Announcing the changes to a packed House of Commons (you didn’t think I was being serious did you?) Liam Fox made yet another round of defence cuts dressed in the finery of strategy. I am also beginning to feel sorry for the current Secretary of State for Defence, I can’t imagine when he took up politics he would find himself emasculating the British Armed Forces to the bewildered expressions from his fellow right wing MP’s and the traditional Tory vote. Whilst DFiD busies itself with funding IED factories, space programmes, C17’s and Mercedes dealerships all over the world the MoD is finding itself subject to yet another round of reforms, sorry, should have said, salami slices.
Summer is always a good time to bury bad news and the febrile atmosphere in Westminster about the phone interception scandals means this will be lost amidst the waves of outrage about voicemail.
Last year Liam Fox boasted about how he would cut MoD costs by 25% without affecting those beloved frontline troops. Of course, only an idiot would believe such a thing possible but Liam Fox was adamant.
Some things will have to change and believe me, they will
You’re not wrong Liam.
The new government had a difficult task, the infamous and growing black hole in the defence budget (£43b and counting) was always going to be difficult to resolve and the dire state of the nations finances meant defence was inevitably in for a rough time but to ring fence and increase spending on overseas aid whilst simultaneously engaged in two enduring campaigns is simply not the behaviour of a right wing government.
I must be living in some sort of alternative universe where Saint Bono has a greater influence on defence spending than the Secretary of State for Defence.
There would be nothing at all wrong with cutting defence if commitments were equally curtailed, if a coherent strategy resulted in a sustainable posture but the SDSR was simply just another in a long line of defence cuts masquerading as a strategic vision. No difficult choices were made and the ‘Adaptable Britain’ posture means that politicians can continue to take the piss out of the armed forces, write cheques with their mouths the forces will find increasingly difficult to cash and strut their stuff, talking big but failing to admit we are rapidly becoming a fur coat and no knickers laughing stock.
No strategic shrinkage my big fat arse.
They make me sick
OK, rant over, sorry for the sweary bits, what has been announced.
Manning
The widely predicted drop to about 84,000 soldiers in the Regular Army will occur post 2015 as we move towards the promised land of Future Force 2020.
On top of the 7,000 cuts announced in the SDSR this means roughly another 10,000 so Liam’s bold assertions that budget savings would not impact the front line and Dave’s insistence that there would be no strategic shrinkage seem a bit hollow.
So post 2015 when we have officially declared victory in Afghanistan some of those returning will be asked to leave, cheers fellas, off you go.
Totting up the figures of the SDSR and these announcements;
- Royal Air Force will lose 5,000 personnel or roughly 13%
- Army will lose 17,000 personnel or roughly 17%
- Royal Navy will lose 5,000 personnel or roughly 14%
The remaining Army personnel will be formed into 5 Multi Role Brigades of about 6,000 personnel each although the composition, especially Combat Support and Combat Service Support units, have yet to be formalised.
Basing
The returning units from Germany will be housed in a number of consolidated locations, forming MRB’s in the East of England and Scotland
Lyneham will be the preferred location for future Defence Technical Training, wonder where that leaves the hugely expensive St Athan facilities?
The Typhoon Force will be built up at RAF Lossiemouth which will become the base for the Northern QRA missions
Just to keep them happy north of the Border the MoD presence will actually increase
And finally, at Regional Brigade level, the Army will maintain all 10 Brigade headquarters. Project AVANTI recommends disbanding HQ 2nd Division at Edinburgh, HQ 4th Division at Aldershot and HQ 5th Division at Shrewsbury and replacing them all with a single 2-star support command, which will be based in Aldershot.
The Army has also concluded that 19 Light Brigade in Northern Ireland should be disbanded.
Reserve Forces
In yet another review led re-organisation the Great White Hope of the Armed Forces will be expanded.
I have to say, despite the contribution of reserve forces to current and past operations, I remain sceptical that they can live up to the expectations now being firmly placed on their shoulders. Some significant barriers remain to a greater use of reserve forces.
Employers, as economic conditions continue to be difficult there are few organisations outside the public sector who have any enthusiasm for allowing their staff to regularly take extended time for pre deployment training, deployment and post deployment time. I think employers currently receive about a hundred pounds per day if they need to employ a temporary worker which for many simply is not enough.
Without a serious look at legislation and funding any changes, the current system may prevent an increase.
There are many arguments for a greater use of reserves, especially in specialist trades like medics or engineers where they can utilise their civilian skills but in other areas it is difficult to match skills, experience and rank. This can sometime lead to utilising reserve forces in roles not commensurate with their rank/pay or creating risk pockets in other areas. The current use of the TA, for example, works very well indeed and they should be collectively recognised for having moved on significantly from the BAOR days but pushing it beyond the current boundaries may well do more harm than good.
Using reserve forces for a greater percentage of supporting roles in the UK, changing the relative percentages of deployable and non deployable personnel may prove useful. Greater integration seems to be the order of the day, perhaps fewer sub units and a more flexible engagement model may emerge with these units supporting non critical, lower intensity, deployments.
I find the notion of reserve forces taking a greater role in UK Resilience and Homeland Security most intriguing. I especially hate the term Homeland Security; it’s so American and has rather worrying overtones. The UK has a mature and capable civil resilience infrastructure in both legislative and organisation terms, the armed forces have been seen as a provider of absolute last resort for some time now but especially in light of the Civil Contingencies Act 2004. The MoD has also continually moved away from this notion and encouraged (through chargeback mechanisms) Category 1 responders like the emergency services and local authorities (the lead agencies in emergency and security response) to resource themselves, which they have largely done.
What role the reserves will play in this is yet to be defined but I find the notion rather woolly headed thinking, aping the US National Guard but without the doctrine, equipment or structure. I looked at this particular issue in the run up to the election but I still don’t quite see the point (click the link and have a read)
The statement makes a comparison with the relative percentages of reserve and regular forces in the USA, Australia and Canada but we should be extremely wary of these comparisons. The USNG is funded differently and there is a massive difference between the US and UK forces in the number of uniformed personnel to civil servants and contractors that serves to skew the figures. The US is also looking at the future of its various reserve forces; click here for the findings of the recent Reimer Panel Report.
The Future Reserve Review document is here if anyone fancies a read.
General Houghton who had a big part in this reserves review is a very clever and strategic thinker and the general idea of using a greater percentage of reserve forces (Whole Force Concept) have great merit but the devil will be in the detail and if we think we can do it on the cheap the result will be far worse than expected.
Will be covering reserve forces in a future post.
Equipment
The announcement firms up commitment to a few areas that were previously a little vague
It commits to a published 10 year equipment plan in 2011, fully funded and balanced
Over the next decade the oft discussed 14 Chinooks will be ordered, the QE aircraft carrier will receive cats and traps, initial spending on F35C confirmed (less than 20 aircraft I think in this period with an unspecified number to follow), Type 26 developed, Rivet Joint (Air Seeker) aircraft confirmed and Warrior upgrade.
Significantly, no mention of FRES and the decision to put cats and traps onto the QE either says it’s definitely coming into service or definitely being flogged to France, depending on your viewpoint!
The Jam
Excuse me for being cynical but every time I hear about real term increases and future funding provisions in a Parliamentary session that may well include a completely different party in power I tend to just shrug my shoulders and as my kids might say, yeah whatever.
£3b extra on equipment post 2015 and £1.5b for the reserves is on offer.
It is stated that the increase will take inflation into account, is that standard retail inflation of defence inflation because the difference is crucial and not insignificant.
This just leads me to believe that the jam on offer is a mirage and in 5 years time the MoD will be having yet another crisis at PR time, concocting yet another finance led review and calling it a strategic adjustment.
UPDATE
Seems there was a spot of confusion about the second carrier getting the catapults, from the Scotsman
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics/Minister-39misspoke-over-fastjet-pledge.6804289.jp
THERE was confusion last night over the UK government’s plans for the new aircraft carriers, as officials claimed that Defence Secretary Liam Fox “misspoke” when he said that both of them would both be prepared for use by fighter jets.In his statement on Monday over the future funding of the military, Dr Fox said that the decision made in the autumn to effectively mothball one of the new carriers might be reversed. But yesterday the Ministry of Defence insisted that the minister had made a mistake and had “misspoke”. A spokeswoman added: “As previously announced, only one of the carriers will get the cat and trap.”
“The widely predicted drop to about 84,000 soldiers in the Regular Army will occur post 2015 as we move towards the promised land of Future Force 2020.”
I can’t see why this should come as a surprise to anyone?
http://jedibeeftrix.wordpress.com/2011/02/22/sdsr-part-deux-%e2%80%93-further-reductions-to-come/
“every time I hear about real term increases and future funding provisions in a Parliamentary session that may well include a completely different party in power I tend to just shrug my shoulders”
whoa there soldier! very much agreed, and hopefully we can agree that the answer to this question lies in the three month treasury review that should now be concluded, about which we should hear the results in September?
@ Jedibeeftrix
The way things are going will be in the midst of a General Election in September……
if it does i predict an outright conservative majority, or at least another coalition; the tories have twelve months of really bad murdoch press, and 13 years of bad murdoch press, the reverse is true for labour.
When are ya’ll going to quit fantasizing about F-35? The politicians are going to get you right up to the altar, and then call off the wedding for lack of funds…
Meanwhile they will have your armed services attacking one another like dogs over the scraps. It’s sad to watch them play games with the UK’s security.
Well unless Camron’s team get off their backsides this stuff will stick.
@TD
Must have misheard SofS this afternoon. I thought he committed to 5 MRBs, (plus 16 AAB & 3Cdo Bde).
Well spotted Bob, was a typo, corrected now
As you note the key point ref increased use of reserves is an appropriate engagement and funding models.
There is no point in constant comparison to the US National Guard, what is being suggested is nothing like the NG model- The Lord Lieutenant of Buckinghamshire will not be able to call out the local regiment as needs must
Of course the other thing with increased use of reserves (the citizen soldiers of the American report) is that they are very useful for defence of the realm (Homeland Security ?) but things get a lot more complex when you ‘need’ to use them badly thought out, strategically irrelevant foreign adventures / “wars of choice”.
“Well unless Camron’s team get off their backsides this stuff will stick”
– What he needs is a good PR man, someone who knows the game, someone with a ruthless streak. Someone like Andy Coulson
“What he needs is a good PR man, someone who knows the game, someone with a ruthless streak. Someone like Andy Coulson”
Haha!
made me laugh at 6:30am, cheers.
Re the Reserves, I saw no real movement to actually making them more effective, just musings. Deploying as units is absolutely the best option in all sorts of ways, but you need to commit to a) hard fixed term enlistments and training (NG insists on 6 years initially) and b) full-time basic training for those without the benefit of it already. Nothing else will build the “trained” number to the degree required. Insisting on TA service for Regular Reservists would be a massive boost too, although doing so on the same basis as reservists would be essential (6 years either full-time or part-time)
One other thing: Fox specifically mentioned converting the QE for CATOBAR. That must mean in addition to Prince of Wales. Now, if they would kindly forget the F35 and just buy enough F18E/F for both….
Liam Fox specifically answered to a question and said that now the plan, fully budgeted in his words, is to convert BOTH CVFs:
Mr Ian Davidson (Glasgow South West) (Lab/Co-op): Will the Secretary of State confirm the exact details of the announcement he made in his statement when he said, “I can therefore now give the go-ahead for the procurement of” a list of things, including “the cat and traps for the Queen Elizabeth class carriers”. Does that mean that both carriers will receive cat and traps?
Dr Fox: That is our plan, and I have agreed to my officials now getting involved in contract negotiations. They were not previously able to do so because we were not guaranteed that we would have the budget. When we make decisions of this nature we must ensure that we have the wherewithal to pay for them. Otherwise, as I have said, they are simply a wish list.
http://www.publications.parliament.u…ebate/c_06.htm
The number of F35 to be ordered by 2020, according to the last production plan dated November 2009 (there has not been yet a new plan published, at least not one i’m aware of) would actually mean that the UK would have 36 + 3 F35s in 2020, roughly compatible with the once mentioned 40 figure.
45 Commando will move south to join the rest of the 3rd Commando Brigade, but not before 2015.
The Marittime Reserve is to be increased to 3100 men and the Review has concluded that there’s scope to man the P2000 boat fleet with specifically trained reservists to give those boats a Coastal Defence role, which is also a good news.
For the rest, i onviously anxiously wait for the September equipment budget plan, but yesterday’s announcement i actually found very promising, and the Reserves Review makes lots of sense. Better still, it is actually being funded, which is a nice change of pace.
I’m also all too glad to have confirmation that the budget is there for the Warrior upgrade to finally start seriously, that the Rivet Joint and the Chinooks are confirmed and that at the end of this year there will be no delays in moving to Phase 2 of the designing work of the Type 26.
Funding programmes so they do not stall every two minutes but can continue on schedule without delays is the very first requisite for avoiding cost overruns.
Call me an hopeless optimist if you will, but i actually liked yesterday’s announcements a lot. There’s lots of moves that make perfect sense, and now i hope they just stick to the plan like glue.
Here is the look over the announcements that i provide: http://ukarmedforcescommentary.blogspot.com/2011/07/day-of-announcements.html
Does anyone believe this prepares us for imminent European economic meltdown & unrest, and the race with Russia (and others) for the pole’s resources?
I’m not sure about this bit:
“The UK has a mature and capable civil resilience infrastructure in both legislative and organisation terms”
Civil Defence was effectively disbanded in 1968, but retained an obligation on Councils to retain bunkers etc. until the end of the Cold War when that and what was left of the ROC was also done away with. I’ve seen Orkney Island Council’s civil contingency plan (they still have a bunker), but when it talks about asking the scouts for tents and getting the TA to provide manpower (there are about eight of them in in Orkney, assuming they’re not deployed) it does look a little Dad’s Army. I can’t but think civil resilience in the UK is another ‘emperor’s new clothes’ deal.
Looks a bit more positive, Fox seems to have won a small battle. But some questions remain.
Replacement MPA, is anything in the Pipeline?
Numbers of type 26, just 16 or if the price is right are more likely
Why close Leuchars, isn`t it the better airfield with 2 runways, since Kinloss is going over to the army , why notnearby Lossiemouth too?
Does this mean that Marham will be the sole F35c
base?
What will happen to the relatively modern RAF leeming??
If their is a dely with the Trident replacement is Astute (8) still apossibility
Gabriele
“I’m also all too glad to have confirmation that the budget is there for the Warrior upgrade to finally start seriously”
Yes, good news and it looks as if FRES SV tracked might be going ahead too. Please see a very short article next to the main one in the “Telegraph” today (I couldn’t access this in the “Telegraph” online version). Alternatively you could look at my recent reply to Phil Darley in the “Future Army Vehicles” thread. The bad news, according to that article, is that FRES Utility (wheeled) will not be going ahead. The article refers to the FRES vehicles, infuriatingly,as “armoured cars”!
Without FRES UV do we have enough vehicles to even equip one MRB properly let alone all five of them?
@ Tubby
Don’t panic Pike! We are shrinking the army to fit the number of vehicles.
I am still not sure about this MRB idea….
The manpower reductions are like cutting an arm off defence, but as they are allowing the fingernails of the remaining arm to grow a little longer, we are supposed to praise the coalition for “saving” defence. Hmmm….
Global economic debt is likely to lead to a Suez/Falklands size war between now & 2020. If DfID bought transport kit for our forces, we might scrape a Falklands style victory. Without it we face a Suez style national humiliation.
@x never a truer word spoken in jest. But seriously if we end binning most of MRAP vehicles after shagging them out in Afghanistan we will end up with a force able to do formation recce with uber expensive FRES SV and fight its way in with IFV based on refitted Warrior and Challenger and we will be down to relying on our 200 Bulldogs as APC’s – I am guessing that enough for one Battalion only? Surely we need around 2000 FRES UV vehicles (be it Boxer or Piranha V or whatever) to be able to properly equip our 5 MRB’s?
EDIT I realised I have over-cooked the numbers, but presumably the minimum number of vehicles to move a battalion of 1,200 is 120, and you would need more than 120 once you factor in all the other vehicles attached to your mechanised battalion? So if you have two mechanised battalions in one MRB then you need at least 240 per MRB and 5 MRB equals 1,200, and that is without spares, training vehicles and vehicles set up for special roles like command post.
@ Tubby
A Warrior based armoured infantry battalion has (had?) the following,
45 x Warrior
11 x Warrior (ATGW)
25 x FV432
8 x Scimitar
7 x Spartan
2 x Sultan
plus
1 x Samson
7 x Warrior (REME)
42 x wheeled vehicles
@ John H
If the army shrinks to that 80,000 number it means if France keeps her army at 120,000 she will have a 50% advantage over her neighbours (the big ‘uns UK, German, Italy, and Spain.) I am now convinced that one of CVF will go to France too. So not bad for a country that lost WW2 and sat on the sidelines during the Cold War.
X
Without being overdramatic, are we watching the end of Britain? The collapse of Defence & Law & Order. No plan for Industry & how we pay our way in the World.
Politicians, Press, Police, Bankers, judges , Civil Servants, have all lost the respect of the public.
Thanks x,
Any feeling of what a mechanised infantry battalion would look like over an armoured infantry battalion (assuming I have gotten the right end of the stick that if they are mechanised then they would be operating a wheeled infantry carrier)?
@ JH
Yes mate. Shit’s hit the fan. Better get paddling.
That Chris in Virginia is a pessimistic chap. We’re not fantasising about the F35, the UK has already signed up for three whatever happens.
And now, with both new aircraft carriers set to get cats and traps, the two ships can get one F35 each!
Then all we’ll need to do is find an extra couple of billion quid to build a third carrier for the other F35. Simples.
No need the 3rd is for spares
@ John H
Well yes. I have had a great afternoon watching the “Murdochs at the Committee” an art house piece. My MP sits on the committee. Doesn’t make me proud, just a bit sick. We shall see how Call Me Dave does tomorrow. I don’t hold out much hope.
Only the Euro collapsing can save us now. I am considering getting a stock of food and some other essentials. It could be a hungry winter as well as cold winter this year……
@ Tubby
Well the Saxon based mechanised battalions had 51 Saxon to move 667 bodies.
@ x; page 53 in the tatics manual, titled shuttle runs!!!!
@ Rec – “Numbers of type 26, just 16 or if the price is right are more likely”
I thought it was thirteen?
@ X – “I am now convinced that one of CVF will go to France too.”
why, you are witnessing a budget uplift heavily tied to the acquisition of naval assets…….?
you might still argue that it is not enough, but then how is this worse than the situation yesterday, and if so i must ask what you were expecting?
Thanks x,
Sorry for being a lazy git and not looking this stuff up myself. Sounds like we will have more than enough Warrior’s upgraded for 5 armoured infantry battalions, and we might just scrape enough Bulldog’s for 5 armoured infantry battalions, but where we are going to fall short is the kit for the mechanised infantry battalions. This is obviously based on what has suggested by others of each MRB having one armoured infantry battalion and two mechanised infantry battalions.
@ Tubby
Well I’m normally the lazy git so I wouldn’t worry too much about it!
What you say underlines why the idea of MRB is a bit silly. Let say we go to war (a proper one with tanks and big guns and stuff) in the next decade as part of a coalition all we will be able to summon up at best is one armoured brigade which means 2 batts worth. Instead of MRB we would be better having an armoured brigade to go and one in training. And until money appears for a wheeled vehicle (either an APC or MRAP) all the rest goes light role. Better to have two well equipped brigades to go in one roll then piecemeal MRB. As I keep saying we are best planning an “army” that can be packed into 6 landing ships than planning a salami sausage army that does everything but to no (physical) depth to be of any worth.
@ Jedibeefrix
Its TD’s fault for planting the idea in my head. I was very happy about both CVF getting the cats and traps. But it smells a funny colour……
I would have been a lot happier if T26 had bitten the dust then I would know somebody at MoD(N) was actually thinking. But no.
“Its TD’s fault for planting the idea in my head. I was very happy about both CVF getting the cats and traps. But it smells a funny colour…”
something in the water?
Well don’t you think it is odd? Where is the money for the air group? We are to get 20 F35 in this round. Enough for what an OCU, some spares, perhaps 2 or 3 for development, 1 or 2 for ETPS?
The MN have 31 Rafale M, but they can piggy back their training off the French airforce. And don’t forget they still have Super Étendard in good numbers. And they only operate one carrier. Now on balance given HMG’s procurement record who do you think is going to have enough planes to fly off their carrier come 2020? And on balance given HMG’s record on putting Britain first and asset management/disposal what do you think will happen to one of the two CVF???????
@ Paul G re tactics manual
Never understand why they issued that book. If you are being shot at you have no time to read. It is shoot, dig, brew and not necessarily in that order.
Despite appearing to be emphatic about both carriers being fitted yesterday a parliamentary answer seems to have muddied the water again
Ahhhhh, when will this confusion end
@ TD
You could always use your vast hidden resources to move to Costa Rica and start a defence blog there…..
I think we have to sit tight for a bit on the planning. Isn’t there a budget report due soon? We’ll know more then.
As for the decline of Britain? We’re still a huge center for finance, insurance, legal and other services. The banks have just been taught a hard lesson in what happens when you don’t thoroughly research your investments and the credit agencies will be a little more cautious now.
I actually think Britain might be just on the brink of coming back strong.
“I actually think Britain might be just on the brink of coming back strong.”
I very much agree.
X, just popping down to the RAF cash dispenser !
@ TD
I note it is “the” cash dispenser. From what I remember when the programme was planned there should have been a cash dispenser at each base. Then cost over runs. The mint changes the size of the coins. Somebody thinks it would be a wheeze to introduce the 20p……..
Boss, ask them how my checks are coming along.
Have a look at this
http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/politics/Minister-39misspoke-over-fastjet-pledge.6804289.jp
So much for the jam… I am wondering however if Fox did it on purpose.
Its a bit of a cockup isn’t it?
Even if money were not quite as critical an issue as it is, it would take years for us to build up the aircraft fleet and deck crews for even just the one carrier. Having one ship fitted out at a later date perhaps isn’t as big a problem as some folks make out.
Anyway, if both tubs are brought into service, at some point the desire to fit the hobbled ship with cats and traps will eventually become irresistable, simply due to the availability issue of having only the one carrier.
the suggestion is only that both get properly equipped, not that both get taken into full service with individual crews.
afaik mothballing one, so that it can cover refits is still suggested, and in the absence of fjull service a very sensible suggestion as it will enable a permanent ability to sortie a carrier task group, rather than a part time one.
The article also says that Fox has issued private assurances that both will be kitted out. So on the balance of probabilities, both will be kitted out. Which is good, may as well do a proper job of it. Only the British government would even consider spending billions for a job half done.
Chris B
Britain is on the brink. With the right leadership cutting waste while investing in industry, energy & transport infrastructure & keeping our borders & streets safe, then the UK could come back strong.
Sadly, there is little sign of that.
The financial sector makes money for itself (£14 billion in bonuses despite the taxpayer bailout) , but returns for savers & pensioners are woeful.
Some British banks could lose billions if the Eurozone goes wrong. HSBC could go bust overnight if Chinas huge debt becomes unmanageable. The UK government has not got the resources to save a bank as large as HSBC.
The political elite is still determined to give the money the UK needs for investment to every third world dictator/sponger. They will not opt out of crazy EU/ECHR rules destroying law & order/immigration in the UK.
I hope you are right, it is still do able if the political elite grasp reality, but sadly I see little sign of building Britain up.