About Think Defence

Think Defence hopes to start sensible conversations about UK defence issues, no agenda or no campaign but there might be one or two posts on containers, bridges and mexeflotes!

413 thoughts on “Open Thread – Politics and Business I

  1. x

    I wonder how much of that £4billion worth of kit will end up go for dispersal and scrap for a total price a lot less than £4billion? Does this mean the Afghans are not getting any of our MRAPs?

  2. Observer

    I’m more worried about the Taliban treating the withdrawing train convoys as weapons buffet tables. All you can eat for free!!

  3. Think Defence

    The only bits of kit that will 100% be coming back are the vehicles in the core equipment fleet, CVR(T), Warrior, CR2 variants etc.

    Looks like we may well be leaving Ridgebacks but bringing Panthers back, the world has gone mad!!

  4. x

    Well seeing as we have supposedly kicked the Italians in the teeth over MARS at least we can offer them the opportunity to make lots and lots of spare for Panther.

  5. Think Defence

    Who do you think said this

    I worry that the legacy of recent conflicts is that one-and-a-half unpopular wars may create a permanently unpopular concept of intervention, and yet the rapidly changing security landscape means an ambivalence to defence and security policy would undermine our interests and values.

  6. ArmChairCivvy

    If its Murphy, then it is about making his Shadow Review look important
    - however, that one has such a long and drawn-out time table that it is clearly an exercise in producing ammunition for the next general elections

    BTW: it was well said, very concise aand 100% accurate

  7. jedibeeftrix

    Agreed AAC, this is a crucial point:

    “I worry that the legacy of recent conflicts is that one-and-a-half unpopular wars may create a permanently unpopular concept of intervention, and yet the rapidly changing security landscape means an ambivalence to defence and security policy would undermine our interests and values.”

    As that chatham house study made clear, the majority in favour of an interventionist foriegn policy is slim, and could easily be reversed into a minority with another protracted and nasty war that doesn’t command public support.

    On that day we say goodbye to nukes, carriers, the ability to conduct division level ops out of area, and much of our RAF enablers such as airlift and Gstars.

  8. ArmChairCivvy

    Hamas is starting to worry about this kind of talk (they publicly stated that they will pass this round)
    “Marine Gen. James Mattis, the commander of U.S. forces in the Middle East, didn’t come out and endorse U.S. intervention in Syria. But he did everything short of it, playing up the opportunity for the U.S. to bloody the nose of an Iranian proxy. Mattis told a Senate panel that knocking off dictator Bashar Assad would represent “the biggest strategic setback for Iran in 25 years.”

    A proxy war against Iran sounded like the most compelling rationale for involvement in Syria to Mattis, who testified on Tuesday morning before a Senate Armed Services Committee strongly concerned with aiding the Syrian rebels and checking Iranian influence in the Mideast. Prompted primarily by Sen. John McCain, who endorses U.S. airstrikes on Assad’s forces, Mattis said Iran’s “link to Lebanese Hezbollah will be cut if Bashar Assad goes,” and that “providing arms” to the Syrian opposition “is perhaps an option.””
    - the real heavy weights, Panetta and Dempsey will be heard tomorrow re: Syria and options for dealing with the situation

  9. Gareth Jones

    @ ACC – The Syria situation is all about Iran-US. Should Assad fall then Iran not only loses her one regional ally (?)but also her link with Hezbollah and Hamas. Throw in a strike by Israel (probably during the US election to avoid any serious consequences from the US) and the entire region to ignite. If Iran blocks the Strait of Homus and we’ll probably be dragged in.

  10. Topman

    Not much good news, an extra £250 for those on less than £21k, a reduction in the LSA at each level so fewer days needed to progress, that’s about it. NEM due to release it’s findings in the Autumn.

  11. jedibeeftrix

    i have the 2007 edition and wondered at what point i can justify updating it………. 2013! :)

  12. jedibeeftrix

    “81. For the UK submarine industry, there is work on the Astute submarines to around 2025 after which there are possibilities of follow-on work or of alternative warship 29 building at Barrow. Without a Trident replacement, there will be serious questions about the future viability of the UK submarine industry. BAE Systems is a world-class defence specialist so it is unlikely that it will decide to enter completely new civil markets. Often, proposals for conversion from defence to civil activities (e.g. tanks to tractors; submarines to washing machines) represent a triumph of hope over experience (magic wand economics).”

  13. Desk Jockey

    “Most towns have adjusted well to pit closures…” Not sure many of those towns would agree with that statement! There is still a hell of a lot of resentment about it.

    I think they are making the classic mistake of assuming a ‘Givernment intervention’ to adjust the labour market would work. Experience has shown that this would be rather optimistic…

  14. Fat Bloke on Tour

    Jedi … @ 2.36

    The report shows the bald rip-off that is the nuclear club.
    The numbers employed at BiF goes down but the cost keeps going up.
    AWE as a make work scheme for nice middle class chaps in the SE / TV.

    BWoS / Subs is a joke, a giant vampire squid sucking the life blood out of the MOD.
    It’s lack of export business tells you all you need to know.
    Rocket up a few erses time.

  15. x

    Re Pit Closures

    Most miners did very well out of it. A good number around here invested in small businesses. They now spend their days on the golf course complaining about the Tories. My father is an electrical engineer many miners could buy and sell him. Most pit electricians spent there shifts asleep and were earning twice as much as my father working 50 hours managing projects that cost hundreds of thousands. Growing up the miners’ kids were always first to have the latest stuff, miners’ were the first to on foreign holidays, always had new cars. I don’t think Mrs Thatcher did the right thing sacrificing our energy security on the open market. But to say miners were hard done by is a load of bollocks.

  16. Fat Bloke on Tour

    X @ 4.19

    I have to disagree.

    There has been a huge human toll to the end of deep mining in many areas of the country.

    It took the Valleys 20+ years to get out of the slump that the closure of the mines generated. They are still paying a huge human cost as the villages shrink, the mobile move away and the local work ethic wilts.

    I fear you lived in Barnsley / Selby and played with the children of the miners who were on good bonus as the mechanisation took off. I fear you forget that not all miners were on that level of wage.

    As for your point about cars – they were all Ladas.
    Togliatti was on overtime up until the Miners Strike.
    Now look at them – the only damage Maggie did to Russia.

  17. Observer

    @James

    That is common in Indian military deals, when one supplier wins the bid, the competitor will then lodge a complaint and queer the whole process to force a restart. Funny thing is that this ended up blacklisting almost all suppliers :) Go take a look at their artillery program and see who got blacklisted.

  18. x

    @ FBOT

    Don’t care what you think. I come from a mining area. my granddad was a miner all his life as were several great uncles. Even my other grandfather did a spell after leaving the army. I went to school with miners’ kids; well those kids that didn’t somehow end up going to the local independent. I have dead ancestors in all three of bid mining accidents that occurred within a 3 mile radius of where I sit their bodies never recovered. I know what the likes of the BBC and academia say about miners and the strike of 84. But I have lived with the reality. So I don’t give a flying toss whether you agree or disagree or whatever.

  19. Fat Bloke on Tour

    X @ 4.50

    I too live in a mining area.
    My experience is different from yours.

    The guys at the face and the guys opening up new areas made good money but they were not sending their sprogs to private schools.

    Consequently we will have to agree to disagree.

  20. El Sid

    Sad to see Hawker Beechcraft looks like it is heading for Chapter 11 courtesy of the debt that got piled onto it when private equity bought it from Raytheon. Looks like they’re aiming for some kind of pre-pack bankruptcy, it just goes to show that even Goldman Sachs don’t get it right every time!

    Fun and games with the various AT-6 deals going pear-shaped, the lawyers are now getting involved since the USAF cocked up the paperwork.

  21. ArmChairCivvy

    balance of combat aircraft types; Russia seems to be less inclined to tread the multi-role road than countries in the West:
    - 60 air-superiority fighters
    - 100 multirole
    - 140 long-range strike
    these being grand totals and therefore include the negligible numbers already in service.

    Towards the end of the article http://www.ainonline.com/aviation-news/ain-defense-perspective/2012-03-30/russian-commander-explains-air-force-acquisition-plan
    there seems to be a confirmation that the next-gen Herc is well on its way (when the spec emerges, will be interesting to see where it settles on the Herc – Grizzly axis as for size/capacity)

  22. ArmChairCivvy

    The Independent has different information from what was originally released: rail-to-sea now in Estonia, instead of Germany?
    “What happens next?

    Equipment leaves Uzbekistan on a rail link into Central Asia through Russia to Estonia, from where it would be shipped back home.”

  23. ArmChairCivvy

    Obama spent his first term with other alternatives than the Biden “go-commando option” being persecuted. Now (if there will be a second term)yesterday’s Wired Mag edition shares what it will look like after the 2014 drawdown:
    “Rumors have circulated for months in defense circles that the U.S. wants to retain a few bases that can serve as a staging ground for drone warfare and overhead surveillance of suspected terrorist activity in those Pakistani tribal areas. They include Bagram airfield, a huge aerial hub near Kabul; the airfields at Kandahar in the south and Jalalabad in the east, places where armed drones heading for Pakistan already take off; and perhaps a brigade-sized base called Salerno in Khost Province, just barely west of the Pakistan border and Mazar-e-Sharif, a transit and resupply hub in the north.

    To be clear, the U.S. military has not formally confirmed the desire to retain access to any of those bases. That’ll be the subject of follow-on negotiations with the Afghans”

  24. ArmChairCivvy

    Another, more recent one (today, by David Axe)from Wired Mag:
    -before the quote, their tactics will be of course exactly the opposite to what is let out (F-15s using the AMRAAMs as BVR and turning away before being reachable by IR missiles, and the F-22s taking the hand-off’s for the already fired AMRAAMs)
    “The Air Force fixed the F-15s and partially patched up the F-22s just in time for the escalating stand-off over Iran’s suspected nuclear weapons program. In March the Air Force deployed the Massachusetts Air National Guard’s 104th Fighter Wing, flying 20 standard F-15Cs, to an “undisclosed” air base in Southwest Asia — probably either Al Dhafra in the United Arab Emirates or Al Udeid in Qatar. The highly-experienced Massachusetts Guardsmen, who typically have several years more experience than their active-duty counterparts, would be ready “should Iran test the 104th,” said wing commander Col. Robert Brooks.

    Upgraded F-15Cs from the 18th Wing in Japan joined the Guard Eagles. The Japan-based fighters have the latest APG-63(V)2 and (V)3 radars, manufactured by Raytheon. They’re electronically-scanned radars that radiate many individual beams from fixed antenna clusters and track more targets, faster, than old-model mechanical radars that must physically swivel back and forth. The 18th Wing is working up a fleet of 54 updated Eagles spread across two squadrons. The video above, shot by an F-15 pilot, depicts some of the wing’s training.

    F-22s followed this month. “Multiple” Raptors deployed to Al Dhafra, according to Amy Butler at Aviation Week. Air Force spokesman Capt. Phil Ventura confirmed the deployment. It’s not clear where the Raptors came from. If they’re from the Alaska-based 3rd Wing, they’re the latest Increment 3.1 model with boosted bombing capabilities in addition to the standard air-to-air weaponry. In any event, the Middle East mission represents the first time F-22s are anywhere near a possible combat zone.

    The mix of old and upgraded F-15s and ultra-modern F-22s is no accident. When the Pentagon stopped producing the nearly $400-million-a-copy Raptor after 187 units — half as many as the Air Force said it needed — the flying branch committed to keeping 250 F-15Cs in service until 2025 at the earliest. Pilots began developing team tactics for the two fighter types.

    “We have a woefully tiny F-22 fleet,” said Gen. Mike Hostage, the Air Force’s main fighter commander. So the flying branch worked out a system whereby large numbers of F-15s cover for small numbers of Raptors that sneak in around an enemy’s flank in full stealth mode. “Our objective is to fly in front with the F-22s, and have the persistence to stay there while the [F-22s] are conducting their [low-observable] attack,” Maj. Todd Giggy, an Eagle pilot, told Aviation Week.”

  25. michael p

    I know too some this will be off topic but with this government writing into law that the DIfD budget is 0.7% GDP why can’t the defence budget be 2.5% GDP this would allow the MOD to allow for ebbs and flows in the economy allowing the MOD to carry a cash surplus into a slush fund to ensure that there ill be funds available for cost over runs in the equipement budget or extra funds for exercises or better still take the defence of our country out of short term policy ideas there by the chief of the defence staff gets the SDR every 5 years then the MOD plans to use the funds it has to implement the SDR results this would stop politicl partys using defence as a piggy bank to raid and use as a football maybe the the country could order the equipement it needs .

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