One of the more widely accepted notions is that a strategic defence review must always be led from a strategic perspective, the clue being in the name!
Decide what you want the armed forces to do, decide how you want to configure them and then provide the funds, in full.
The 1998 SDR was widely considered to be an excellent document but it was never funded properly. The end result was a load of aspirations and a seriously top heavy set of capabilities that have been seriously exposed when faced with changing circumstances. The MoD has lurched fron one short sighted decision to the other, adding massive bills for tommorrow all driven by expedience.
So whilst we might all agree that a strategy led FDR is the most sensibe option is it the best.
What if we started with a fixed long term budget and worked out what we could do within it?
Decide needs and fund accordingly is the better option, by miles, in theory but it wont happen.
Its simply to attractive to “need” something (a headline sound bite) one day and not “need” something (a bill) the next.
So decide funds and prioritise needs accordingly it is.
I don’t think the politicians of any UK party have the balls to stand up and say “this is how much cash your getting – what entire capabilities nurtured over decades if not centuries do you want to get rid of ?”
Honesty no longer seems to be a trait of politics. It is better to lie in order to be elected than actually stick to your principles. So Tories will be elected, FDR will appear to put strategy first, and then the UK armed forces will continue to be ruined by the death of a thousand cuts….
BUT – on a brighter note, I would like to wish Admin and all the contributors a very Merry Xmas, I believe the UK actually has more snow than my part of Canada ! So stay warm, have fun with your
families, and all the best for the new year.
But spare a thought for both British and Canadian forces who will be having a different type of Xmas.
Jed I agree with that observation, no politicians will have the balls to publically stand up and say ‘you have X amount of money now get on with it’ however behind the scenes I suspect that is what the treasury will be saying to the MoD. The problem with this is service politics, who gets what and who should get priority, publically this depends on who has better PR and can convince a public largely uneducated on defence. I honesty fear for the future of the Royal Navy as the current conflicts are perhaps perceived by many to be an Army and RAF operation when in actual fact the Royal Navy is a major part of the operations. Many also forget that the burden of the United Kingdom’s security and standing in the world is largely dependent on the Royal Navy not the Army or RAF we are regarded as a maritime nation but we in the UK seem not to notice. Sorry for sounding like a stuck record but the SDR will be tough on the RN which cannot take anymore without massively changing our stance to a North Atlantic focused navy without expeditionary capabilities. I would note in addition that the RAF and Army also cannot really handle anymore cuts as they are already below critical mass so more cuts would essentially require changing our political tone. So simply, Yes death by a thousand cuts is what will most likely continue until something changes by then it could be too late but I still have hope.
Euan I agree with all you say, which it would actually be better is some respects to stand up and say we will withdraw from Afghanistan, we our armed forces will take on a Gendarmarie role, we will only ever deploy small forces on peacekeeping (like the Canadians did for so many years) and the Navy becomes a cost guard – of course there would be public outrage but at least it would be honest. In the end the same effect will be achieved, but without any real debate within government never mind with the public…. sad…..
Putting aside the political will aspect for a moment, is it actually a good idea or not
“Putting aside the political will aspect for a moment, is it actually a good idea or not”
Yes
Its what already happens in reality anyway, across all government services.
Might as well be honest about it.