As we get ever close the the Green Paper and Future Security and Defence Review one of the key questions we have to ask ourselves is, who, where and when are the threats to the UK.
So in the rush to avoid buying those much maligned exquisite systems are we losing sight of a few painful lessons earned by the blood of service personnel.
In a shooting war with a serious military nation like Iran, would you rather have a top of the range piece of equipment that can over match your opponent or something that is 80%
Just a question for those advocating (us included) accepting ‘good enough’
Things aren’t always simple, are they?
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3 Comments
Good questions.
A Tranche 2 Typhoon is ‘good enough’ to take on the integrated air defence system of Iran, but a Super Tucano based COIN aircraft is not – but on the other side of the COIN, the Typhoon CAN also work in Afghanistan (albeit more expensively).
How many T45′s would you need to take on Iran in the gulf / Indian ocean ? Where is the littoral ASW capability against quiet diesel electric subs ?
Well we don’t need these capabilities apparently as we are only going to take on AK47 / RPG toting disaffected tribesmen by sticking our noses into their ancient ‘civil war’ !
OK – I admit, conventional war against Iran may not be that realistic either – but my father fought in Korea, there were times when I thought I might but we never quite got there, but I sure hope my son is not in the Canadian army if the UN ever gets dragged back into that peninsular.
In the U.S. the QDR is by law supposed to be forward looking – the recently released one is being slated by all for not being so at all, it is written like a justification for current budgets and spending focused on Afghanistan and to a lessor extent Iraq. I think the UK Future Defence Review will be similarly hamstrung from the beginning – there will be no forward looking element, it will NOT see beyond Helmand, and it will not recommend any force structure that requires more money, whatever the perceived threat is. As I have said before, I have no problem with any political party that has the guts to stand up and say we will reduce the UK armed forces to a border guards and coast guards, just be honest about it, and let the people vote on a real, truly stated agenda.
Well, I think I’m safe on this one, I’m more or less solid on the UK maintaining the ability to, if not invade and subjugate Iran, then invade Iran and beat it so badly that it convinces itself we dont exist and certainly has no interest in provoking us.
If that comes at the price of not being able to involve ourselves the 4000 year long afghan civil war for very long, so be it.
Low end and 80% is trickier
My support of low end equipment has usualy been on a purely financial basis, is cheaper to use x,y or Typhoon for this specific role and will it remain cheap enough for long enough to pay for itself.
We’ve been in Afghanistan for 8 years now.
I also called for a cheaper guided(?) missile.
But then, I’m happy with the 80% solution most of the time, although thats my 80% measure, I might not support your 80% measure.
I prefer Typhoon at a cost of about £60m over Raptor at a cost of £226m.
(I’m not sure if that £60m includes development costs or not, even if they’re extra, it gives a cost of £120m).
I dont support the BAE Hawk as our frontline fast jet, or the Super Tucano, neither of which is good enough.
Who is the bigger security threat is maybe not the correct question as both are but in different ways, the question in my mind is which we perceive rightly or wrongly to be the greater threat. However both of these are second to the main threat to our security and that is ourselves and those we elect into Government.
However between the two I would of course have to choose Iran as it has the ability to close the Gulf of Oman and Strait of Hormuz therefore significantly decrease the amount of available oil. Not only would the waterways be closed but Iran would also most likely attack and destroy many of the oil facilities in the Gulf. This would have longer lasting consequences as it would take months to repair facilities and bring them back on stream meaning although Iran could be beaten back the damage would have been done. This is a problem thanks to the United Kingdom’s pitiful reserves so we would feel it far more than other nations. I doubt even the Military keep large stocks of fuel stored for the unexpected unlike most major militaries so anything available would have to be requisitioned for military use. Essentially the UK would be in extremely deep smelly stuff as there are little in the way of reserves not much North Sea oil and any available fuel would be severely rationed as the military and vital services would need the majority. Oh! and let’s not forget Gas prices are linked to oil prices so Gas would become unaffordable for creating power and heating homes causing even more trouble.
Although the allied forces in the Gulf would manage to push back Iran the damage would still be done to important facilities by Iran’s array of ballistic missiles and other weaponry. Not to mention the fact that quite a few allied warships could be damaged in surprise attacks most important among these US CVN’s. Iran would no doubt be in one hell of a state after a full scale allied attack it could even escalate to a nuclear level depending on events or although not really possible Iran could be invaded by allied forces. If Iran itself acquires nuclear weapons then we are really talking about the possibilities of extremely unpleasant scenario involving nuclear attack on more than one nation. Doomsday scenario maybe but it’s not beyond the realms of possibility of what could and may happen in the near future if Iran decides to do something that we may regard as stupid. Iran doing something major is reasonably remote but that does not mean implausible and the damage Iran could inflict should not be underestimated.
Now that I have possibly made myself seem like a loon just have a long think about what could happen when a large nation of 70million people fuelled by religion decides to go AWOL :-)