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Think Defence hopes to start sensible conversations about UK defence issues, no agenda or no campaign but there might be one or two posts on containers, bridges and mexeflotes!

413 thoughts on “Open Thread – Politics and Business I

  1. IXION

    Phil

    I doubt the insurgency is coherent. I do not think it has to be.

    Never mind the media a simple reading of history should have told our leaders how difficult it would be and how much effort we would need to make.

  2. IXION

    TD

    If we knew where we would end up; you would have to be truly deranged to argue we should still have done it.

  3. wf

    @IXION: I think we really need to look carefully at the “we dropped the ball on Afghanistan to go to Iraq” meme. At the time, the received wisdom was that the best way of preserving our success in Afghan was a “light footprint”, since more troops would make the Afghans feel “occupied”. In 2002-2005 the Taliban was considered a busted flush.

    Iraq was a low level war then, and had been since 1991. The Yanks and ourselves were regularly fired on patrolling the no-fly zones, and had to maintain large garrisons in Saudi and Kuwait, plus large forces on standby in case Saddam decided now was the time to get out of his box.

    Iraq may not turn out to be the democratic example to the rest of the Arab middle east that was hoped, but it’s no longer a place we worry about taking Kuwait and Saudi. The US still has a garrison in Kuwait and Qatar, but it’s aligned against Iran.

    Given that by now, sanctions against Iraq would have collapsed by now, would we have been able to mount any significant effort in Afghan? Or would we still be on perpetual standby to go back to Kuwait?

  4. x

    Phil said “But what we can have, is a Government that won’t tolerate that and harass them and allow us to go and get them if needs be.”

    ISAF has a strength of 132,000 (90,000 US) backed up by some pretty sophisticated equipment. They have spent the last 10 years not tolerating and harassing the Taliban. And as for going after them after withdrawal I think it is probably the Russians and the Pakistanis who have a greater say on who comes and goes from Afghanistan. If “we” had to go after them I doubt there would be a government in Kabul that would be friendly to “us” anyway.

    The thing with the GWOT is we, the peoples of the developed world, don’t know how safer it has made us. Obviously the world’s governments and their security agencies are handicapped because of operational security. That is assuming there is something happening. And those plots that have come to light have been amateur verging on the comical.

    The biggest threat to the West coming from Afghanistan is heroin. 67 poor souls died on 9/11, 55 poor souls on 7/7, and 398 servicemen killed in Afghanistan yet in 2006 alone, the year the UK went into Helmand, in England and Wales 713 died from Heroin. I am sure the poppy fields are lot easier to find and destroy than the Taliban.

    PS: For a while now every time I see GWOT I think it stands for Global War on Terry.

  5. x

    @ IXION said “On a more serious not can we get back to balanced forces?”

    No. Unless we can decide what the Army is for we can’t come up with a balanced force.

  6. All Politicians are the Same

    The diference between Afghanistan and Sudan, Pakistan, Yemen, Lebanon, Iraq is that in the after mentioned countries they have to act covertly and in opposition to the Govt(or at least parts of it) they do not have complete freedom to train, rehearse and plan as they want. hence the bungled and foiled attempts since 2005.

  7. IXION

    WF

    In 2002-2005 the Taliban was considered a busted flush.

    That’s the point they weren’t a busted flush, and I lack all the secret contacts and info to say they were a busted flush but at the time I bored for Britain on the ‘We are really going to regret not finish these bastards off meme’ and if I could see it, some professional somewhere damn well should have

  8. IXION

    X ok I’m game

    APATS

    There is a govt in Sudan!! When did that happen?
    In all the others the, govts are ineffectual supportive or ambivalent. There are camps in these places.

  9. wf

    @IXION: hindsight is a wonderful thing. Personally, I think the Taliban’s potency flows from where it always has: from Baluchistan and Waziristan, with a good dose of help from the ISI. We can only react, and since the Pakistanis are against us as much as with us, there is a limit to how much we can achieve.

  10. x

    @ APATS re complete freedom to train

    Yemen is twice the size of the UK with half the population.

    Yemen is 20 times the size of Ulster. Do you think this is why the IRA eventually lost? Not enough to space to train……

    And the Pakistan government have been not tolerating and harassing terrorists for decades. Pakistan BTW is a third bigger than Yemen.

  11. All Politicians are the Same

    ixion, well there are actually 2 Govts in sudan, North and South, maybe you mean Somalia? Pakistan is fractured but does not tolerate open training camps other than in border regions which are hit by the US. Lebanon has Govt and the support of Syria who are no fans of AQ. In yemen the Govt corrupt as it is is in open conflict with AQ and we have been training their security forces for the last 8 years. Iraq is most definitely not a supporter of Western terrorism too busy with internal disputes.

  12. IXION

    APATS

    You are entirely correct I meant Somalia please all feel free to laugh at mys slit of the keyboard.

    AQ are not the only terrorists out there I Know Hezbola and Iran are not fans of Al-q and Visa versa but they still have terrorist roots

  13. All Politicians are the Same

    x thanks for the geography lesson, what large underpopulated areas actually means in the real world is it is easier to spot activity that is out of place. ixion hezbolah very cleverly do not alienate themselves from the left wing socialists in the wetern world by restricting their attacks to Israeli targets.

  14. Brian Black

    The US had it in for the Taliban once they refused to arrest and extradite bin Laden for the 1999 US embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania; their unwillingness to cooperate may be linked to the US, and the West in general, refusing to recognize their new (from ’96) Islamic republic. However, the Taliban itself was never the issue that began our war. We should never have concerned ourselves with trying to build some kind of free and liberal society in Afghanistan, nor whether the Taliban may retake power once we’ve gone. If whatever regime in power in Afghanistan prevents the export of terrorism, then we’ve won – and we could have reached that point years ago. Lives spent to ensure that girls can go to school, or that our favourite corrupt politicians stay in power, have been wasted.

  15. Phil

    For once we stick things out and grasp the task. And people say its a waste of lives because it’s been hard, and difficult, and we didn’t do it all at once.

  16. All Politicians are the Same

    Brian, have you ever seen an Afghani girl beaten because she learned to read, i have. have you ever seen the difference to the community that schooling makes? have you ever asked the guys if it is worthwhile and they want to be there? Love to see you get tell either the guys out there or the girls being educated that it was all a waste of time!

  17. x

    @ APATS

    So too much space is bad? OK

    Sana’a the capital of Yemen has a population of 2,000,000 or so. And it isn’t as well laid out as Belfast (population 270,000 or so) so seeing as both Republican and Unionist terrorists operated in Belfast Sana’a must be a much better for terrorist operations. I suppose with Bin Laden being found sitting in the middle of Pakistani town supports this.

    Though I take your point. In the real world you will find terror training happens everywhere. Even out in the middle of nowhere. It happens because it is low key. There aren’t Clancy-esque training camps with ranges and assault courses. It is small groups meeting in back rooms being kept secure by locals who believe in their cause or by locals terrified into compliance. If ISAF could have TLAM Taliban’s Catterick don’t you think they would have done so by now?

    I will concede that during the Rhodesian Bush War the Rhodesians did knock seven shades out of several ZANU and ZAPO bases. Perhaps this is why today’s terrorist keep a low profile.

  18. All Politicians are the Same

    Indeed have spent a bit of time in sana forgive puctuation plse us keyboard. The point is that as corrupt as the Presidents security forces are they actively(very) seek out terrorist cells and the Yemeni SF have been trained by UK assets for a decade.

  19. ArmChairCivvy

    Hi x,

    This ” If ISAF could have TLAM Taliban’s Catterick” is what the Carter Adm did all the time; they had to give US aid & embassy staff two days warning to get secure… do you think they ever hit anything other than emptied camps?

    “I will concede that during the Rhodesian Bush War the Rhodesians did knock seven shades out of several ZANU and ZAPO bases. Perhaps this is why today’s terrorist keep a low profile.”
    - could be, but the same can and will start to happen when you have “commandos” from the country that is being fought over to clear up (it is not about surgical skill only, but about what happens next)

  20. x

    @ ACC

    Yes I know about that strike. I am speaking hypothetically.

    @ APATS

    Well if these terrorists are so darned easy to catch the war should have been over by Christmas or Ramadan or what ever holiday.

    @ Phil

    I wondered what I was downloading then.

    Anyway its a bit dusty in here, again.

  21. All Politicians are the Same

    X I never said they were easy to catch but since they have not manage to mount an offensive op in the west since 2005 that has not been caught I would say we are winning!

  22. ArmChairCivvy

    x,

    ” @ ACC

    Yes I know about that strike. ”
    - more than one?
    - but the other side has intel, as well
    - more seriously, they knew that if they evaded the strike (and then relocated), nothing else would follow
    …bad policy

  23. Mark

    No one and I mean no one wins a counter insurgency you just keep going until everyone gets tired of the killing and agree to talk. if your not out in 18 months of going in you become part of the problem. You can’t go into Helmand and remove the poppy just like that it the lively hoods of a lot of people there if you take that away people get upset and i doubt were fighting the same people we fought a year ago. x the ira didn’t lose it ulster there now a major part of running the place and doing very nicely for themselves. I don’t know how you supposed to do it but we need to find a better smarter way than we have been.

  24. x

    @ Mark re IRA

    I was talking about blessed space to train as a joke. I picked on Ulster as compared to many of these Middle Eastern states it is tiny. I wasn’t talking about the Troubles specifically with reference to the actual campaign. Ok?

    As for poppies and livelihoods though I take your point and I don’t specifically want to see Afghan farmers or their families go hungry the simple fact is heroin kills more British than terrorist activity every year. Considering the money the farmer makes on the crop. And considering world grain prices and Afghani food import levels I find it hard to believe that a field of cereals isn’t just as profitable to the farmer as poppies. This is one of the lefty value judgement call arguments isn’t it? Is the life of an Afghani worth more than a British drug addict? Burn the fields. Burn them all. Don’t pay the farmers for the poppy crop. Don’t pay them not to grow it. Drop food aid out of ‘planes if need be for a year. Drug related problems cost the NHS approximately £15billion per year. The GDP of Afghanistan, that is the white market GDP, is only about £7.5billion. (Enough to run the RAF or RN odd that……)

  25. Brian Black

    APATS, I said the lives spent have been wasted, not time. If you can reform Afghan society just by spending a little time, them fine; but if we want to fight wars for emotional rather than defensive reasons, then we could easily find ourselves in a constant state of conflict.
    There are many shit-holes around the world that we don’t feel the need to resolve through military intervention, and I don’t see why Afghanistan should be different. The UNHCR lists 3,695,000 Afghan refugees for September 2001, and 956,000 internally displaced, so there were obvious problems with that country – but no one in the West was calling for an army to go in to stabilize and rebuild the nation before then. Improving the Afghan peasants’ lot may be a noble aim, but it’s not a necessary one.

  26. Phil

    Poppies are worth too much as drugs. If they didn’t grow it someone else would. It wouldn’t be worth them growing if it wasn’t illegal over here. Playing devils advocate here. Heroin is cheap as chips out there because there isn’t the risk in handling and transporting it. Obviously how to solve the drugs problem is well out of the scope of this blog. But it’s a thought.

  27. All Politicians are the Same

    Time wasted is a general phrase regarding effort not specifically time but you know that. Afghanistan was a NATO article 5 mission and do you really believe that because you cannot help everywhere you should help nowhere? As for calling Afghans peasents? Your BNP dues are on direct debit I take it?

  28. IXION

    Apats

    Sorry but there are so many shit holes- often self inflicted.

    Somalia (Got it right that time). Went from functioning country to Mad Max status, because everyone wanted peace but only as a result of their own sides victory. Everyone in Northern Ireland wanted Peace, only after the Catholics or protestants (delete as required) were defeated.

    Palestinians want peace, the Israelis want peace, but only after victory over the other side.

    By and large the Afghans seem to want a sharia law Muslim state, even those don’t want the Taliban and want some form of democracy. In such a state the rights of women become very shaky depending upon the interpretation of the relevant clerics, constantly in danger of death for honour crimes. After all Saudi clerics have decreed that woman who drives a car is a prostitute who should be stoned to death. (I have read the Koran and could find nothing about cars in it).

    So do I feel sorry for the people of Afghan (particularly the female ones – you bet. Do I think we should go to war to ‘save’ them no. Because I am a bastard? No because I know it will not change.

    Afghanistan is the Balkans of the east. Only this time the Pommaranians had the sense to stay out.

  29. Paul R

    http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/paris-open-to-offers-to-expand-anglo-french-uav-project-368661/

    Jesus Christ, this is what is with European Military procurement at the moment. You end up letting everyone in and it becomes a right mess of “I want to do this, I won’t pay for that” It could end up very much like Typhoon. Just say no!!! If other countries want a UAV, they can do it themselves or just buy the thing after we got what we want out of it.
    This may sound protectionist, but to me multi country projects always end up being a pile of dog do do. Look how many attempts it took before we ended up going Type 45!

  30. ArmChairCivvy

    RE “many attempts it took before we ended up going Type 45!”
    - would the radar development have been undertaken at all without the initial cost sharing?

  31. ArmChairCivvy

    Radio 4 morning news puts the 3-year freeze on the improvements of accommodation into a new light
    - after 8 years of service, off you go, to the open market
    - will that really be so? Radio news tend to be one-liners without all the relevant detail (at times)

  32. wf

    @ArmChairCivvy: radar development? Perhaps not. But if we had bought Aegis like everyone else did, we would have 12 T45′s in service now, and they wouldn’t be running Windows 2000 server :-(

  33. ArmChairCivvy

    Hi wf,

    The first one in service has supposedly impressed the Yankees on exercises (I have not seen any details, though)

  34. wf

    @ACC: sure, I bet it’s radar horizon is much better than SPY-1. But it’s not been tested the way Aegis/Standard has yet (still!) and can do far fewer things. I’d rather have the 12 operational hulls too :-(

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