With the SNP’s electoral gains this week there has been increasing discussion on the possibility of a referendum to decide one the issue of independence. Putting aside the political issues for a moment, what would it mean for the rest of the United Kingdoms military forces and what would an independent Scottish force look like?
A few issues to resolve before looking at the details
- What would a newly independent Scotland’s strategic position be, would it stay in the EU, the Commonwealth and NATO?
- Would some form of mutual defence agreement between Scotland and the UK be acceptable to both nations
- What would a timetable for change look like
- What about Faslane and Coulport, the home of the UK’s nuclear deterrent, where would that go
These are the big issues but there would be many others, would Scottish citizens be allowed to serve in the UK armed forces like other commonwealth nations and Ireland for example, would RAF bases remain and what would the distribution of SAR responsibilities for example.
If a graduated split were to take place would Scotland receive a proportion of the UK’s defence equipment, a quarter of Challengers or a handful of Type 23′s or would it be based on population, would it even want them.
Many interesting questions.
I daresay Westminster will have little appetite for giving Scotland anything should they decide to leave the Union. That equipment and those bases belong to the United Kingdom after all, something of which they are no longer part.
The SNP are anti nuclear so the whole sub fleet would have to move to plymouth
Presuming that Scotland wanted to defend its own air space (unlike say the Baltic states) it would simply need an ability to field a single QRA, some maritime patrol aircraft (they could use training facilities south of the border to train their pilots), a small number of utility helicopters and a small ground force and a they would need to buy some OPV’s, this assumes they issue a contract for civilian SAR capability, and as the SNP as left of centre I would expect that they would not be keen on maintaining a military beyond self-defence.
So if it happens (and it will not be for a few years yet, as only ~1/3rd of the population in Scotland are in favour of independence), I say we give the some of the Typhoon’s needing mid-life extension, give them the Lynx 9′s, offer them a limited number of training places for pilots, and hand over some of the military vehicles we planned to mothball. SNP favour re-vitalising their industry, so they should be happy enough to build some new OPV’s as the backbone of their new Republic of Scotland Navy. Then if they are sensible they would buy a small number of C-295′s in a mixture of MP and utility role. Hopefully they the split will be amicable enough RAF aircraft can transit Scottish airspace.
The main issues would be the relocation of nuclear submarines at Faslane combined with a guarantee that Scotland would be expecting us to lease bases in Scotland as the withdrawal of forces. Also I anticipate lots of issues over old nuclear subs and nuclear power plants and who responsible for the liabilities for them, I voting that Scotland is, as I have little time for the self-serving SNP.
i’m sure i read somewhere that were it to happen scotland wouldn’t automatically be a part of the eu, they’d have to apply like anyone else (imagine a uk veto of that if possible!) … would england, wales and northern ireland stay together as the uk? in which case i would agree with 13th above, that scotland would have to buy any military equipment from the uk, not simply be given it – i would also suggest any furture scottish military would be similar to the republic of ireland’s forces. i would have thought scottish personnel would still be welcomed into the uk military, however. it may also be the case the uk insists on retaining the naval bases as sovereign uk territory for the nuclear subs, and for patrols etc. the scotland – iceland gap. saying all this, i don’t actually think, when all the facts are considered, it makes sense for scotland to have full independence – their increasing powers of self-rule / tax raising are sufficient and give them more power in a way, as scottish mps still set english policy (ie. the disgraceful university fees for england passed by scottish labour mps whilst their own constituents pay nothing). phew, that turned into a mini rant!
This is a really interesting post because it would have real ramificasions for uk defence.
The current defence plans would have to be compleatly scrapped.
For example all the air bases are now in the wrong place.
How would the equipment and man power be split?
What about welsh and northern ireland? They might won’t independance too.
I realise I jumped sentences in my last post. I was trying to say that the SNP would expect us to still lease bases as the withdrawal of our forces would have a negative impact on their economy, but I got sidetracked slagging off the SNP who I dislike with a certain amount of irrational passion.
@Adam Sudgen,
If Wales left the union they would be up shit creek without a paddle, as the public sector are a major employer in Wales, can you imagine what their unemployment would look like if the DVLA had to relocate?
With the aircaft carriers being built in scotland, will the expect to get the contract for there refits while they are in service? same goes for the type 45s
As a defensive measure there should dig a great big moat it would fill with sea water and make scotland an island. Or a sea canal like the one in northern germany
You wrote about potential issues between an independent Scotland and UK.
If Scotland is independent, ‘UK’ will not have any more meaning (UK of England and Northern Ireland?)…
RE ”
would also suggest any furture scottish military would be similar to the republic of ireland’s forces*
- assume lease of bases in two ways: Nuclesr subs (for us) and rent-a -QRA (for both, using the current definiotion of air space.
What would the rest of the force look like? Ireland does not have an important off-shore sector (to secure/ defend); any other differences?
What would the Defence Force look like?
Fijian, I think.
As a Scot I think I should post up my thoughts for others to ponder and also to allow me to process it as this is rather close to home. For a Kick off the SNP have always said as far as I remember they would be in the EU but out of NATO the reason for out of NATO is principally because of the nuclear issue. In the EU I think is frankly moronic because in my opinion that does not tally with being a nationalist party when you support a policy of giving away massive chunks of power to Brussels which is similar to Westminster having a say in things. Also given the importance of fisheries to large parts of the Highlands and Islands economy should count against common fisheries although much of the sea food produced is exported to other EU countries so that is a double edged sword.
However the thing to think about is who would be in power post independence sure the SNP will still be about for a while but what next they would have accomplished their goal and would probably be little different than other parties. Also beyond the Scottish Central belt most of the population I would say is not really all that left leaning sure they support the SNP which is toward the left but that is because they see Labour as a waste of space and the Tories well need I say more. So who knows what end of the right left spectrum Scotland would be at after independence we would probably end up largely somewhere in the middle.
Coulport and Faslane is a curious thing because although the SNP hold an anti-nuclear stance I don’t really think they could just close the bases and devastate the local and regional economy just because they don’t like nukes. As for the wider military we would probably be left as others have suggested with a defence force along the line of the Republic of Ireland albeit it with an arrangement with the UK for QRA or some armed Hawks. There would also have to be greater emphasis on the maritime side of things with the vast areas of the Highlands and Islands to patrol as well as an offshore energy industry to protect and monitor.
As I’ve perhaps said before I don’t support the independence movement as I would like to see a Federal system of some sort with a large degree of individual power devolved to the member states essentially a mini EU of the British Isles. Hell who knows if it was done correctly we might even tempt Ireland back into a United Kingdom of sorts although that would be wildly optimistic in the real world.
As a Scotsman, I would go the Icelandic or Swiss path; preserve enough light infantry militia to ward off annexation, but I would not see the need for larger expenses.
You won’t find a much safer spot on Earth.
i’m welsh and even plaid cymru know that independence is a pipe dream, yes quite often we get screwed by the london boys, but that is equaled out by other things. There are afew nutters who want it but they are card carrying nutters, who frankly can kiss my velvet do-nut!!
Can’t see the shipyards of the north east and merseyside being too upset if all the building/refurbs of the navy come their way!! If you can build the subs in barrow can you not base the subs there, barrow would get a major economic boost, if not big enough have a north/south split ie plymouth barrow.
mind you would that mean euan would have to log on via a .co.sc ip!!
Euan – can Scotland afford complete, true independence – I am mean financially ?
I think not, and I am pretty sure that a fully independent Scotland would be an EU basket case that could not afford any defence forces at all.
Note that if the allegedly rabidly independent Quebecers managed to fail every referendum or vote held so far, even at the height of the Bloc de Quebecois influence, do any of us really think the people of Scotland would want full and complete independence ???
There is almost no appetite for independence in Wales – the referendum for the assembly barely passed. Notional ndependence for Northern Ireland is the long-term end game for the peace process as staying in the Union will not satisfy one half and joining Eire is unacceptable to the other. NI independence I assume would consist of a lot of co-operation with Great Britain and Republic of Ireland on defence due to its tiny size. Scottish independence would complicate this further. It is pretty likely that if Scotland applied to the EU they would be let in – the big question is whether they join the Euro, or want to, or would be allowed to. Much closer EU defence co-operation could make some of the problems of them leaving the Union less complex but that doesn’t seem on the cards to me. Interesting and certain to be messy.
The rescue helecopters and the maritime servalance is currently an agrement within nato to provide it over a certain area, not just our ecanomic exclusion zone.
This is shown by our funny agrement with the republic of ireland. If a rescue is over a cirten distance from there coast (the range of there helecopters) Then the RAF take over even if it is still in irish waters, because are helecopters have a longer range. even to the point that they land in ireland to refuel.
So scotland would have a huge area of the north adlantic to patrol at great expence.
so they might think twice about nato.
I dont want to see the union split :/
But if it did, it’d be in scotlands interest to have defence kept as it is, as the economy wouldn’t allow them to buy much military hardware when they have all the other institutions to pay for… get real.
If they did go it alone, then I echo the idea of Ireland/Iceland in having a militia and prodominantly boarder force.
I did remember be told though, that the shetland islands rather opposed independance and would even remain part of the union if the mainland split O.o
lol and with the carriers, well there’s always Gibraltar! The rock does have an dry-dock specially built for a flat-top! XD
I think and hope that most scots like the snp policies for uni fees and pensioners and this was more a protest at lib dems than a real call for independence. I personally dont think its in any ones interest to split up the UK but if it did the UK may retain its bases under the same lines as it does in cyprus.
Scotland has a massive economic exclusion so it would need lots of patrol vessels to police it. so the need an air force and a navy. They might not need much of an army becose they can take a back seat to international affeirs.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_exclusion_zone#United_Kingdom
Jed I do think it is feasible for Scotland to stand on its own although who knows in reality with the high probability of the people calling the shots not being any better than anywhere else in the UK. There is still Oil and Gas money coming in and there will be for some time so if that was wisely invested in ‘renewable energy’ then the wind, wave and Hydro power available in Scotland would be one of our main exports. The Highlands and Islands could survive and generally does on a mix of tourism, crofting and other farming such as fisheries as well as the various offshore industries such as the expanding wind energy sector. The biggest problem I see though is the densely populated Central belt which is not all that nationalist because of the amount of state support needed and Labour being the main political force. I live on the Fringe of the Central belt in a lovely area and my dad commutes to Glasgow for work but generally I find it all really dull, grey and depressing so no wonder it’s a solid labour seat both locally and nationally.
So no I don’t think we would be a basket case however you’re quite correct I think we would be far too optimistic to expect anything that military nuts like us would recognise as a defence forces more like a specialist police unit. Who knows though the lunatics may run the asylum and piss away the remaining Oil and Gas revenue on free bus passes for the elderly alongside blanket university and college education for the masses. Sure it would get them re-elected but it would be a short sighted waste of money and would bite everyone in the backside years down the line when that easy income disappears.
RE “Fijian, I think”
- didn’t they get bored in Iraq,and asked to be transferred to A-stan, to see some action
- so equally fierce as the original highlanders? Or more so…
Speaking as a Merician I wish the English would leave too and gives us compensation for the revenue they stole from our treacle mines……
I am glad somebody mentioned the EU and nationalism; hour the Irish mainstream parties reconcile membership with independence I don’t know. How independent was Ireland anyway? Consider that even when their economy fails we have to give them money because 90 years on our two economies are that closely enmeshed that we had to it to save ourselves further hurt.
If the Scots did vote for independence no UK prime-minister would dare sign off a financial aid package to recompense the Scots for oil. It would be political suicide. I think if the EU tried to make us do it it would take us out of the EU too.
The big issue for me for a long time has been Scottish, Welsh, and NI MPs voting on English matters. Taking them out of the equation and some past Labour majorities on these issues look very thin. I actually favour English devolution; England is the only state in the EU without its own parliament. If England gained its own house the Commons could become a “federal” upper house. This would also probably remove the need for a House of Lords.
As for defence well I suppose Scotland would come to resemble Ireland or New Zealand. A brigade of infantry, a few patrol ships, and a few helicopters. That is another thing I don’t understand about the EU, how come some states want an EU army a la the US, and yet some parts want to be neutral. Of course that is me being a silly Little Englander believing those nasty rumours that the EU wants to steal my country…..
RE “as I would like to see a Federal system of some sort with a large degree of individual power devolved to the member states essentially a mini EU of the British Isles”
- next to Switzerland, Spain has already done this… that’s why the “Madrid gvmnt” needs to make noises about Gib, otherwise the Belgian situation is close: Only the King, national fooball team and beer keeps the national image together (beer in Spain is very regional, so forget that one!)
- and here, forget the football team(s), but there is more to the United Enterprise?
“Scotland has a massive economic exclusion so it would need lots of patrol vessels to police it. so the need an air force and a navy. ”
Hardly. A maritime police / coast guard with low cost equipment suffices entirely.
Probably in the EU, out of NATO, out of Commonwealth
The UK would have little choice but to guarentee Scottish Neutrality, whether the skirt wearers want it or not.
Sensible? When did that enter the equation.
One of the other ports. Lets face it, if there one thing England has in abundance, its deralict port towns.
A couple might cut their nose of to spite your face (liverpool? Newcastle), the rest would happily be sodomised to be the base for the nuclear subs.
Scots would be more than welcome in the British Army, we let basicaly anyone in as it is.
The equipmnent would be divied up based on scotlands needs and wants, provided they didnt take the piss.
And anyone chanting, its scotlands oil, better read up on how sea boundaries are drawn (extend the land boundary) look at said boundary on a map(angles north west), say bugger, and then realise its a giant bugger when Orkney and Shetland stay in the Union….
@ DomJ re the O & S Islands.
If we have to fight for the islands at least the RAF will be able to give the fleet air cover….
More seriously it seems anybody who speaks up for Orkadian or Shetland independence is seen as the lunatic fringe. It seems the islanders are happy for the Scots to steal their oil and gas. The Scots like the Spanish over Gib don’t see it as problem.
They should take a leaf out of their Norse cousins the Manx and our cousins in the South Atlantic.
what I wonder about with regards to an Independent state North of the border is where will English vessels be built? Do we regenerate that capability on the Tyne? there is no way that we’d let it continue on the Clyde
Perhaps the wider subject of the migration of defence industry southwards could be covered in a future post?
PS: Nationalism in Wales and Seperatism(or Irish Nationalism) in NI would increase several fold in the highly unlikely event of Scottish Independence
Look it could be a velvet divorce like Czech & Slovakia. On the other hand it could end up like former Yugoslavia. Is it really worth the risk? The English would want the Scots to take their share of the national debt. After HBOS & RBS, will banks drag down Scotland the way the Icelandic & Irish banks dragged down their countries?
What would happen to English politics? I fear the extremist parties would start to win elections.
Lets hope the Scots see the risk & opt for safety.
If Scotland wants its own defence force, then they could do two things.
Set it all up and run it themselves (no doubt they’d run it well) But when it comes to equipment they would expect on major projects to at least have some jobs in Scotland(and rightly so!) This would mostly mean share the procurement with the UK but would expect the UK to shoulder any major cock ups(because they’d have small money so it would be a big dent). Things like rifles and old land rovers would do them well, after all I don’t think Scottish MPs would undertake any of the wars the UK has in the past, so it doesn’t need such an expeditionary force. As for procurement I don’t really expect Scotland to afford such numbers like the uk does (ok we can’t afford them either!) things like patrol vessels and SAR helos. This brings me on to the second option
Then there is the second option, sort of be part of the UK on certain things. Things like patrol vessels, SAR, quick reaction can be covered by the UK with a quota(not that it probably needs any) but has some sort of say or vote if things aren’t good enough. Things like SAR and patrol vessels, they can tag along with the UK, but if equipment is too expensive to be part of it, then simply go their own route but try and keep in the training system of the UK, I expect they’d want to keep cheap as possible and this might be possible and is a nice flexible deal, something I’d be happy with.
To be honest Scotland would probably be better off with this because it would mean little cost to them as well as the UK not having to like go straight up to territory boundaries and turn around. The UK would probably like this as it means the UK still has the same level of protection and no reductions in things like quick reaction and can still shot things over Scotland.
Then you could have some Scottish regiments, squadrons etc etc of which Scotland can control. IE the UK partly funds it to some extent but if we go to war than Scotland can say these troops aren’t to be used, this equipment can’t be used. So if this were to happen, then what you would do is then set up Scotland defence force as more of an aid/logistics army, obviously you’d have all your heavy lift in the UK, but simple helos to transport some still good quantities of aid. Something Scotland could afford to do, with either hand me downs to cheap as chips helos. This could work out quite well for Scotland, they get an army, the UK still got manpower of which they would have to alter (but wouldn’t that be a good thing, doing more with less, efficiently etc etc)
Now the problems lies in jobs/economy and bases, mostly subs. I would expect Scotland would not want nuclear subs, fine the UK would just have to invest in elsewhere for this and any future clean up and liabilities have to be covered by the UK – it is our mess after all) But when it comes to jobs and the economy regarding defence(not sure what companies have operations in Scotland) The UK might as well think “why bother investing there?, not even benefiting our own local economy like it can do” And on joint procurement(bound to be some) Scotland would like jobs. Then we’d have tit for tat if the UK were to remove jobs or move the jobs elsewhere.
I think their would undoubtedly me some sort of aid or assistance to Scotland on defence, simply because it would suit our interests, ie saving lives, quick reaction.
If independence were to happen soon, then this would cause havoc with the UK nuclear policy(I’m in favour of keeping nuclear weapons) It would be another reason for the “no” camp to use and making things slightly more difficult on basing and maintenance. Then again we might be cooperating with France on nuclear weapons in future so things might be a bit cheaper.
Its would all come down to jobs, economy and nuclear. I think on everything else both parties will be flexible and accommodate each other.
As for the economics of an independent Scotland, I would expect it to retain the pound sterling or create their own currency. I do not expect them to enter in to the EU and its single currency, if they don’t like being part of the UK then being bound to europe somehow isn’t going to please the Scots either. I think an independent Scotland is best sticking close to the UK as it would allow them much more freedom in what they do. As for NATO, I wouldn’t expect them to join, if they did have a tie in with the UK, then as I’ve said before, they’d want some sort of army and control over it.
Without the £20 billion annual subsidy, Scotland can kiss good bye to free University education for all. Along with just about all of the other luxuries that they enjoy.
It’s already been estimated that fisheries and oil/gas would not be enough to support an Independent Scotland. They might have a future developing huge amounts of wave power which they then sell on to England, but it’s not half as rosey as is often made out.
http://www.oilofscotland.org/scottish_north_sea_oil.html
Independance for scotland is a matter for the scots. Whatever the English may think (and I am in the ‘it’s a dumb idea’ camp; although you might want to consider at least one pole has revealed scotish independance to be more popular with the English than the Scots).
If the Scots want out there out. It will not be the Balkans with it will be civilised. Personally it means we have to top worrying about GIUK Gap Serach and rescue in the north sea, ship buliding on the clyde etc etc, then likely it will see a benefit to English defence.
Far less land and sea to worry about, far less state subsidy etc.
‘what would happen to English politics?’
Endless Tory government. Would be deliciously ironic if the party that brought us devolution but denied England a voice as a country is all but unelectable without Scottish & Welsh seats.
England would be weaker than the UK, but it would be good to have a government looking after the interests of the majority for once.
As for the SSN/SSBN’s… Devonport? The location of new English shipbuilding industry would be interesting. I can hardly see an independent England sustaining a foreign shipbuilding industry.
I say ‘England’ because I don’t see a future UK of England and Wales as a viable state. NI would be dumped by a future England quicker than a quick thing!
What about all the Scots at the Beeb? If they all went north we would have to bring back the Potter’s Wheel to fill the empty air time.
No need to develop new naval bases or shipbuilding – there is enough space at Devonport for the entire fleet as is and still plenty left over to to build the ever shrinking number of tubs. There’s Southampton for RFAs, Appledore for small stuff and Barrow for subs. Any share of the UK defence force Scotland took would be small they are only 8% of population and 9% of GDP. They could long term afford an armed forces very similar to New Zealand’s given size, economics and geography. Not a lot of our ‘big ticket heavy’ kit would be any use to them either.
By the sounds of it then, given comments, Scotland will have the same defence capability as Jamaica.
As others have remarked, if that’s what they want then they should go ahead. I for one strongly support the union but there are so many good things about Scotland sodding off. No more Labour, ever. Billions upon billions of pound in subsidies will be saved, mind you we will probably give them to the EU instead, but that is another fight for another day.
If, a very big if i admit, Scotland were to vote for full Independence and declare themselves a Neutral country, then i think it could be a defence headache for what’s left of the UK.
How many times in history has someone attacked successfully through neutral territory to get at someone else, as that someone else believed they had a secure border as it was a neutral country?
Is it only the Germans who’ve done that?
(i can’t remember)
Wouldn’t we have a huge blind spot out to the North Sea and the Northern Atlantic?
The reason Scotland gets slightly more money under the Barnett Formula is that Scotland is actually a net contributer to the UK. Most people do not realise this at all. This then leads to seriously incorrect assumptions.
Someone posted this after someone else questioned whether Scotland would be financially viable.
*
The Labour party in 1997 changed the definition of Scottish Waters, so that water off the coast of St Andrews is now English, though this could be challenged under International rules on such things, but that leaves 83% of the oil revenue in Scottish waters. Nonetheless studies in 2005 showed that an independent Scotland with Oil Revenues of just 75% of the fields would outperform the UK (
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/923/0055551.pdf
page 36 on)
The latest GERS analysis has Scotland with a slight surplus if Oil Revenues are proportioned by Geographical share http://www.scotland.gov.uk/Resource/Doc/276248/0082927.pdf
*
As to RBS and the Bank of Scotland etc etc and the debt that’s owed as we threw all the banks a massive amount of money. Well, some would point out that as Scotland did not get any revenue from them when they were doing fine for the last few hundreds of years and that the money went to the UK Gov. then why should Scotland shoulder all of their debt now, when they had no benefit before?
That will be a tricky one….
Also they would be free to create a soverign wealth fund with some of the money from the offshore oild & gas fields. If they could funnel 15 or 20 percent per year into a fund, then in 20 or 30 years they would be more like Norway or Sweden.
With full independence Scotland would then (in time), be free to go get themselves the sort of military kit that would suit their needs, things like the Finnish Hamina class and a couple of Squadrons of aircraft like the Saab Gripen.
I think in reality, it will be some sort of federal arrangement. UK Gov. has control of defence and Foreign Policy. If that actually happens, then it will be very hard to talk the English out of wanting their own Parliment. Something the English Democrats have been yelling for for ages.
Politically, it looks like a right mess……get ready for uber hype, sensationalism, nationalism and insanity from the 4th Estate. I can imagine it already, i wonder if the internet will be able to cope with the amount of crap that will be written.
If Scotland votes for independence, we could enter happy la la land. Or very dark forces could be unleashed. For example, the English being sacked & persecuted, so fleeing Scotland. Sparking retaliation against the Scots in England. The BNP would probably win a lot of seats off Labour in Northrn England.
An English Parliament may be a toxic mix of Conservative, UKIP & BNP.
As to whether Scotland is financially self sustaining, seems to vary day to day, depending on oil price & what giveaways Salmond has just promised. Scotland might have to join the Euro & sell its soul to Brussels , if it is forced into a Greek/Irish/Portugese bail out. So they would have swapped London for Brussels. How is this an improvement?
My Mother was Scottish, I have many Scottish relatives. I want the best for Scotland, but Scotland is better off in the Union, just as it was in the early 1700s.
Ixion says “Independance for scotland is a matter for the scots.”
This is something that gets right up my nose. Cameron should get on the phone to Salmond and tell him there will a UK-wide referendum next autumn to settle the question for once and all.
Should Scotland be independent? The Scots, Welsh and Nthn Irish will vote no, the English will vote yes.
While we are on the topic I think London should be a separate “state” too……
A fascinating subject, with all sorts of ramifications.
In principle, and as others have suggested here, I favour a more federal UK with parliaments with equal powers for the four nations and an overarching UK parliament dealing with foreign affairs, defence, and macro-economic issues (not unlike the US arrangement between the federal government and the states). The main problem would be the huge imbalance in population, economic power and tax income between England and the other three, which I suspect would create all sorts of strains.
However, to return to the question: if Scotland became fully independent and out of NATO (whether or not they joined the EU doesn’t matter so much to defence), I would expect some phased changes affecting the current defence establishments in Scotland.
It would be inconceivable for the UK to leave its nuclear deterrent based in a foreign country for very long, so I would expect to see the boomers withdrawn to Devonport regardless of the Scottish government’s views on the nuclear issue.
I would also expect to see other UK defence facilities withdrawn from Scotland over time, although this would be less of a political hot potato.
The Scots have a reasonable case to inherit a proportion of the current defence equipment, although there would probably be a substantial mismatch between what they would want and what the UK would want to give them.
The Scottish regiments would be an interesting issue: it doesn’t necessarily follow that they would be handed over to Scotland (we have a Ghurka regiment, after all). It also doesn’t necessary follow that Scotland would want them all anyway. I would expect to see some dividing up and shuffling around.
As far as shipbuilding is concerned, the UK government might privately welcome the situation: with little in the way of domestic capacity to protect, they could put all warship purchasing out to international tender and probably save a large chunk of money.
I agree with those who suggest that Scotland’s own defence needs (given that it became a neutral country) could best be met by some OPVs and lower-level MPAs, plus a small and lightly equipped national guard type of ground force.
The interesting question would emerge if Russia started feeling its oats again and sent recce flights over Scottish waters – or even Scotland itself. The Scots would then be faced with three unpalatable options: putting up with it; compromising their neutrality by reaching an agreement with the UK over providing air cover; or setting up an air defence sysem with planes having some serious intercept capability (which would be extremely expensive).
I think that the Orkney & Shetland issue is a bit of a red herring; it’s hard to imagine them not being counted as a part of Scotland, whether they like it or not.
Orkney & Shetland might rediscover their Viking past & vote to rejoin Norway. They would probably get a better deal from Oslo, than they would from Edinburgh.
If Scotland left the uk and decided not join NATO then we have a interesting problem with qra. The uk is responsible for NATO airspace over the north sea north western approaches ect an independant Scotland would only have to provide air defence to the 12 m limit with leeming almost gone as a flying station where would we base a/c. Like wise sar especially with ni still being in the uk we have a far bit of north atlantic to cover which current done from prestwick.
The Scottish vote is to be understood as a protest note to Westminster, I’m just not sure to whom they may be attributes. Scotland stopped voting Tories a long time ago, so the overall effect on the current gov is very little.
I would also bet that a direct translation into referendum votes is very problematic. First, they are accounting only to 45%. Second, the whole south including Glasgow and Edinburgh is not safe in the separatist haven.
A few word on the SNP; internally, it’s a leftist movement playing the nationalism harp. This is no good combination, it’s the recipe of most latin american caudillos.
But let’s assume, they did it.
If the Scots would be independent, they would retain a bail-out banking sector, an Westminster-dependent industrial sector and very few else. Economically, it would be desastrous.
Under the SNP, I expect them to join not only the EU but also the Euro-zone at once. They would not join NATO, but retain a Commonwealth membership.
Internally, there will be very strong tensions between SNP-majority regions and the other ones (Orkney & Shetlands, Dumfries and Berwickshire being notable). A separated Scotland would break apart like butter in the sun.
The UK should be transformed into a federal state like germany, where Bavaria has strong separatist forces, too.
The SNP is planning to genererously allow the English military to continue using Scottish bases!
“Cake and eat it” springs to mind.
If the Scots want the oilfields then they will have to take over the military patrolling and SAR that covers them.
The UK should start playing hard ball now. There is no point building barracks on Scottish airfields for heavy armour returning from Germany, if those facilities will become Scottish and then we have to move the tanks south…..
quite simply, it won’t happen.
as a firm unionist i encourage a referendum on independence; it would be soundly beaten, and with any luck we could mute the bleating and whining from scots-nats for a few more years.
Full disclosure: The rest of my family lives in Scotland.
@Paul R
‘expect on major projects to at least have some jobs in Scotland(and rightly so!)’ – Are you referring to current procurement or future? We’re discussing independence here, not greater self-rule and an independent sovereign country has absolutely no right to expect any slice of another’s budget.
‘you could have some Scottish regiments..of which Scotland can control’ – Given past, albeit currently unsuccessful, legal challenges on whether the Gurkhas are mercenaries, I can’t see how the UK would want to muddy the water further by using Scottish-owned troops that haven’t even joined the remaining British Army.
Unless the economy goes bad, there may be recruitment problems across the whole of a notional Scottish Defence Force, for the SNP will likely see their army for homeland self-defence and some limited UN missions only (just like the Irish); any Scottish servicemen (esp. infantry) wanting to test themselves in significant action will want to join the UK military.
Some subs would need to be repositioned in the north of England (i.e. not in the SE) for quick access to the North Sea and North Atlantic. I’m sure that some Northern ports would take them regardless of being Nucs due to the investment and Jobs.
I agree with your prediction of recruitment problems for a Scottish Defence Force, Wstr.
The British army is disproportionately Scottish, but the SNP has said that it would not maintain funding for Scottish armed forces at a level proportionate to the current UK budget.
So for starters, if you’re a Scot serving in the British Army at the time of independance, you can’t hope to be guarenteed a job should you want to leave and join the Scottish Army instead. And as you say, while Ireland plays its role on the international stage, it is a smaller role and so perhaps a less varied, exciting and challenging role than what an Irish citizen might find in the British Army.
So maybe not ‘join the army and see the world’, but maybe ‘join the army and march around Edinburgh Castle in a kilt’.
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The SNP have said that the referendum will not take place in the first half of their five year term, so it’s not for a while yet.
I wonder for how long a ‘no’ vote would kill the idea of seperation.