Besides the world ending, what does 2012 look like for the MoD, it’s employees and suppliers?
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Besides the world ending, what does 2012 look like for the MoD, it’s employees and suppliers?
Make or break year. Will a new defence industrial strategy be pulled out of the current consultation period, will the reform of DE&S actually occur or will it be kicked into the long grass- will the Eurozone and socialist Cameron’s failure to reform the economy break the states ability to fund even the current paltry planned 2012 increases, will we get to hear the effect of the additional 2 years austerity recently announced on defence, will the DSG sale remain on schedule and actually happen, will the Anglo-French accord survive the coming storm or will it all collapse in recrimination, what will General Carter’s review come up with- etc, etc, etc….
In short, it means lots of nail biting and potentially a lot of pain.
Simple Question, your whole past SDSR can be summed up as ‘take your financial medicine now and things will be better in 2015′.
Given European meltdown, and coming US cuts or downgrading, what is the prospect of the UK recovering financially by 2015?
Good question AJ, I think the consensus is more of the same until way past 2015 and if the Euro goes tits up then all bets are off.
Personally, I think we are facing an accelerated drawdown from Afghanistan and yet further reductions
“Given European meltdown, and coming US cuts or downgrading, what is the prospect of the UK recovering financially by 2015?”
Bad
If we were actualy cutting (government spending is up not down) the odds would improve, somewhat.
TD
Yep the depressive in me, is pretty convinced that in about 6- 8 months time the govt is going to call off all bets and announce some general cuts from which defence will not be exempt.
I suspect the army will be in line for an equipment freeze, F35 delays;(poss long ones), in procurement, CVF (I Know I know, will either be further delayed/ cut back/ if not dropped).
There is no money at the moment for the current budget, if the euro goes then sorry but we will be down to
‘SA 2012 Stick pointy, soldier for the use of’
“‘SA 2012 Stick pointy, soldier for the use of’”
I love our equipment names.
if two extra years of austerity post 2015 (which means extra spending cuts), results in Defence’s 1% real-terms year on year increase being slashed then the SDSR does not work, and Lindley-French will be deeply disappointed (as will I):
“There is a very great danger that by default, if we hold our nerve, we could end up with quite a sound defence strategy. There will be two carriers, strategic mobility, Astutes-not enough, but in time you could build more over 20, 30 or 40 years-Type 45s and Type 26s. It is a concept whereby there is projectability, not globally but regionally-plus. We could actually have a defence strategy worth talking about, by muddling through and from the bottom up, which has nothing to do with the NSS or the SDSR. The issue is, can we hold our nerve over that longer investment period?”
http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201012/cmselect/cmdfence/uc761-vi/uc76101.htm
TD: Crystal Ball gazing, this early in December? Surely this is a sport for the long week between Crimbo and New Year!
A lot depends on the outcome of this “emergency meeting” that Cameron is going to with Sarkozy and Merkel. If he gets brain-washed into a new treaty that imposes financial strictures from Brussels, then we may as well hold our hands up. We would no longer be “Great Britain Plc.” but “EU Corp. – Royame-Uni department”.
Of couse, theoretically we get a referrendum out of this, except Cameron seems set to go against his own Bl**dy legislation and deny us one on this. If that turns out to be the case, what about a British Spring anyone?
2012 is likely to be a scary year.
In case anyone hasn’t noticed, we are already at war with Iran. Their nuclear test facility was clearly attacked, various nuclear scientists have been assassinated and let’s not forget the Stuxnet virus. Even before these events, Iran was sending weapons and explosives across the border into Afghanistan. If anyone doubts the seriousness of the situation, please read Con Coughlin’s analysis in the Telegraph. The question is how will things escalate?
China is building its military might in a way that is totally inconsistent with self-defence. It recently reminded its near neighbours that they were weak and it was strong.
Putin’s election victory has been mired in controversy with opposition politicians complaining of vote rigging, corruption and a failure of democracy. Even Gorbachev has chipped in to say the elections should be re-run. It doesn’t matter who is in charge, the Tsar, the Communists or Putin, Russia is still a totalitarian state. i wonder how far the present regime will go to hang on to power?
Meanwhile, the Arab Spring is continuing. Sooner or later, the situation will reach crisis point where a widespread uprising risks a humanitarian disaster. Will the UN be forced to step in? Will NATO allow itself to get embroiled in another Libya?
Then there are the other Gulf states that are absolute monarchies including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. Who knows where it will end.
We don’t need to look far beyond our own shores for potential trouble spots either. Could civil war break out in Greece. Might Turkey use a Greek exit from Europe to attack its old enemy?
There are many moving parts. I don’t think the world has been this unstable since 1939.
Well said, Monty. I agree with so many of your points.
And to think that it was only a few years ago that John Keegan, the then Defence Correspondent of the “Telegraph” wrote an article in which he put forward the view that the world was becoming a much more stable place!
Huh! That’s all I can say. Huh!
Further cuts are inevitable, the last CSR and next CSR spending profile for defence (1% “real terms” increase post 2015) was based on economic growth and government borrowing reductions which are now hopelessly optimistic (and have been admitted as being such by Osborne). The question is what is left that can be chopped.
Anyone who thinks the SDSR is still in effect is an idiot, it has been dead for months: troop reductions have already gone beyond the numbers in that document and General Carter is reviewing the Army structure.
Potential chopping targets; it is common knowledge that the relevent parties in DE&S and the RAF are avoiding all possible core budget spending on Tornado, its early retirement (once Typhoon has sufficient A2G capability) can not be ruled out. With France fighting for its AAA rating the death of Scavenger is also not inconceivable. Both FRES and Warrior are still vulnerable as is Type 26 without an international partner.
“Further cuts are inevitable, the last CSR and next CSR spending profile for defence was based on economic growth and government borrowing reductions which are now hopelessly optimistic. The question is what is left that can be chopped.”
If that is the case then the only thing left to chop is Britain’s Great Power ambitions because the SDSR will not be affordable.
And while some people might grumble about how that might not be a bad thing, and sneer at the phrase “punching above our weight” be in no doubt this is exactly what the politicians want HMF for, exactly what the SDSR was intended to provide, and exactly in line with the will of the British people as expressed in the recent Chatham House survey.
So, on a 2% defence budget?
Do people still want “balance”
i want sovereign and strategic power-projection that is acceptable to the people.
in having both maintaining both capability and will to use it HMG will have a tool capable of leveraging the political ends they desire.
in the absence of armoured divisions embarking transport in Calais that is all that matters.
This thread makes interesting reading!
“will the Anglo-French accord survive the coming storm or will it all collapse in recrimination”
- if not as for survive, all sorts of interventions, short of the immediate southern shores of the Med or crucial choke points of seaLOCs, are going to be beyond capability
RE ” spending profile for defence (1% “real terms” increase post 2015) was based on economic growth and government borrowing reductions which are now hopelessly optimistic (and have been admitted as being such by Osborne). The question is what is left that can be chopped”
- even that one % was smoke and mirrors as it only covers the £7bn , cumulatively, that is being and going to be spent on the SSBN before the first “laying of the keel”… this stuff used to be out of the MoD budget until not too long ago, so it is the normal accountants +/- = zero, while massaging the messages to the outside of the gvmnt machinery by talking about just the plusses
“what will General Carter’s review come up with”
- from the very short description, when he got the mandate, I am hopeful that the direction of travel is right (even with lesser manpower being perhaps a result)
To be grand strategic about it, the foundation of military power has to be economic and the UK economy is a joke; the state spends 50% of GDP, the education system leaves 20%+ of school leavers functionally illiterate, businesses are hamstrung by regulation- both EU and national- infrastructure investment levels are diabolically low, planning laws hamper progress, the University system primarily produces history and English graduates (who are largely unemployable), society is stalked by an unjustifiable sense of entitlement that means the unemployed refuse jobs, government support for high growth industries is sporadic and incoherent, Scotland is moving towards independence (which would reduce UK GDP) etc, etc. In this environment defence spending is parasitic, there is no threat to the UK except continued economic contraction.
lol a depressing read…especially Monty’s…its like a disaster book prologue.
Add to that, Monty, the US defence budget cuts and climb-down from top-pole.
http://defense.aol.com/2011/12/01/analyst-probes-allied-defense-budget-cycles-for-spending-clues/ re:US defence cuts
On the matter of the Type 26, from my reading it was supposed to reach something called ‘Capability Decision Point’ last month with the intent of having a detailed design leading to ‘Main Gate’ in 2013.
I haven’t seen any commentary indicating whether the schedule is being maintained or not?
Short of the economic black death spreading to this part of the world, the RAN will be in the market for 8 ANZAC frigate replacements from the early 2020′s(ANZAC was commissioned in 1996).
The UK has missed out repeately in the past on RAN surface warship requirements on cost. The T26 would be a chance to turn that around.
Hi Johnno,
Yes, I have been waiting to hear about the crew size and weapon systems being decided, so that detailed design could proceed…I’ve also been waiting to see the 10-year fully funded equipment programme, already overdue.
The Australian press has been raving about the first ANZAC now having a modernised air-defence system, with the rest to follow. The minister’s report was so full of superlatives that he forgot to mention what has been put onto it?
Lets hope this happens: http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2011/dec/08/british-troops-leave-afghanistan-early
A decade of fighting to cut and run on the finishing straight. Yeah, that would be wonderful.
Hahahahaha, finishing straight, lol, you should do stand up.
I might suggest that the future for Successor SSBN is looking bleak. Will the UK really continue to believe that nuclear weapons are still a valid deterrent? It hasn’t deterred Iran one little bit.
Some brighter news for the RN in 2012 – finally see the first significant enhancement in our frigate radar fit in many years with IRON DUKE getting the first 997 fit. Ops in hot places will feel a little less daunting.
So 2001 to 2014 is 13 years. But having done 10 of those and cutting and running on the twelfth year with one left isn’t close to the end? I’ve got enough fingers and toes to count that many years on so I’m pretty sure I’m right about that. The mission ends end of 2014. Why accelerate the draw down right near the end?
On PM, NSC and all that
I often quote from Guardian,just because they seem to be more on the ball with electronic media than the other main papers
I find the piece a shameful manipulation (while I welcome openness of sources, which especially in the field of national security, defence and MoD is sorely lacking)and an attempt to paint the members and the PM (who has not shown the best judgement in the last few days)into a corner, with the “revealed” inputs, before they even get to consider the decision.
Everyone will be bound to arrive to the conclusion that just like in the 60′s, 70′s and almost to the end of the 80′s – the US presidential election will drive not only the business cycle (no more) but also the military campaigns
Well, we’ll have to wait and see. The NSC has not made itself heard much, so here is an opportunity. Also, we will see if it just a shield: Decisions that are good for posturing are PM’s; decisions that “had to be taken” are NSC’s ?
Phil,
“The end” is not determined by some arbitrary number of years- it is defined by success; and that is many, many years away. If we are to withdraw without success then why not do it earlier and save ourselves some lives and treasure?
It’s not an arbitrary number it’s the culmination of a time table and a series of manoeuvres and handovers.
If you think success is stopping all violence in Helmand then you’re on the wrong page.
It is an entirely arbitrary number, the “timetable” is not benchmarked against anything: 2014 is as cut and run as 2012.
Prove it Derek. It’s the culmination of a series of manoeuvres. Bde battlespaces are being hopped to and then held, all to a timetable that is set out and part of ISAF planning. NES(N) just became a British led CF with the BG moving from the NDA AOs.
And? Well done on the box ticking, does not mean any actual objective has been achieved.
You know every time you post something I am further reminded of how intellectually inferior you are to the other posters and I.
Oh my self esteem!
And? I’ve just shown you that TFH is working to a timetable. Which you state is arbitrary but it is not. Many things have informed the end date of our combat operations end.
You still haven’t provided a particle of evidence to back up your claim. I have.
You have not shown anything except that there is a tick-box exercise that is entirely arbitrary. One thing decided the end of UK combat operations and that is the 2015 general election- the tick box exercise is aligned with that.
You still haven’t provided a particle of intellect. I have.
The 2014 date isn’t just a British end date. Nor is it the end date for involvement in Afghanistan. Military and otherwise. So are you suggesting that NATO and Karzai are influenced by British General Elections? Nobody has even set a date for an election yet.
Derek, why don’t you write something that you can back up and save the playground taunts. Your posts are like a yapping dog, loud and pointless. Show me the evidence that shows NATO wants to end combat operations in Afghan in 2014 because the British might hold an election in 2015. It possibly before.
Lol, idiot, I was talking about the UK- so typical of you to twist peoples words.
Once again, the time table is just a box ticking exercise that is designed solely to fit with a predetermined political date (for everyone) with little regard for the reality on the ground.
But our time table is NATOs time table first and foremost. So we should just go back to 2006 and do our own thing down there, and against Afghan wishes? Can you not grasp that the conditional and phased transition to Afghan led security efforts was decided in co-operation?
Youre just showing how thinly your knowledge is spread outside of discussion about the defence manufacturing industry. That combined with an inability to debate makes for a shallow discourse.
Again, show me the evidence that 2014 is arbitrary, no sorry, 2014 is based on Britain possibly having an election in 2015, or possibly not, or possibly sooner? And some here think we have no international influence!!
The reason why I like to take you (and GB, and DC and…) to task is perfectly reflected here:
“the end of UK combat operations and that is the 2015 general election- the tick box exercise is aligned with that.
You still haven’t provided a particle of intellect. I have.”
The fact that you/ they are/have been perfectly briefed does not prove any intellect, whatsoever.
And, please, remember this is a forum. If you don’t want to discuss (I find your input very valuable) but rather preach, I’m sure a soap box awaits
ACC,
Please unbind your knickers.
Because, unlike Phil, I actually want to contribute: http://www.defensenews.com/story.php?i=8511617&c=EUR&s=LAN
NATO’s timetable is for withdrawal is about extraction irrelevant of actual results, hence the tick box exercise that has Phil so fooled.
So Derek where does the phrase conditional and phased come from? It is in press releases, speeches, news stories and public domain briefings. A statement has been made. You refute it. The burden of proof is on you. You’ve argued that the time table for NATO as a whole is related to a British election. How can this be so when the time table was devised by several state actors reaching consensus? Are they dancing to our tune?
This might be relevant to your interests.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2011/12/08/ministry-of-defence-wasted-1bn_n_1136640.html?ref=uk
What an ugly thread this has become. Not up to the usual standards of this site.
It always gets ugly when Bob is challenged.
anyone who comes on here and slates a bloke who’s put his boots on the sand, many times and in particular when he’s not bigging himself up but pointing out scenarios he’s been involved in (ie time tables) is an arrogant fool.
Ah stuff it i can’t be nice, derek you’re a dick
(and hey at least phils kit post went international,on a well respected site, not bad for an “idiot”)
Sorry Derek,
I think your game is
1. You used an industry insider to gain credibility
2. you are a newspaper or another type news source trying to get the inside story, by being controversial enough on the topics, and feeding in technical detail, as and when required
You also change personality/ way of writing …
I am very sorry to see that kind of ethics
- but bring it on, happy to debate
I did not get two posts preceding mine!
… to see
- was in there, in the sentence, but not in my typing
There will be further cuts through to 2015 and beyond. Hammond is close to Osborne, and the additional 2% cut (and probably more) which Fox resisted will have to be paid.
I think that “like for like” Trident replacement is pretty much a done deal, but further manpower reductions are inevitable. Expect the amphibious capability to be further reduced (sale of another “Bay” class?) and the Type 26 programme to be cut to 8 just ships(the general purpose variant will probably be ditched).
I don’t know what the future of the QE/F35 force and the RFA replacement programme will be, but the mothballing/sale of both QEs would certainly be an option. Now we can see just how unrealistic the regeneration of RN carrier strike was.
@ACC A ways back before the kerfuffle (to quote Lou Todd, bless his soul) you asked Aussie Johno what air defense system has gone onto the ANZAC’s. Not wanting to speak for Johno but it was this http://www.australiandefence.com.au/archive/ceafar-s-outstanding-results-from-system-trials. (Why can’t I get this to hyperlink)
Anyway a home grown scaleable Aesa search and illuminator system.
CEAFAR and Ceamount.
re ACC’s question, Fromafar beat me to it, but yes the ANZAC Ship ASMD project has finally come good.
The ANZAC’s as built were pretty limited ships for low threat areas in the Pacific but since 2001 they have been doing 2/3rd’s of the RAN frigate rotations to the Middle East. The ships main weakness is the SAAB 2D target indication radar with only one 9LV director. The original project was to go to a 3D radar and a second fire control channel, but it grew.
The last ship built (Perth) has now been updated with the CEA Technologies (local coy) SEAFAR and SEAMOUNT systems. SEAFAR is a 6 face ‘C’ band search radar and SEAMount is a 4 face ‘x’ band illuminator, in this case linked to the Ships Evolved SeaSparrow Missle (8X4).
Fitting the system required a rather amazing new main mast but to the surprise of many of us, the system actually seems to work. It completed sea trial of WA last Feb and then went to USN ranges off Hawaii. The minister is beside himself, in a good way, and now fitting the other 7 ANZAC’s is for funding in the 2012 budget! Main complaint going around seems to be coming from the Navy’s smokers, to maintain reserve buoyancy they have had to enclose the previously open quarter deck.
@AJ
No intention to steal thunder.