practise to send a sub down there, not specifically around the islands, but down south.
I think (looking at the wording from some quotes from their ministers) they are more annoyed at the potential of nuclear boats in an area that agreed never to explore such technology, not ICBM’s. Remember the stink caused about which ship had Nuclear Depth-Charges at what time… but if thats annoying them…its been the case for 30 odd years of having nuclear powered subs down there…a painful fact they learnt in ’82.
I think the biggest threat at this moment is them closing off airspace; the air link to Chilie.
Just to add on to my post re the air link.
Its interesting how, depsite all the noise from Kirchiner and co., they havent done that… perhaps the next hand they’ll play?
Could they? With Roland SAM and Mirage III/A4-AR?
I think Chilie may have a hand in it remaining open.
The biggest threat is that putting together a “Peace Flotilla”, filling it with over 5,000 ardent nationalists (read tooled up nut jobs), beaching the ships on Stanley’s sea front, the nationalists then “occupying” Stanley, and all done in front of South American media.
I would love to know how many Paveways the Typhoons could carry. Even if they got 4 in the air carrying 4 bombs plus designator I don’t think it is enough to push anybody off the beach if they did land. Can the Typhoons drop Paveway on ships? Have the Typhoons practised skipping bombs into ships? No. Does the Mauser cannon out range many MANPADS?
SSN aside the T45 doesn’t over match the Meko’s by much. In fact the Meko does quite literally out gun T45. I don’t think RN gunnery systems are that far in advance of the Meko’s 5in and its support system. And if it came to Cod War argy bargy the Meko has 2 twin 40mms on each beam. If I were the Argentines I would start patrolling 13 miles out from Stanley Airfield and dare the RN to come and shift us.
Ignore me. I am jumpy.
Oh look Aspide out ranges Sea Skua.
Has Aster been tried against a surface target yet?
X,
you’re going to the other end of the spectrum than my previous musings on an SF coup de main op to close down MPA, but you make essentially the same point. Whether it’s ninjas off a submarine or latino hippies coming ashore mob-handed with flowers, passports and media crews, the Argentines have got a range of options open that are distinctly unconventional.
Now, how quickly could we react to a love-bombing in full media glare? Would our own ROE be robust enough, and even more pertinently, could the Whitehall machine react in enough time?
The majority would be peaceful but they would be a shield for agitators. You’ve been across the water you know how events can be driven. That is why I picked 5,000 bods; it would just swamp the place. And that would be 5000 adults.
The more I think about it the easier it all becomes. And the only advantage we have is one SSN. And when we are down to 7 boats well game over.
And if these thoughts are occurring to a bear with very limit brain like me they must be occurring to those devious f*cks in BA. Another thing I learnt from reading about the FIW is that South Americans are crafty sods…..
Can we get Sean Penn extradited on terror charges? Just wonderin’……
If they want to let civilians land there, surely our line-to-take is “we welcome this unmistakable commitment to the normal status of the Falklands and to open trade and travel between them and the rest of South America. Argentine citizens are welcome to visit the islands. P.S. try the fish”?
We don’t, actually, object to people coming and going between the islands and Argentina. In fact, it took a lot of diplomatic effort to get them to accept that you could do just that. If someone wants to sit in the rain on the quayside, well, any fool can be uncomfortable.
Politically, it would be great to draw attention to the fact that the kelpers exist and are normal human beings with their own interests and opinions. Also to the fact that there is no Berlin wall around the islands. And further, to the fact that the Argentine side has never made any effort to convince them (well, except for those TV sets, but to be honest that was a bit shit).
There is visiting the islands and then there is a mass trespass!
This is what I am saying we can’t similar see it as their military vs our military. We have to think outside the box. Perceptions over come facts.
I don’t think Argentina shooting down the air link is being considered as a likely event, Mike. Rather, Argentina may ramp up the diplomatic pressure on Chile to end the link, though Chile so far denies any such Argentine approach.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/timstanley/100137521/sean-penn-should-return-his-malibu-estate-to-the-mexicans/
@x
Unconventional tactics? Easy.
Customs can be so slow at times…
Hot out here in the sun ain’t it….
Oops, sorry, dropped your passport into the ocean, can’t let you in without one. Sorry, my fault, I’ll get the Argentinian embassy to reissue one to you free of charge… in 2 weeks…
Damn I’m absent minded today, where did I leave that whole truckload of passports?
@Mike
The air link involves 2 countries. If Argentina used force to shut it down, yes, it’s a strike against the Falklands, but on the reverse side, it’s also a slap in the face to Chille, whom the Argentinians need on their side, at least diplomatically.
So I don’t think they’ll touch the airlink, too much chance of it being seen as regional aggression instead of against a single territory.
Observer,
So you’re suggesting John Cleese’s old bit “How To Irritate People” is an unconventional warfare manual? I believe it.
James,
As you probably know already what you just described is the Green March, Morocco’s 1975 demo against Spanish control in what’s now Western Sahara (didn’t know the hornet’s nest they were about to inherit.) Come in peace and let demographics (there’s more of us than there are of you, and you weren’t here first) work for you. Of course the second bit actually doesn’t work that well in the Falklands (in keeping with blog best practice, hereafter the acronym for their Think Defence designation TITSNBN — mind out of the gutter, x.) The kelpers have been there longer than any other population. And most of the actual locals at that end of Argentina were systematically killed in the southward expansion of Argentina’s veddy veddy European majority. Even an old lefty like my has an awfully hard time with Argentines, of all people in Latin America, banging on about indigenous claims and local property rights. Just as, beyond pure and genuine patriotism, even young as I was then (and we’re talking puberty) I was dead chuffed to see Galtieri’s thugs get their goolies handed to them.
x and James both,
Unconventional approaches — “asymmetrical” ops for really reals — is precisely what to worry about. I’m quite sure that, if not Call Me Dave himself, there are elements of the current coalition (plenty of them blue, not just mustard-coloured) who would be rid of TITSNBN so long as they’ve got shares in whatever American company subcontracted through B.A. to drill there. Grand excuse to slash the defence budget further across the services. Especially since they can’t see further than the Square Mile and its major investors. Just to sound like a tweed-encrusted country Tory for a moment (and may they triumph over the neoliberal weasels in the end) the nation, thank God, does still seem to think differently.
x,
Ref T45 and its deployment: yet another opportunity to blame (rightly) two besetting sins of British defence management. One of them the self-convinced righteousness of Admiralty planners who keep divvying up the operational roles of ships like a pre-automated factory floor or country house, as though they still had many dozens if not hundreds of hulls in the water (e.g. why the hell T45′s nice big hull wasn’t a reason to build an “all-rounder” surface combatant with high-end sonar as well as AAW from the very start, so that you don’t have to penny-packet scarce SSNs to prevent generation-old diesel electrics of a cranky local regime taking your brilliant new ship and about two hundred very good souls and killing the lot on whim.) The other’s Treasury bean-counting, e.g. why the Harpoon sets from the newly decommissioned T22 Batch 3s haven’t been shifted right on to the available T45s (it’s only four 2×4, but you’re not likely to have more than four of the six T45s at sea simultaneously, whatever brave words we hear about crew shifts and personnel management.)
BB,
I’ve heard much the same thing, from decently connected (and now retired) folk with FCO and the American State Department, about the Soviet outlook on the last go-round. Good story.
@ Jackstaff re T45
I have been told in no uncertain terms by serving RN personage who comments here that I know nothing about the in’s and out’s of escort design so I am not commenting. All I will say is that at least unlike the Germans, Italian, French, Dutch, Norwegian, Danish, and Spanish governments I don’t actually waste money on actually building AAW escorts (note I didn’t use the term frigate or destroyer) that have proper sonars, new generation CIWS, can actually operate their nation’s large maritime helicopter, have SSM, etc. etc.
x,
Cheek
just as with convoys, carriers, CIWS, and carrying more than one AA missile type aboard the same ship (to be fair the first go at that was Type 43, KBN — Killed By Nott) I’m afraid the changing contexts of reality will alter that, in not too much time and hopefully without too many lives lost. The pre-automated factory floor and the country house (and hey, what with Downton Abbey and all that, it’s topical 
were both meaningful and effective systems, to do what they were there to do and in their day. But then their day passed, or rather important conditions altered around them and they had to adapt, hide out of the slipstream, or perish. It’s been done before multiple times which is one of the RN’s great strengths. But it’s always been done “in spite of.” So at least we’re on form and schedule.
Just to return to a point on unconventional approaches, it’s probably worth silencing the overwrought professional grievers, and Argentina’s own pat nationalism, by pointing to their own 19th century. In other words, the fact that the “pacification of the pampas” made the American West look like a fecking garden party, and the Canadian Red River campaign like an actual orgy of inter-ethnic harmony. In that context, the Falklands and the kelpers look like a quite honourable exception to the “aim at the one in the yellow turban” school of Empire. A harmless anarchronism of honest citizens against a grandstanding, internally troubled regional power that refuses to come to terms with its own past? That’s a bit of the old judo, that is.
TD,
This seems like the perfect thread in which to say … I’m sure you are more than usually aware that the ISO code for the Falklands is FK. Do you think we could ginger-group some legislation to add “OFF” for containers that have to transit through Argentina?
@Jack
The islanders might get the wrong idea and think you were talking to them.
Observer,
Well, I was thinking maybe they could just graffiti it on containers headed for B.A. or La Plata …. Fair point, though.