Reports from a number of news sources are indicating that the Libyan authorities have announced that an air strike on a house has killed Saif al Arab Gaddafi, the youngest son of the Muammar Gaddafi.
A few thoughts;
If the intention was to eliminate both of them should they not have used multiple or larger munitions, opportunities like this do not presenht themselves very often so when you only have one shot you should make it count!
That by the way, was said with tongue firmly in cheek, there are a million factors that influence what weapons are deployed and without knowing the facts it is a bit churlish to moan, perhaps it was just bad luck that the 4th bomb did not explode.
What dropped them?
[TD: in an earlier revision I wondered if it was a B2 but this was just a wild guess and a bit of idle speculation, it might have been a cruise missile or weapon delivered by any NATO aircraft]
What if the target was the next generation not Muammar Gaddafi or maybe it was Muammar,?
What is the next move?
NATO is upping the ante, clearly on shaky ground in terms of UN1973 although the carefully observed stance of attacking command and control facilities remains a viable fig leaf, the rebels seem to be gaining the upper hand in Misrata, Exercise Cougar 11 is making plenty of noise around Cyprus and even the Italians are about to chip in now the outcome is more assured.
I still think he is not going to go without a fight but no doubt this strike sends a strong message, he is a hunted man and when backed into a corner dictators can do unpredictable things.
The best outcome would be a negotiated exile and swift transition to a new government that retains existing borders but some form of messy partition seems the most likely and this is far from ideal.
A dictator with a grudge, lots of oil, a track record of funding/supplying terrorist organisations and the remnants of a chemical weapons arsenal is not something the Europe would like to have on its southern border.
For the avoidance of any confusion, Saif al-Arab, the sixth son allegedly killed, is not the same as Saif al-Islam, the second son who has been much on the TV screens as the regime’s spokesman.
why would you assume that it was a B-2 that dropped the bomb?
the US has had a very light foot print in this war and in this most visible failure of the war, you want to put the attack on the shoulders of the US of A????
come on Think Defence! you’re throwing meat to the lions on this!
just a wild guess really sol, just spitballin as they say
Have a look at this vid from the BBC at about 50 seconds
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13251570
Any idea what that is, is it a GBU12, a weapon designed for smashing reinforced concrete and not cleared for release from any UK aircraft that I can think about.
Might be one of those perhaps
By the way, its not a slight on anyone, it was a NATO operation and whether it was French, Italian, UK or US aircraft that did the job is irrelevant
Will change the post if you think people might take it the wrong way though, this is sensitive stuff
If anyone chooses to take it out of context, i’d say that’s their problem.
Hopefully it won’t be lost on Gaddafi that if he had really been the target then a lot more bombs would have been dropped. Maybe he’ll get the message but i won’t hold my breath.
The only shame is they missed. When they were trying to hit Saddam they didn’t play around. In once instance, about 12 minutes after he entered an Iraqi bar (I think it was a bar) 4 2000lb JDAMs landed on it courtesy of a B-1B. As for it being a B-2 that dropped the bombs I’d say the odds are about zero. My guess would be a Rafale did the deed.
Weren’t the GBU-12′s replaced with GBU-24′s as that’s third gen? The Rafale is cleared for LGB’s I think and didn’t the Typhoon get clearance as well? Tornado’s can drop them of course.
If, and that’s a very big if at this point, it was the larger GBU-28 the US would be involved because only the B-2 and F-15E’s carry them. Unless we gave Britain or France them. Unlikely but always a chance.
Question: Did a bomb go off and the one shown in the video was the 2nd one of a Double Tap strike that was a dud? Or it was a single bomb and everybody was killed when the debris rained down from it breaking in.
welcome to Think Defence tps and sferrin, what we need is a good bomb spotter!
I also wondered if the one in the video was concrete
TD,
It’s Solomon, when you are talking about the US you must realise that logic and common sense go flying out of the window at the slightest criticism of his country.
He is very adept at deriding other nations even to the point of rudeness and profanity,but make a suggestion such as you have and look at the reaction.
Please do not remove your post due to anything he says,it was just a likely to have been a US aircraft as any other nation taking part and a B2 would fit the picture perfectly.
I’m no bomb expert but think about this :
The BBC report 3 explosions, and one dud. That sounds like the payload of a fair-sized fighter-bomber, or a pair of smaller planes like Harriers. If it was a “heavy”, they weren’t firing their full load, that’s for sure. I doubt it would be a B-2 – handing around for CAS after SEAD is complete is just a waste of airframe hours, and nothing costs more to run than a B-2!!! Either it was a drone or standard fighter-bomber CAS. Presumably this was time-sensitive, so you would use whatever was in the area, you wouldn’t wait for Tomahawks or to launch from a carrier (let alone Italian bases).
On the other hand, Muammar and others got out of there alive, you would have thought that if they’d had heavier weaponry to hand, they would have used it – although he may well have been in a bunker.
Looking at the BBC video, the UXO looks a bit longer than the man is tall, so 7′?? – certainly not the 10′+ of bigger bombs – and 2-3 hands in diameter. Best guess is that it’s a 500lb Mk82?
Obviously they needed guidance on it. Presumably we’ve got boots on the ground in Tripoli, but they probably wouldn’t be in the right place to illuminate a time-sensitive target like this. Could lase it from the plane but the Yanks in particular would probably prefer GPS.
It looks a clean bomb – no fins of any kind, and no guidance on the front as you’d expect for a Paveway-type bomb. My guess would be that it had a JDAM kit on the back end, which has fallen off en route.
So – my guess as a non-expert would be a 500lb Mk82 with JDAM guidance.
The time-sensitivity would imply a loitering platform, I’d go for a Reaper dumping everything it had at the target. Say two Hellfires and two 500lb JDAMs, of which only one exploded. Three separate strikes would cause lots of surface damage, but wouldn’t deliver enough explosive to hurt anyone below ground. That second 500lb bomb could have made all the difference to Muammar’s life expectancy.
Still, there’s nothing like bringing the battle to the enemy, those in charge tend to be a bit more aggressive when the battle is miles away from their family.
That doesn’t narrow it down much, but
You know, kinda reminds me of the attempt on hitler at his wolf’s lair! lot of questions and foggyness as soon as it happens.
What nation or even what platform it originated doesnt matter, what matters is the intel behind it; was the intel stating it was another C3I post, or was there intel dictating that more was presenting itself as a target.
As already said, if we – NATO – wanted gadaffi dead then most likely he’d be dead already or quite very out of the picture like sadman was (in a pit).
This is deffinatly a bomb lol or cruise missile, but the latter seems to have gone out of fashion lately, if it was fixed wing, its large enough to really discount any of the US drones, probably just one NATO aircraft that was near or ready at the time when the target became live.
Dont listen to solomon; “the US has had a very light foot print in this war” of course that is what they want the US civvies to think… might be true, might not be. Either way the US is in this NATO package; all shoulder the responcibility in this episode.
Either way, another reminder to Gadaffi to put up that tent of his elsewhere tonight
I was one of Gadaffis kids and he told me he was popping round for a brew I would run the other way!
The reason I wondered if it was a B2 (and by the way it was a compliment) is because on the BBC video it quite clearly shows an unexploded or inert munition that looks unlike anything in the UK inventory and very much like the long thin penetrators in a GBU12/24 style
I have done enough upsetting people lately so thought a quick post update to what was a hastily written post, would be sensible
It’s a BLU-109 penetration bomb by my eye, flared tail and little deformation give it away. What dropped it is anyone’s guess as and how it was guided is also up for discussion my bet would be the standard JDAM kit as its accurate enough.
Euan, if thats the case then the plot just might thicken because I think that the BLU109 is used on UK EPIII’s
Its all very complicated so we might all be completely wrong
Exacta mondo TD but it’s also used by other folk in smaller batches for bunker busting so who dropped it and what guidance it had is the question. It’s an inert training round by my guess for obvious reasons and has been discussed for use as a low collateral damage option for scenarios like this one. The Froggies as far as I know have been dropping concrete inert rounds in Afghan for the same reasons which do the job nicely.
It was done by 2x Mirage 2000.
Ah, that’s OK then, we can start the slagging!!
All the local election candidates I know are sat around hoping that Gaddafi the Lockerbie Bomber and someone who can be blamed for the embassy shooting, buy it in the next 40hrs.
“The best outcome would be a negotiated exile and swift transition to a new government that retains existing borders but some form of messy partition seems the most likely and this is far from ideal.”
Unfortuantly, Exile has been ruled out, the fools made the decision that it was ICC or nothing.
I dont think a unity government will work, and a seperation might be messy, but India/Pakistan/Bangladesh is hardly Somalia.
Hi DJ,
RE “Exile has been ruled out, the fools made the decision that it was ICC or nothing.”
- smacks of the wisdom of Casablanca
RE “I dont think a unity government will work, and a seperation might be messy, but India/Pakistan/Bangladesh is hardly Somalia”
- you mean that in Somalia they shoot at each other (and everyone else) with AK47s and RPGs whereas on the Indian subcontinent they have by now worked up the calibers from tank guns all the way to nukes (but leave outsiders alone)?…how many shooting wars over Kashmir by now (and it is only an emotional issue! Imagine when it will be about the life line for the whole country; or which of the two of them will get the oil)
I think they have stopped the shooting now in the ex-Spanish Sahara – and it was only fertilizer that they were digging out of the ground there…
- took about 40 years to get to some stability
- have you noticed that there is now fighting around Kufra; look that one up on the map and the gist will start to emerge (we know where the oil fields are). A good try to grab something that you can hold onto, post cease-fire
ACC
Didnt say it was perfect, but Pakistan/India is closer the Germany/France than Nazi/Jews
Kashmir is about a lot more than “emotion”, theres a group of nomadic people that traveled from Kashmire, through North West Froniter Province and into Afghanistan and back that suddenly found out they’d lost half their grazing lands.
The Pakistani Army was dragged into war behind them.
As I said, not perfect, but probably the best outcome
Just splitting hairs:
“Pakistan/India is closer the Germany/France than Nazi/Jews”
- yes, eastern and western Fran-istan, split and then at war with each other forever after
- I also hope it won’t come to the Nazi/ Jew total elimination of one part of a nation at odds; 49 heads of tribes signed a declaration for Gaddafists to leave, or else… (Gaddafi’s tribe is one of the small ones, that’s how it was possible for him to play the big ones against each other; add a few thousand mercenaries for roundation errors)